If The Election Were Held Today, Trump Would Win

Yes, sure, Democrats can curl up in the fetal position and chant, “Polls today are meaningless.  The election is far away,” but actually people’s perceptions are locking in now.  John McCain, in 2008, pulled ahead of Barack Obama for a month or so around April of 2008, but the race mostly held for Obama.  In 2012, though Romney got a post convention bump, Obama held the lead.

This pattern plays out in 2020 in too.  Biden led Trump.  In fact, Trump has never led.  Now, it is hard to find good polling where Trump is not leading.  National polling gives us a sense that Trump is leading.  Where things get worse for the Democrats is in the swing states.

Right now, based on the current polling averages, if the election were held today, here is what the Electoral College would look like.