Miscellaneous

I’m on the road today and off the radio. I have a series of meetings in Washington today and tomorrow. But I wanted to highlight a few stories that caught my eye so you can stay up on the news.

First, the GOP lead has continued to increase in the Real Clear Politics polling average. Two days ago, it was .7%. Yesterday, it was 1.8%. Today, it is 2.2%. The New York Times/Sienna College poll is brutal for the Democrats. 46% of Americans strongly disapprove of Biden, and 90% of them are voting Republican. Given the national amplification of Democrats in national polls, when you subtract them out to swing areas, that is brutal.

The recriminations have started.

Democrats are starting to lament they peaked too soon. Their political viagra that was the Dobbs decision has faded and voters remain fixated on economic news.

“Look, man, I’ve been at this for 30 years, and it is always the period in late September and early October when an election starts to tilt and move,” said Mark Longabaugh, a progressive ad maker who worked on Bernie Sanders’ 2016 campaign. “So, we’re at that moment, and I don’t think you can look at these numbers across the country and say anything but it looks like it’s moving in Republicans’ direction.”

He said, “I think it’s clear Republicans have seized the upper hand.”

It was just a few weeks ago that the landscape looked far better for Democrats. The party had over-performed in special congressional elections in Nebraska, Minnesota and New York. In heavily Republican Kansas, an anti-abortion rights ballot measure went down. Even President Joe Biden’s public approval ratings were ticking up, after a series of legislative victories.

But that was when Roe was in the headlines nearly every day, or the school shooting in Uvalde, Texas, which momentarily put Republicans on the defensive on guns.

Now, it’s no longer a mass shooting or a 10-year-old rape victim crossing state lines making news, but “Gas prices in Roanoke up 32.1 cents,” “High Inflation Darkens Global Economic Outlook,” or “Surging crime, fentanyl crisis at forefront of Michigan governor’s race.”

As I’ve been saying, it’s the economy, stupid.

The poll shows that 49 percent of likely voters said they planned to vote for a Republican to represent them in Congress on Nov. 8, compared with 45 percent who planned to vote for a Democrat. The result represents an improvement for Republicans since September, when Democrats held a one-point edge among likely voters in the last Times/Siena poll. (The October poll’s unrounded margin is closer to three points, not the four points that the rounded figures imply.)

With inflation unrelenting and the stock market steadily on the decline, the share of likely voters who said economic concerns were the most important issues facing America has leaped since July, to 44 percent from 36 percent — far higher than any other issue. And voters most concerned with the economy favored Republicans overwhelmingly, by more than a two-to-one margin.

Politico, which is more and more a reliable house organ for Democrats is lamenting some future Democrat stars area about to get wiped out.