Recessionary Propagandists

We are in a recession by the traditional definition, which is also the official definition in a number of countries — two quarters of negative growth.

Brian Deese, the White House economics advisor, in 2008, used that definition to proclaim a Bush recession. Now he says that definition does not apply.

RNC Research @RNCResearch

Brian Deese, yesterday: "Two negative quarters of GDP growth is not the technical definition of recession.” Deese, 2008: “Economists have a technical definition of recession, which is two consecutive quarters of negative growth.”

Ben White, who writes for Politico, used the same definition two years ago.

Ben White @morningmoneyben

IHS just downgraded first quarter growth to -2.1% others are also going negative. The second quarter will be down by double digits. All of this just means we are in a recession right now.

Now, he’s fallen in line with the White House.

Ben White @morningmoneyben

The White House is pretty obviously right that even two quarters of shrinking GDP would not show the economy is currently in recession. Getting people to understand that and the nuances of our strange, vexing, economic moment is just really hard. By me.

politico.comWhite House braces for grim news on economySenior administration officials are hitting the airwaves and arm-twisting reporters in private, imploring anyone who will listen that the economy is still healthy.

The original definition used to also be good for John Harwood of CNN.

John Harwood @JohnJHarwood

btw it’s not possible for a recession to last only two months recession = economy shrinks for two quarters

Now, the press claims we are not in a recession.

To be fair to the White House, many economic factors have suggested we are not really in a recession. Additionally, economic growth data is often revised — sometimes upward and sometimes downward.

But there are three things we cannot avoid here.

First, all the talking heads long used “two-quarters of negative growth” to define a recession until just this week the Biden Administration began pushing them hard to change it. They were all compliant.

Second, the public certainly feels a recession, even if there is not technically a recession. Car repossessions are skyrocketing. Mortgage demand is plummeting. Hiring is slowing as businesses still struggle. People are cutting back on spending. Even upper income Americans are slowing their spending. It feels like a recession. If it is not really a recession now, it is going to be one and it will hit as Biden is running for re-election.

Third, you know damn well if a Republican were President, the entirety of the press corps would be proclaiming that we are in a recession and would ignore the goal post shifting of the White House.

But for Joe Biden, they’ll do what he wants. It is intellectually dishonest and further erodes the credibility of the press. If they want to go with the revised definition, that’s fine. But to do it the week the White House begs them just separates the press from the propagandists, and we’re seeing more propagandists than reporters.