Assessments and Credibility

On Tuesday, in what it labeled an “exclusive,” CNN reported that initial intelligence assessments of the Iran bombing suggested Iran had been set back a couple of months in its quest for a nuclear weapon. The report’s lead reporter was Natasha Bertrand. In 2020, Bertrand played a lead role in attempting to discredit reports of Hunter Biden’s laptop. One cannot understand the new report without understanding that.

At Politico in 2020, Bertrand broke the news that “[m]ore than 50 former intelligence officials signed a letter casting doubt on the provenance of a New York Post story on the former vice president's son.” It turned out, of course, that Hunter Biden’s laptop actually belonged to him and there was no Russian disinformation as Democrats claimed, helpfully amplified by Bertrand.

Now, in 2025, Bertrand rushed out this salacious report. It is notable the leak came after congressional committees on intelligence were briefed. What Bertrand and then the New York Times, which subsequently reported the same news, failed to note was that the American intelligence was considered low confidence. After all, Americans had not been on site at the bombing locations.

Meanwhile, in Israel, intelligence officials built their own review of the bombings. Israel has much better intelligence inside Iran. At one point, the head of the Iranian secret police division in charge of rooting out Israeli spies was actually an Israeli spy. Israeli intelligence has concluded that Iran’s military leadership is telling Iran’s political leadership the bombings only set them back a few months. But Iran’s military actually believes they have been set back years.

Reconciling the two reports, it seems likely the American intelligence community intercepted what Iran’s military told Iran’s politicians, but Israel knows what Iran’s military leadership really thinks and probably has spies on the ground too. Israel believes Iran’s uranium is buried beyond reach. Israel does not know that Fordow has completely collapsed underground, but does believe it is inaccessible. Israel also believes key parts of Iran’s equipment to process uranium is destroyed. Israel has also eliminated the top scientists involved in Iran’s nuclear program.

We have entered a bizarro realm where those who did not want to bomb Iran insisted intelligence reports that Iran was close to a weapon could not be believed and they now insist the after-action initial intelligence reports show the bombing was unsuccessful. But they also do not want to bomb more.

It is unfortunate the American press corps has totally discredited itself. It is not just that Donald Trump pushed back against the initial intelligence assessment. The Israelis and much of the American intelligence community did too, so much so that within twenty-four hours of CNN breaking the story, the American press corps was treating it far more skeptically. Putting the Hunter Biden laptop reporter in charge of this story only further casts doubt on the story. Adding in the assessment of the Israelis, who actually have an existential reason to get their intelligence right, further casts doubt on the veracity and accuracy of the American press.

When Joe Biden was President, American reporters often treated reports about Biden skeptically. When someone from Congress or the intelligence community, which itself has a history of trying to undermine Donald Trump, leaks something negative about Donald Trump, the media pounces, seizes it, and does all the other adverbs and adjectives usually used in headlines to attack Republicans.

This was a brilliantly staged and executed operation by the Pentagon that the press attempted to discredit to attack Donald Trump. We have been starved of competence for some time in government. But the Pentagon successfully got B2 bombers in the air while distracting everyone with additional B2 bombers, then dropped fourteen bunker buster bombs — the first time they have ever been used — just two days after the President threw everyone off with his two week timeline to assess the situation. Democrats, bureaucrats in the intelligence community, and the press corps seemingly could not tolerate Donald Trump getting any political benefit from a successful bombing run.

In the end, the press just further hurt its own credibility trying to undermine President Trump. Even Wile E. Coyote would be impressed at the own goal.