It was a bad night for the GOP. Trump voters vote for Trump. Democrats have become so radicalized against Trump that there is no local politics anymore. Everything is defined by the R or D next to one’s name, and in off year elections, etc., that is very bad for the incumbent party.
Republicans will be pressured today to cut a deal with Democrats over reopening the government. No deal is actually necessary because Democrats can legitimately gloat about their wins last night, say the nation is with them, and build momentum towards the midterms.
Donald Trump will start becoming a lame duck sooner than expected. He cannot turn out the vote unless he is on the ballot, and he will never be on the ballot again. So the jockeying will begin to replace him.
Democrats swept New Jersey and Virginia with even Jay Jones beating Jason Miyares, the Attorney General. Miyares was hurt by a spectacularly bad campaign from Winsome Sears, who failed to keep it close at all.
With Mamdani winning in New York and Democrats winning as they did, they are not going to learn a whole lot from last year’s loss and assume it was an anomaly. That will, at least, help the GOP a bit.
Don’t attack Curtis Sliwa for staying in the race. Mamdani beat Cuomo in the Democratic Primary. But Cuomo’s ego convinced him he needed to run as an independent. His unofficial motto was basically, “I may have killed your grandmother and sexually harassed your granddaughter, but I’m not Mamdani and Sliwa should get the f— out.” Cuomo could have made a case to Sliwa’s voters. Instead, as he always does, he tried to bully Sliwa out of the race. Mamdani beating the man who killed New York’s grandmothers was obvious.
But the headwinds the GOP now has should be just another data point for them on not killing the filibuster in the Senate.
It’s also worth pointing out that New York, New Jersey, and even Virginia are not exactly red states and, because of the government shutdown, federal workers in Virginia have had a lot of idle time to vote and they lean Democrat. So there’s only so much you can read into these results.
You won’t hear about Texas, where every Republican offered constitutional amendment passed, and even Austin’s progressive voter base rejected a tax hike. That suggests the “Blue Texas” fantasy of next year should be dead on arrival, but the press won’t be able to help it.
One result that was really consistent across states in exit polling, however, is that people are feeling the cost of living. Like it or not, inflation is growing faster than wages again. And yes, tariffs are playing a role, but not the only role. Republicans promised they’d lower grocery prices, and grocery prices are on the rise. It’s not a coincidence that coffee prices and banana prices are showing up repeatedly in stories about grocery prices going up. The President has placed a big tariff on the countries from which we get those things. Yes, Republicans, the economy still matters, and, contrary to the President, tariffs are hurting people.
Also, I need to add that some Republicans will say candidates no longer matter because if Jason Miyares can lose, because it is now just “D” v “R,” we ought to go for broke. But actually, Mamdani could have lost to a better candidate than Cuomo. Miyares could have won with a better candidate than Sears at the top of the ticket.
It is why, in a state like South Carolina, voters should commit Nancy Mace to a mental health facility instead of the party’s nomination for Governor next year, and GOP candidates across the country must be on their A game at all times.
Certainly, the press and Democrats will read far more into last night’s results than is there, but Republicans must read into the results their party’s inability to turn out votes on just brand awareness or supporting Trump. And, frankly, in some states, identifying with Trump instead of building one’s own name and brand is not a winning strategy.
On the upside, the Democrats can reopen the government now without depressing their turnout, and the Supreme Court can end the tariffs and spare a lame duck a bad policy he can’t otherwise be talked out of.
I would say it was a bad night for the country. The idea that the two sides have more in common than they have differences should now be dead. Democrats are fine with having people in office who would happily kill their political opponents and their children. Because after all, killing unborn children and mentally and surgically mutilating them is at the top of their list of acceptable behavior. Conservative voters are blissfully unaware of the seriousness of the situation in the country so don't bother to go vote. Democrats have zero motivation to come to the table at all, on anything for the rest of Trumps term because they can sit and either let the country collapse, or scare the republicans into blowing up the filibuster which they can then use to collapse the country when they get back in power. This is not "normal politics"
Blue is blue and red is red. Most people will vote party lines no matter what comes out of the mouths of their candidates. Just remember all you blue voters you get what you vote for. I don't want to hear any whining coming from NYC when crime rises and there aren't police, or your free stuff isn't really free and there is a mass exodus of people sick of the crime and the taxes. Can't wait to see next year's 9/11 ceremony.
One thing that the RNC doesn't seem to grasp is that you need good candidates that can run a good campaign.