Prepare Yourselves: Trump is Rebounding
You can tell it is true by the meltdown of blue checkmarks on Twitter.
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Here is the reality of 2020.
President Trump is on defense. He is behind in the polling that many of you think is wrong, but really isn’t that wrong. His polling is worse in 2020 than in 2016. In 2016, there were consistently some credible polls that had Trump a point or so ahead of Clinton. Now, his best national polling has Biden six points ahead. While you do not take it seriously, the Trump team does and we know they do by how they are allocating resources.
Here is also the reality in 2020.
Trump can win this thing and his convention is programmed in such a way to go on offense and change the polling. If you have not noticed, the polling is already changing. The swing states are amenable to Trump. The market is surging and 401(K)’s are rebounding. The media elite may be fine with their kids not in school, but working-class parents are not. Only one side is fighting for schools to reopen and the other is busy justifying businesses being burned down. This stuff really does matter.
In the last forty-eight hours, I’ve gotten disappointed notes from Democrat readers and listeners who hate that I’ve become “pro-Trump” and a “Trump apologist.” One wrote that he is disappointed I have decided to “collaborate” in the Trump narrative. Just a few weeks ago, it was Trump supporters mad at me. On any given day of the week, I get accused of being wishy-washy, indecisive, fickle, schizophrenic, etc.
I am a partisan, a conservative, a Christian, a former elected official, a former elections lawyer, and a former campaign manager and consultant. I just call this stuff like I see it. As the situation, data, and reality change, I write about the change. You can disagree. But please save me the hysteria, whining, and bellyaching that I’m telling you something that hurts your sensitive souls or I’ve somehow changed.
I don’t think opinion and analysis are the same thing and I think I have a responsibility to tell you first how I analyze a situation and then what I think of the situation. I frankly think a lot of people have gotten so tribal and partisan that too few people can handle the truth if it does not comport to their wants and too many people have descended into idolatry, worshipping political figures, the technical term for whom is sinner. Criticize their idol and they get bent out of shape. Suggest their idol is wrong or losing and woe unto the unsubscribe button.
By the way, you really should subscribe to get the good stuff. Because if you aren’t a subscriber you’re missing all sorts of interviews and other stuff. I’m already recording conversations with future conservative leaders and others to start rolling out soon to subscribers only.
It is important that I write all of that to spare myself, the comments section, and your sanity for what I must now say.
The GOP convention is working and Chuck Todd’s analysis of Biden’s concerns are right. If you have not heard, Chuck Todd is reporting the Biden Team is concerned President Trump could overperform with black men. Yes, he probably is going to. Just like with Rick Scott and Ron DeSantis in Florida, the GOP has a real shot at outperforming with black men. I would add in Hispanic voters too.
The second night of the Republican Convention was not nearly as well programmed as the first night. The first night really hit persuadable voters and the second night was culture war night against the left and press. But there were still moments that resonated. The formatting of this convention works.
If you hate Donald Trump, the convention is not for you. The blue checkmark brigade on Twitter despises the man and interpreted the night through the worse possible lens of white supremacy, propaganda, etc. They bellyached about events from the White House, while anyone with half a brain would recognize that if the Democrats did the same these people would be okay with it.
Trump leveraged the power of the presidency last night, pardoning a former bank robber and welcoming in new citizens. He should have done the pardon in the ten o’clock hour. Democrats can whine about the Hatch Act, but the only Americans who care are the ones who hate the President and worship at the altar of politics. Everyone else suspects the Hatch Act has to do with New Mexican chili peppers.
Yes, yes, yes, (opinion time in this paragraph) my old fuddy-duddy self finds it unseemly for the Secretary of State and Secretary of Homeland Security to participate as they did. I do not think the Cabinet officers should descend into partisanship. But I thought the same thing in the Obama era and all the people complaining now were perfectly and completely fine with Kathleen Sebelius, Eric Holder, Loretta Lynch, etc. engaging in partisan moments. All Donald Trump has done is take their behaviors to the next step with his Cabinet. You may not like it, but it was foreseeable. You said nothing then so you forfeit your right to complain now. You did not see their behaviors as partisan then. Who cares what you think now.
The convention is stagecraft that is working. Ironically, the GOP has less Hollywood star talent, which has forced them to work harder on their stagecraft and rely less on actors and more on real people with stories to tell. It has worked. The President in the White House with people is better than Biden on a Zoom call. The First Lady in the Rose Garden is better than a pre-taped sterile speech. The people coming on stage to speak is better than the Zoom call.
