What an incredible night. We still don’t know who the winner is, but the outstanding vote in the upper midwest looks Democrat. The odds still favor a Biden presidency slightly, but it is not the crushing win the Democrats wanted and President Trump still has a good shot.
As I said yesterday, it really does look like it could come down to Pennsylvania. If it does, the President has a fighting chance. But Michigan, which I truly did not expect to be as close, is very close and John James is, as I expected, outperforming the President and could get to the Senate.
What an amazing night. It turns out door-to-door voter contact and actually campaigning around the country still matter, even in a pandemic.
For the last decade, I have been saying on CNN, Fox, RedState, The Resurgent, and here that we were headed towards a realignment as black and Hispanic voters leave the Democratic Party and secular white people move to the Democrats. This is really happening now.
In Florida, Hispanic voters and young black men handed Donald Trump the state, after having handed it to Ron DeSantis two years ago.
In Texas, Hillary Clinton won Starr County with over 60% of the vote and Joe Biden will barely pull off a 5% win. That county is over 96% Hispanic. In fact, in Texas, working-class white voters and Hispanic voters saved the GOP.
The Republican Party is becoming a coalition of working-class white voters, young black men, and Hispanic voters. The media response that Hispanic and black voters want “toxic masculinity” or a “strong man” strikes me as extremely racist. Those professional political prognosticators who have hanged their hat on demography giving the Democrats a coming permanent majority have stooped to racist tropes instead of examining what is happening.
The data overwhelming shows these voters are going with the GOP over jobs and education for their kids. For the Democrats to repair this, AOC must be DOA at the policy table. The policies of the progressive wing of the Democratic Party are anathema to these voters who want a fighting chance at wealth accumulation without having the government then take it all away in the name of equity.
Donald Trump may win or lose, but the progressive agenda got slaughtered at the ballot box last night. The GOP will most likely keep the Senate. The House GOP has defied all the odds and picked up seats. Even the GOP did not expect that.
Lastly, there are some really good pollsters out there. Trafalgar, who I have been deeply skeptical of, is coming off way better than a lot of mainstream media pollsters. Ann Selzer in Iowa continues to outperform everyone. But yes, increasingly it is clear the polling industry is not going to survive. Also, I think the traditional media is probably going to die off too. It is clear that the American press last lost touch with those they supposedly report on.
We are in the realignment I expected would happen, but it is happening faster than I expected and the media and polling industry, so inside a secular progressive bubble, probably won’t hold up well even as the country comes out on the other side just fine.
Maybe instead of presuming Donald Trump’s voters are a bunch of racists and bigots, perhaps the press could do a better job and stop letting their Democrat partisans whisper in their ears to shape their coverage.
Oh, also, what was that about packing the Supreme Court? HAHAHAHAHAHAHA.
The late urban mail-in ballots will push Biden into the White House.
1. If Biden wins, the Dems are still a few Senators and 2 years away from an election that could allow them to pack the courts, and my bet is they would if they could.
2. The number of people who don't believe the MSM polls isn't going to go down anytime soon.
3. Polls like Trafalgar and Rasmussen and IBD/TIPP were once again the most reliable polls in a Trump-election, predicting a nail-biter and not a blowout.
4. Averaging polls predicting double-digit leads or 17-point WI wins will not produce reliable results.
5. The Republicans in the Senate/House arguably did well because they fought for what their base believes in and what they promised their voters they would do (as did Trump).
6. If Trump loses, it will arguably be because of moderate suburban Republicans who would rather have the Democratic-policy agenda, which is why they are called RINO's.
7. People are still going to die from Covid, even if Biden wins.