BREAKING: New Data in Georgia Is Bad for the Democrats
I'm not the data analyst some of my friends are on this, but I used to do campaigns for a living and know how to read the data. Democrats have reason to fret in Georgia. Having offloaded much of their turnout machine to Stacey Abrams, it has broken down. How do I know? Follow along with me here.
In terms of percentage of registered voters, the top performing counties in early vote right now are Republican strongholds. Many of them underperformed in 2020 and the 2021 runoff where 427,205 Republicans sat out the runoff (out of a total of 700,000 2020 voters who didn't go back in 2021)
Greene County is a Republican stronghold in the lake country of Georgia. Oconee is the GOP stronghold bordering Clarke County, where UGA is. Towns, Rabun, Union, and Dawson are in North Georgia, which underperformed in 2020.
On the Democratic side, they have several key strongholds of votes outside metro Atlanta area. Clarke Couty is UGA. It is progressive, white, and highly Democrat. Bibb is middle Georgia and the Dem stronghold in the area. It is adjacent to Oconee County.
To the east is Richmond County, where Augusta is. Bibb is adjacent to Houston County, a GOP stronghold. Bibb has fewer votes but neutralizes Houston. Richmond is next to the GOP stronghold of Columbia County. Here's why I'd be freaking out if I were a Democrat right now.
The top counties turning out proportionally are GOP strongholds. Richmond and Clarke Counties are the 3rd and 4th worst early voting turnout counties in proportion to registered voters. Bibb County is the 6th worst.
GOP stronghold Columbia County has 2x as many voters turning out right now as neighboring Dem stronghold Richmond County. GOP stronghold Houston County has 2x as many voters turning out right now as Dem stronghold Bibb County. Oconee is the fourth highest turnout county right now in terms of percentage of registered voters and neighboring Clarke is the third worst turnout.
If abortion were galvanizing voters, Clarke would see a huge surge right now. It is, again, home to the University of Georgia and a very liberal enclave of white voters who’d gravitate toward abortion as an issue. But they are not turning out.
Normally, in early voting over the past several cycles, the turnout pattern is reversed. Dems turn out early. GOP turns out election day. The GOP is already surging and holding its own against Democrats who need a big early voting cushion. They're not getting it.
Democrats and their leg humpers at Georgia Public Broadcasting will tell you that the counties turning out are small with little population. Yes, that is true. But here’s the problem for them — in terms of both pattern of early voting and percentage of early vote based on registered voters, these GOP strongholds are overperforming and Democrat strongholds are underperforming in early voting. The pattern of prior cycles is reversed. If the GOP ground game is getting people out in early voting and the Democrats are not that does not bode well for Election Day when the GOP gets most of its voters out and Democrats do not.
For weeks, I've heard a lot of Democrats grumbling about Stacey Abrams' ground game. Warnock's team and the state Democrats are relying on Abrams so Warnock can spend his money on TV and targeting. Abrams is not getting people to the polls like she did in 2018. Democrats are getting heart burn behind the scenes.
I worry about Fulton County…seems like they always are the last to report, almost as though seeing where the vote is going and “adjusting” accordingly.
I guess I have to like early voting, since it spares us from long lines on actual Election Day. I have a really hard time liking it though.