No candidate who has led in polling for 22 weeks before the Iowa caucuses has ever lost a party nomination. Joe Biden led for over 52 weeks and then nearly lost everything. South Carolina saved him and Super Tuesday made him.
On Tuesday morning, the polling showed Bernie Sanders winning 10 of the 14 states at play for the day. Biden wound up winning 9 of them. Bernie Sanders was expected to beat Elizabeth Warren in Massachusetts. Joe Biden wound up beating both of them in Massachusetts. That not only has to be humiliating for Warren, but also for Sanders.
In fact, in Oklahoma, Biden had not a single paid staffer and did not run a single ad and he won the state. In Minnesota, Biden’s team had no infrastructure or spending and he won. This probably puts Amy Klobuchar on the shortlist for Vice President.
Bloomberg and Warren are now going to drop out. They have no paths forward. Bloomberg very arrogantly insisted that Biden supporters need to rally to him to stop Sanders. In fact, Bloomberg held Biden back in Texas, but I’m writing this before the votes are fully counted there and Biden is doing remarkably well even with Bloomberg holding him back. But otherwise, Bloomberg was not a factor last night except in American Samoa.
Turns out it is not easy to buy the presidency. In Elizabeth Warren’s case, like Kamala Harris before her, it turns out letting Twitter steer your campaign is not a viable path forward.
Bernie Sanders headed into Super Tuesday the man to beat and he got beat like a drum. Sanders won young voters, but not enough turned out. They never do and the media is only obsessed with them because advertisers care about 25 years in the advertising demo.
Sanders headed into Super Tuesday with a money advantage, an organizational advantage, a ground game advantage, and a polling advantage only to be stopped by Joe Biden.
This potentially makes James Clyburn of South Carolina the most influential man in the Democratic Party. His endorsement saved Biden in South Carolina and helped pave the way for a very big upset on Super Tuesday.
Now there’s a big question for Biden — can he stand on a debate stage against Sanders for two hours and hold his own? Frankly, were I Biden, I’d see no reason to even bother with more debates. Democratic voters clearly do not want Sanders. Debates will not matter.
November is coming.
On a personal note…
I like Joe Biden. I will vote for Donald Trump in November. But I like Joe Biden. We just disagree on politics. As I noted last night, I am relieved the Democratic Party has rejected a communist in favor of a patriot who opposed the Soviet Union. While I disagree with Biden politically and on public policy, I’d sleep well with him as President. Sanders would be an absolute disaster. Though I suspect President Trump would have an easier time beating Sanders, it is just too great a risk to have Sanders as a major party nominee.