Same Vibe. Same Result.

Erick Erickson @EWErickson

Same vibe. Same result.

Just as progressives tried to make Hillary Clinton happen, they are trying to make Stacey Abrams happen in Georgia. I’ll actually be on Fox & Friends shortly after 6:30am ET this morning to talk about the races in Georgia with Brian Kilmeade.

Here’s what you need to know.

Less than 15% of Abrams’ money has come from Georgia and more than 85% of Brian Kemp’s money has come from Georgia. California and New York outpace Georgia for Abrams. In other words, Kemp’s money is tied to voters and Abrams’ money is tied to coastal elites.

Additionally, both candidates have about 100% name identification, so Abrams’ money advantage to Kemp (she has out raised him) will not improve her standing and her negatives are worse than Kemp’s. Kemp has improved his standing with every voter group in the state from 2018.

Brian Kemp does not leak his internal polling. He did last week for the first time. Internal polling that is leaked is designed to show the campaign in the best possible light. But there is a catch with Kemp’s polling.

He has himself beating Abrams by 5 percent.

He is winning 25% of black men under 35. He is winning Hispanic voters with 60%. He is winning Asian-American voters with over 50%. These three groups were the ones most hurt by Major League Baseball moving the All Star game out of Georgia at Abrams’ urging.

Kemp is winning white women and white men. He is winning both college educated and non-college educated voters.

Here’s the catch — Kemp’s internal polling, as good as it is, is worse than all the public polls, which have him beating Abrams by an even wider margin.

Here’s the second catch — in 2018, at this time, Kemp was tied or losing to Abrams in most public polling. In fact, going back to gubernatorial races a decade ago, this is the first time a Republican in Georgia has outperformed a Democrat in late summer polling consistently across polls.

For a lot of reasons in Georgia, Democrats tend to do better this time of year in polling. Not this time.

Lastly, on Herschel Walker, yes it is true there is a large independent group of voters who are thus far showing they will vote for Raphael Warnock and Brian Kemp. But Walker has kept the race close. Again, Democrats tend to outperform Republicans in Georgia at this time of year.

Walker has retooled his campaign, is hitting the trail, and will be competitive in the fall. He can and just might win this race. He’s not a fantastic candidate, for sure. But just keep in mind that in 1980, six Republicans became “accidental senators” because the economic climate under Jimmy Carter was so bad. Carter, Georgia’s former governor, got trounced by Ronald Reagan. But in Georgia, Republican Mack Mattingly beat incumbent Democrat Herman Talmadge for the Senate. He was one of six of those accidents who served just one term because suburban Georgia voters had had enough of Carter.

Now Biden is polling worse in Georgia than Carter was in 1980. Walker can win.