It Is Donald Trump's Party

I really did think that, given the operation he had built in Iowa, Ron DeSantis could pull it off. The fact that he battled for second against Nikki Haley in a very close race strongly indicates that the path forward is off a cliff for DeSantis.

The Republican Party is Donald Trump’s party. I saw some Twitter account say Trump is taking on the establishment, but it is very clear that Trump is the establishment. He is the dominant force in the GOP. The party is his.

The Iowa blowout was extremely impressive and shows a strong desire by the party's base for a 2020 rematch, which they will undoubtedly get unless Biden steps aside.

For those of us who are not fans of Trump, we’ll all have to make a choice — sit on the sidelines, walk away from the GOP, or vote for Trump (or some might go with Biden). But, frankly, given the enthusiasm of the base in Iowa — a state that rejected him in 2016 — it probably does not matter.

Trump will be the GOP nominee. Many of those who insist they’ll never vote for him, when confronted by the woke left and Biden in the general, will change their minds.

Whether he can beat Biden is another issue. The reality is that Trump’s victory in November will be way more resource-intensive than a Haley or DeSantis victory. That will deprive House and Senate races of resources. Likewise, there is some evidence that many general election voters just haven’t wrapped their brains around the GOP rallying to Trump. That could benefit Biden.

When the polls shift, don’t blame the pollsters. For everyone saying the pollsters were wrong, they were right about Iowa. The Real Clear Politics polling average had Trump at 52% heading into last night. He’ll wind up close to that.

Right now, those same polls have Trump ahead of Biden by 1.1%, and Trump, historically, outperforms the polls. The polling will undoubtedly shift as Trump gets more national, regular media exposure and the general election public comes to terms with the GOP backing Trump.

The GOP should remember that among voters who voted in 2020, Biden wins against Trump in 2024. The Democrats should remember that if Trump can mobilize his voters in 2024, Trump wins.

The difference between the Republican Primary and the General Election is that the primary is a blowout. The general election will not be.

As for the DeSantis campaign, they won’t quit yet. But, as someone who has written favorably about their efforts and ground game, I do not see a viable path. If all that money, mobilization, and effort could not get close to Trump in Iowa, it won’t help nationally. Never Back Down got beat down in Iowa.

In the race between Trump-like and Trump, the base of the party wants Trump — warts and all. It is an open question if the general election voters will feel the same way.

As an aside, it was completely irresponsible of the American media to call the Caucuses before any votes started. At the same time, given the margin of victory, it is sour grapes and whining to presume doing so altered the inevitable outcome.

Lastly, thank God we’re almost to the end of Vivek’s campaign.