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Forget the Polls. Here Are the Signs of the Red Wave.
The evidence that a wave is growing transcends the polling. Take a moment and listen below. But let me explain it to you in writing as well.
Assume the polls are wrong. In fact, the polling bottom line numbers probably are. The trends are what matters. The trends have been shifting in the GOP’s direction for several weeks.
Forget all the polling. Assume there is no polling. How do you know the GOP is winning big?
Follow the money
Democrats are redirecting resources to areas that should be safe. In close races, they would not be moving money from Florida to Washington State. Florida should be a tight swing seat. Washington should be a locked-in Democrat seat. But Democrats are cutting Val Demming's money in Florida against Marco Rubio and redirecting it to incumbent Senator Patty Murray of Washington. That does not happen if there is no wave.
It is not just that one race. Democrats are pulling money out of Georgia for Stacey Abrams to send to Oregon — a state that has not had a GOP governor since the eighties. They must prop up Kathy Hochul in New York and Wisconsin Governor Tony Evers. On the Senate, Democrats and Republicans keep dumping money into Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona. But Democrats also have to send money to Colorado and Washington, which they should not have to do. They are pulling money from Wisconsin’s Mandela Barnes against Ron Johnson to keep other incumbent Democrats going.
On the House side, Democrats have started building a firewall in Biden +10 seats, i.e., seats Biden won by ten points or more. To do so, they are pulling money from seats Biden won by +5 to +7 points. The Democrats are sacrificing these seats to save other seats. They have given up trying to hold the GOP to fifteen seats. They’re now trying to stop the GOP from getting a thirty-seat majority in the House.
Follow the money and the Democrats are retreating from races and trying to save Democrat incumbents who should not be threatened.
Follow the President.
President Biden is campaigning in Philadelphia and New York to rally Democrats. But now he is scrambling to get to New Mexico for its governor, a seat that should not be in play. Vice President Harris, likewise, is going to bright blue areas of the country. Neither one is doing many events, and the events they are doing are in highly Democrat areas. That is a bad sign. They are trying to maximize Democrat turnout to save Democrat areas, not save swing districts.
Most notably, Biden and Harris have written off the House in their campaign swings, except places like New York. Instead, to the extent they are campaigning for anyone, they are campaigning for governors in Democrat states who should not be in trouble and senators who should not be in trouble. That helps turn out the Democratic base, but it also signals weakness for some candidates who should not be vulnerable.
Follow Chuck Schumer.
He’s feeling okay about Nevada, Arizona, and Pennsylvania, but he was caught on a hot mic telling President Biden in New York that Georgia is going for Herschel Walker. More notably though, Biden is not going to campaign with Kelly in Arizona or Cortez Masto in Nevada. Also, in Nevada, Democrats are moving money away from Steve Sisolak, the incumbent Governor, in recognition that Joe Lombardo is going to win. It is hard to imagine Lombardo winning and Laxalt losing as Hispanic voters appear to be moving right.
Follow the Early Voting.
In Florida, Republicans have already surged ahead of Democrats in early voting. In Georgia, the highest turnout counties by percentage of registered voters are all Republican and many of the lowest are Democrat strongholds. Republicans are also holding their own in Georgia, which was not expected while the black vote early voting turnout has been trending down. Those are all bad signs for Democrats.
Early voting is a terribly unreliable indicator because voter preferences change so much, but in states like Georgia, where Republicans really do show up on election day, to be at parity in early voting is extraordinary. The same holds turn in Louisiana where Republicans are always behind in early voting and time are still behind, but closer than normal.
In Texas, where Democrats should be well ahead in early voting because Republicans vote on Election Day, the early voting numbers suck. Sorry Beto.
Early voting trends will always show the Democrats doing better than they do. But when early voting looks close, like this time, that does suggest Republicans are highly engaged.
Follow the Press.
Recriminations are already starting to crop up in the media. Democrats are beginning to fret openly about John Fetterman. They are blaming the economy and blasing poor messaging from the White House. They are attacking voters for not caring about democracy. The back-biting and blame game have started more than a week out.
Follow the Message.
The GOP is running on the economy, crime, the border, and accountability for Biden. Democrats are running on Trump sucks and abortion. Democrats are not trying to sell themselves or their accomplishments. That’s not what winners do.
Follow the Fed.
Mortgage rates have just reached new highs. Interest rates are going up again the week before the election. Voters will hear about that and know their costs are going up. They will react to that. Markets will react too.
That One Thing That is Missing.
One does not need the polling to know a red wave is coming. But, from the polling data, we do not see something we saw in the last three weeks of the 2020 campaign. In 2020, we saw a blue wave in the polling, and in the last three weeks, we saw a reciprocal red wave that mostly neutralized the blue wave. In 2022, we see the red wave in the polling, but there is no reciprocal blue wave this time. If there was, Democrats would not be pouring resources into saving congresscritters like Katie Porter and senators like Patty Murray. Instead, we see the absolute panic among the Democrats, and they’ve now run out of money while the GOP still has a lot with a week left.
If the GOP were smart, they’d add to their closing message — the baby formula shortage.