Figuring Out A Path Around
I expect we are about to see a surge in Trump polling even as Iowa polling has shown a shift to DeSantis by 16 points. That might come undone. The rally effect is real.
The question will be how candidates find a path around the matter. Christie and Pence, it seems, will try to go through Trump. The others will find a path around.
The big issue is going to be loyalty and betrayal. Trump voters have an emotional connection to him. It is something I think the media misses. They so hate Trump, they want Republican candidates to go guns blazing at Trump. It is why Christie has such a strong appeal to the press.
But a candidate who really wants to win is going to have to go around Trump. Trump’s voters are loyal to him because they believe Trump has been loyal to them. To make the case to replace Trump, a candidate must find a way to convince voters that it is for Trump’s good or that, in private, they have to realize he cannot win the general. To do that, the candidate must show some level of deference.
That’s why, over the past week, most of the candidates have focused on an aggressive prosecution and abuse of prosecution and double standard. But now, led by Haley and Scott, the candidates are pivoting to “if the allegations are true, they’re bad and highly reckless behavior.” Condemn the prosecution, but note the charges, standing on their own are bad.
That won’t be enough though.
What I’m told is that some of the candidates are actively in the field meeting with Trump voters trying to find a message that works. His voters understand the predicament. At this point, it actually helps make the case for Fulton County, Georgia to indict as well. Make Trump more of a victim, but also one who needs someone else to fight for him.
Navigating this is not easy. The press, when a candidate releases a soft statement, pounces on the candidate. That’s because the press hates Trump and does not understand the internal GOP dynamics.
The candidate who can come up with the best message soonest to both be supportive while messaging these things make Trump unable to beat Biden is going to be the candidate who comes out ahead.
Those message tests are happening. We should start seeing a rhetoric shift soon.
Why can’t people see even after all the good Trump did and all of the false crap that was thrown at him he still lost in 2020. Biden was a nasty candidate in 2020 and it’s still one, even more so. But people will vote against Trump no matter who the opponent is. People please lay Trump to rest and let’s get our country back. We must have a candidate that will win.
Done by a master, emotions can be played like a fiddle. It’s weird to see people abandon rational thought and critical thinking, but the Covid response was a living example of emotion outweighing thought..
Aside, it’ll be interesting to see who steps up and delivers. I’d be happy with about all coming out the winner except Christie.