A Storm Builds
Keep the people of Texas and Louisiana in your prayers as Hurricane Laura moves inland. It is still a hurricane as it approaches Arkansas.
I want to deal with several topics this morning. Let’s start in Wisconsin
Rittenhouse
I encourage you to read this thread from a New York Times reporter. It makes it appear Kyle Rittenhouse was protecting his life in self defense.
The reporter leaves out that someone threw a Molotov Cocktail at Rittenhouse and also that Rittenhouse had been knocked over and was being beaten with a skateboard when he fired shots that killed people. That, however, is documented in the videos that have surfaced.
Even without those details, the New York Times makes a compelling case that Rittenhouse was acting in self-defense. Also, the three people shot were nefarious people with criminal records.
All that said, I think it is important to note that Rittenhouse showed up in Kenosha to fill a vacuum left by the police who could not protect everything. I think that is a bad thing and we should not encourage citizens to go to cities in which they do not live to stand in place of police despite no training. As much as the Democrats need to forcefully denounce the riots, I think the GOP needs to speak up on this.
I am aware the police thanked Rittenhouse and his group for being there. I think Rittenhouse most likely defended himself and is not a bad guy. But I think non-police showing up like this is unwise and ultimately unhelpful.
The Convention
I continue to think the first night of the GOP convention was the best, but the speeches have been great throughout. I can understand why Joe Biden and the Democrats are concerned that Trump could be making inroads with black men. In fact, if the President’s team can keep up a sustained effort on this, they are going to have some impact.
Pay attention to this tweet by Nate Cohn at the New York Times:
Joe Biden got penalized after the DNC. That’s right. Donald Trump is the one who got the Democrats’ bounce. On top of that, Trump has an edge in the Electoral College. These things really do matter. The President is having a successful convention and benefited from the Democrats’ convention.
This means the Democrats are going to amp up their attacks. It is just hard for them to do that when it turns out the Democrats really undermining law enforcement. Just consider Virginia.
On Wednesday, the Virginia Senate voted 21-15 to pass Senate Bill 5032, which would allow an assault against a law enforcement officer to a misdemeanor if the person attacked is not hurt.
The Democrats are stepping on their story. It doesn’t help that they have only gotten vocal about the violence in cities after the polling shifted. They should not have needed polling to tell them Middle America doesn’t like this stuff.
The President is consolidating white support and pulling over black and Hispanic male voters. That is not good for Biden. Biden certainly still has a lot of advantages, but if the virus fades, the President has a lot of options moving forward.
The Bubble
I really get the sense the NBA quitting (temporarily?), the news coverage of Kenosha as “mostly peaceful,” etc. will work to the President’s advantage. Democrats and the press tend to dwell within the same bubble and that bubble is increasingly removed from Middle America.
Middle America wants their 401(K) secure and their streets safe. They’ve been turning against Trump because of the economic turmoil related to the virus as much as for his leadership over the virus itself. But the markets are doing well, retirement accounts are rebounding, and cities look like they’re on the verge of collapse.
The President wins on crime, guns, and the economy. The media portraying burning buildings as mostly peaceful and the Democrats ignoring the issue at their convention have been major errors for the GOP to exploit. Polling suggests it is working to Trump’s favor.
With the virus situation, it is more that Biden can lose than Trump can win and right now the Democrats seem intent on snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
A Cautionary Word
All the stagecraft, messaging, themes, and people in support of the President can be undercut with a single tweet. The President is his own worst enemy in that regard. The base may love it, but they will vote for him regardless. Republicans just spent a week trying to give people who hate the President an excuse to vote for him. Polling suggests they were headed in the right direction.
Unfortunately, President Trump too often steps on his own momentum. In 2016, Kellyanne Conway took away his phone. She is departing. Someone needs to serve in her role, take away his phone, and make him stay on the message so carefully put on display this past week.
Your two paragraphs under "A Cautionary Word" are almost word-for-word what I just wrote this afternoon to a lifelong friend who lives in Tucson near the Mexico border and coudn't be a stronger Trump fan.
I wrote of the need for caution--Trump can destroy in one ill-placed word or gesture tonight all the goodwill the past 3 days created.
Her rejoinder was that no one will care--his supporters adore him.
"THAT'S JUST THE POINT," I replied. "We've got to draw in the still undecided middle 20%."
The conversation continued. The rest was "A Cautionary Word" without my having seen it.
Am I living in your head?? Which one of us posted it first? LOL! Almost word-for word. :-)
Rittenhouse should not have been there in the first place. He doesn't live there, and he was breaking the law, a minor illegally carrying a firearm. The real question I have is where were his parents in all this, and why and how did they give him access to an AR-15?