These things are objectively true and part of why the blue checkmarks are so livid. The Republicans, without the glitzy access of Hollywood, actually have a good and thoughtful convention with real people who have benefited from Trump’s administration.
Last week, we learned Joe Biden has everyone’s cell phone and calls to check in on them because he is a nice guy. This week, we learned you don’t have to like Donald Trump to see the benefit of his policies. While Joe Biden was passing laws to throw black men in jail, Trump was passing laws to get them out of jail.
Folks, that is the reality. Democrats have a lot of advantages and if the election were held today, Joe Biden would win and Democrats would probably take the Senate. But the election is not today, the GOP is having a good week, and it turns out the President really was serious about making a play for black voters, particularly black men.
You don’t have to take my word for it. Go on Twitter, find someone with a blue checkmark and a media background, and you’ll see their meltdown over the last two days. They know Team Biden has problems.
The Democrats Have An Achilles Heel
Last point — you know the biggest weakness the Democrats have right now? Their bubble. The most prominent black voices that the Democrats listen to have more in common with the secular, white atheists at the top of the Democratic Party than with the black family in Middle Tennessee. The woke white activists of the Democratic Party have more in common with the rich elite than the Hispanic worker just trying to make a living. Democrats embraced identity politics so much that they wanted a whole lot of people who look completely different from one another, but who all think the same. That thinking is the thinking of people within twenty-five miles of a coast, but there are way more people within 100 miles of American river valleys who’d really like to go to work today without BLM activists harassing them and burning down their businesses.
Just look at the reaction to Nikki Haley claiming America is not a racist country. The woke pundits and Democrats are furious and cannot distinguish racists from the country. The white woke people want to lecture us that we cannot deny the country is racist without considering what it is like to be black in America experiencing racism. Actually, it is quite possible to recognize there are racists and racism in America without thinking the whole country is racist. That Democrats want to fight on this ground is actually ground on which Trump will win.
That Democrats don’t seem to get that and Republicans do get it is exactly why Donald Trump could win this thing.
Erick, your opinions may not be always right (are anybody’s ?), but you have the courage to honestly state them and you are willing to allow your subscribers (like me) to post comments regardless of whether they agree or disagree with you. The world would be a better place if more people adopted that philosophy instead of artificially placing themselves in a bubble of people who only agree with them.
Once again, I am compelled to respectfully disagree with your assessment about the reliability of the polls. In October 2016 ( https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html ), there were 11 different national polls giving Clinton a double-digit lead, with the largest 2 polls giving her a 13 and 14 point lead. It wasn’t until the week of the election that the polls started to show more accurate results, but even then they were tilted against Trump. In concept, this year may not be any different than 2016, with Hillary’s huge poll lead suddenly vanishing in the week of the election. Perhaps one can argue that people change their mind at the last minute, and it is only a coincidence that the Democrats huge leads mysteriously vanish in late polls. But one can also argue that the early polls produce phantom leads for the Democratic candidates that vanish when the reputation of the polls are on the line and they need to produce more accurate results to maintain their credibility (a theory Rush has been arguing for years).
Another thing is that the national polls are entirely irrelevant to who will be President. In terms of the state polls for WI, MI, PA the only polls that came close to getting Trump’s victory correct were the Republican polls. Here are RCP average results from 2016 for the week before the election:
WI: Clinton +6.5 (10/26-11/2)
PA Clinton 2.1 (10/29-11/5) - would be Clinton 3.5 if not for two R-polls that were accurate (tie, Trump+1)
MI Clinton +3.6 (11/1-11/16) - would be Clinton +5 if not for the R poll that had Trump+2
It is worth noting that Trafalgar polls in 2016 was the only one that got Trump’s victory in PA and MI correct (it did not do a WI poll). Today’s Trafalgar polls has Trump winning in WI 46-45 over Biden and last Thursday’s Trafalgar poll had Trump tied in MN at 47 . So you can believe what you want about the polls reliability. But if you want to maintain an honest analysis of the polls (and you typically seek honestly), I believe you need to acknowledge the media polls are not as accurate as you make them out to be.
Re:Stagecraft. I want to know what sort of forced perspective and camera tricks they are using to pull off that one shot in Mellon Auditorium where it looks like the American Flag is being gracefully lowered from stage right?