Harris Could Win. So Could Trump.

My gut is that the election is tilting toward the Republicans, but I need to emphasize again to you that Harris could win. Already, many of the commenters here and on social media have drawn their line in the sand—she will only win if it is stolen.

This is dogma, not reality.

Harris can win every swing state if women outpace men by just a few percentage points. And right now, women are outpacing men in early voting. The Democrats’ ground game in Michigan and Wisconsin is superior to the Republican ground game. Pennsylvania remains a wild card.

We’re going to see a press obsessed with everything Trump said at Madison Square Garden because the conventional wisdom at this point is that Trump has peaked. He has no more votes to get. Gallup says 41% of voters are concerned about Trump’s ties to radicals. So the media will do its part to suppress potential Trump voters by playing up the most radical things Trump says. Trump, God bless him, can rarely help himself when it comes to being Supreme Edge Lord.

On that point, it was not wise to have Tony Hinchcliffe on stage last night with his jokes that drew swift condemnation even from Republicans. On the one hand, Trump is running and is liked by people because he and those around him say off-color stuff that gets laughs, and many people know it is just a joke. On the other hand, when the opposition is vehement that Trump and MAGA are racist, telling jokes about blacks and watermelons, never mind the Puerto Rico joke, just gives ammunition to the opposition.

In reality, that the Trump campaign directly, its surrogates, and a bunch of Republican politicians are all denouncing Tony Hinchcliffe’s jokes tells you everything you need to know about how the Trump team doesn’t want to spend the eight days of the campaign. It also tells you exactly what the media is going to be talking about as the press corps musters all its strength to help Harris.

The Trump team will be playing up Kamala as the status quo and too progressive to suppress potential Harris voters. If Trump loses, the odds will be because Harris’s female vote showed up, and the men did not do enough to offset it. But Trump and his supporters will say it was stolen, and the truth won’t stand up to the lie. The pre-gaming has begun. It’s actually the biggest reason I hope Trump wins. His supporters need a psychological break from their own self-doubts and internal monologues about being victims.

They perceive themselves as losers in a rigged game and are one more perceived rigging away from turning as violent as the left.

To the extent Democrats are losing, and there are signs to point to, I have one for you. This is an actual ad. It is running online in every swing state. The ad features a young man in bed watching pornography and masturbating. You read that right. But a Republican comes into the room and announces the GOP is banning online porn access. This is how the Democrats think they can get men to vote, which is another warning sign for Democrats that (1) they are apprehensive about the male vote in this country and (2) they have completely lost the plot on attracting those voters to their cause.

Take a look.

Couple that ad with Michelle Obama lecturing men about voting Democrat for the womyn-folk, and you have a political party on the verge of losing the male vote for a generation.

Future Forward, a major Democrat Super PAC is now publicly calling for Kamala Harris to stop attacking Trump as a fascist or for being old. They claim that isn’t closing the deal with voters. The voters want to know about Harris’s policies.

Add to that the current voter turnout, which shows Republican precincts in the country turning out for early voting, defying historical trends, and you can see the worry for the Democrats.

We are now in the last week of the race, and both parties will resort to the same strategy — voter suppression. Both will overplay anything they think can be used to get undecided voters and voters of the opposite party to stay home.

Democrats will have the press to help them, giving them an advantage. Republicans will have to be on the A game with extreme discipline. Trump should go into the witness protection program for the week and shut up.

Right now, Republicans are worried about the percentage of women in the early vote and wondering if their voters are just showing up early but not adding to the Election Day wave. Democrats are worried about the lack of black voters showing up, particularly black men, and they’re worried about the unusually high Republican early vote.

Over 42 million have already voted. In Georgia, 56% of the 2020 vote has already been cast. 50% of North Carolina has already been cast. In Virginia, Republican enthusiasm is higher, with Democrat areas seeing steeper daily fall off in early voting that Republican areas compared to 2020. In Florida, Republicans have outpaced Democrats by so much that if Florida were all in the Eastern time zone, the state would be called as soon as the polls close on Election Night. There’s just no way for Democrats to overcome what is happening to them there. In Nevada, the GOP early vote is so strong, some Democrats are worried they will lose that state and possibly even the Senate seat unless this coming week sees a dramatic shift in early voting. Right now, the GOP edge in early voting is six percent, which is a first for the history books.

There are eight days left. This race is really, really tied. Either side can win; they don’t need to steal it to win. They just need to get more voters to the polls than the other side and will work very hard to both do that and find ways to depress the other side’s turnout.

Making jokes about Puerto Rico and black people is a great way to stop demographic shifts to Trump. But, overnight, new polling showed Trump winning New Hampsire and the race narrowing in New Mexico so much so the GOP is moving resources to New Mexico.

Side Note

Democrats have had multiple conventions and events at Madison Square Garden. On MSNBC last night, the network’s chyron under the rally video directly compared Trump’s rally to a pro-Nazi rally in the 1930’s.

This comparison cheapens and downplays what Nazism actually was. Much as Democrats scream that everything from the right is racist, they degrade and distort both what racism is and what Nazism is.

But, perhaps, that is a strategy from a political party with a vocal core of supporters calling for a second Holocaust against Jews and openly suggesting Hitler got things right, but Hamas needs to finish the job.