I expect we are about to see a surge in Trump polling even as Iowa polling has shown a shift to DeSantis by 16 points. That might come undone. The rally effect is real.
The question will be how candidates find a path around the matter. Christie and Pence, it seems, will try to go through Trump. The others will find a path around.
The big issue is going to be loyalty and betrayal. Trump voters have an emotional connection to him. It is something I think the media misses. They so hate Trump, they want Republican candidates to go guns blazing at Trump. It is why Christie has such a strong appeal to the press.
But a candidate who really wants to win is going to have to go around Trump. Trump’s voters are loyal to him because they believe Trump has been loyal to them. To make the case to replace Trump, a candidate must find a way to convince voters that it is for Trump’s good or that, in private, they have to realize he cannot win the general. To do that, the candidate must show some level of deference.
That’s why, over the past week, most of the candidates have focused on an aggressive prosecution and abuse of prosecution and double standard. But now, led by Haley and Scott, the candidates are pivoting to “if the allegations are true, they’re bad and highly reckless behavior.” Condemn the prosecution, but note the charges, standing on their own are bad.
That won’t be enough though.
What I’m told is that some of the candidates are actively in the field meeting with Trump voters trying to find a message that works. His voters understand the predicament. At this point, it actually helps make the case for Fulton County, Georgia to indict as well. Make Trump more of a victim, but also one who needs someone else to fight for him.
Navigating this is not easy. The press, when a candidate releases a soft statement, pounces on the candidate. That’s because the press hates Trump and does not understand the internal GOP dynamics.
The candidate who can come up with the best message soonest to both be supportive while messaging these things make Trump unable to beat Biden is going to be the candidate who comes out ahead.
Those message tests are happening. We should start seeing a rhetoric shift soon.
Agreed. But neither did Trump, or GW before him, come anywhere close to being Hitler. Actions never begin as absolutes, so there wouldn't be a comparison to threats of execution...yet. But on each side - notice I say each side - there is this emotional argument that bypasses logic or law suggesting that because a person or entity has different opinions, they deserve whatever consequences come their way. Rhetoric ratchets up emotions, and emotions eventually lead to violence, all in the name of something that feels right. I don't doubt for a minute that many pre-WWII Germans were just plain afraid to speak up when they saw their Jewish neighbors lose their businesses and property as they were rounded up and shipped off. But there were enough that believed Hitler and blamed the Jews for the plight Germany had suffered over the previous decade, and their emotional response helped fuel Hitler's propaganda machine. We're certainly not there, but the current trend isn't healthy.
"Condemn the prosecution, but note the charges, standing on their own are bad."
In other words, condemn the prosecution while acknowledging that Trump has engaged in conduct that warrants prosecution.
You people (Republicans) are either insane, incredibly dishonest or both.