The Data, Doubt, and Decision

Rt does not get talked about a lot. It is the measure of a virus’s ability to reproduce. If Rt is above 1, the virus will spread. If it is below 1, the virus will stop spreading. Healthcare experts have been telling us since March that people needed to shelter-in-place to get Rt below 1. Once it was below one, we could start slowly reopening.

In Georgia, the state is below one. Not only that, but daily new cases continue to fall. Here are the present numbers in Georgia based on daily new cases:

• April 14: 830

• April 15: 634

• April 16: 661

• April 17: 537

• April 18: 256

• April 19: 157

• April 20: 96

• April 21: 23

The trend is remarkably good. The virus is definitely declining. But highlighting that data requires me to highlight something else. I sent out the numbers on Monday and they were different.

The reason for the difference is simple — as test results come in, they are added into the numbers based on the day the test was administered, not the day the test was received. When I sent out the data on Monday, the data for April 14 had 779 cases and April 15 had 590 cases.

Adding in the tests as they come in has led to a problem. The media reports show a spike in Georgia of about 2000 cases over the weekend. It became a pretty big story and it helped drive outrage over Governor Kemp’s decision to open the state on Monday.

The spike came because test results continue to flow in from weeks ago. A test given on April 1st was backlogged and a test given on April 19th was not. They both came in on April 20th, which drove the daily total count up. The media did not note that part of the data driving that 2000 case increase was old data finally coming in. Most likely, the patient with the positive test on April 1st is already recovered, but only now is being listed as a positive test.

Do not misunderstand me. I am not blaming the media. The media is only reporting the data it is given and the State of Georgia has not been great at reporting or clarifying data.

An inability to clarify all this has raised more doubts. Georgia looks like it is surging with new cases and actually the daily rate has been falling dramatically. Even consider the changes. As the April 14 data got completed, new cases only went up from 779 to 830. Just 51 additional cases came in. On April 15th, the data jumped just 44 cases. Again, the trends are good. The release of information and the ability of people to understand what it all means is terrible.

That’s why if I were Governor, I would not have opened the state yet. Part of being a leader is leading. The other part is having people follow your lead. The Governor was worried about imposing a harsh shelter-in-place order and having everyone disrespect the law. It woud undermine the credibility of the rule of law.

When the Governor says it is safe to go back out there and no one agrees, that undermines his own leadership. Instead of it looking like the Governor is marching forward, it looks like he is marching off a cliff and no one else is going along with him. Local businesses, barbershops, restaurants, etc are mostly staying closed or keeping carry out options only. The media has yet another opportunity to cast Stacey Abrams as the leader and a lot of mayors in the state look like they are following her lead while getting television exposure to denounce the Governor.

If a Governor says it is safe to go out and nobody does, that suggests people do not believe the Governor. That suggests the Governor has not done a good job educating people on his reasons and thinking. That suggests he should have waited a week or two to make people comfortable with the trends and data. Instead, a governor who people think never really wanted to shelter-in-place looks like a governor who is rushing it.

Now, let me be clear — that is the impression people have. It is not reality. Governor Kemp did, in fact, listen to Dr. Kathleen Toomey. He shut down the state when she told him, but not a moment before. He did not reopen until she told him it was possible, but not a moment later. He is reopening in a way she advised. It is not a free for all. It is not going back to normal. It is based on data and the Governor has the data on his side. Rt is below 1. That is when the experts said we could reopen.

Reopening for barbershops and bowling alleys will not actually mean opening to the public most likely. It will mean opening to get employees in and ready for business. It will mean making sure the open sign is ready to be plugged in, but probably not yet turned on for most. At the same time, it will allow a lifeline for sole proprietors who can better regulate access to their businesses and take responsibility for sanitation directly.

Part of the problem here, if we are honest, is that there is a real bias in the national press against Governor Kemp. White liberals in the national press resent him for beating Stacey Abrams. White moderates in Atlanta who did not vote for Obama finally had the black candidate they could vote for to show everyone they were not racist and Kemp beat her. There is still a lot of resentment that Kemp denied a bunch of Atlanta United fans their moment of virtue signaling. They do not like the guy, they do not respect the guy, and they drip with disdain over his perceived intelligence or lack thereof.

Combine that pre-existing bias against the Governor with the Governor’s failure to spend time getting buy in from local officials and the public through education on the data trends and it is recipe designed for mixed messages and a lack of trust.

Ultimately, however, the data is with the Governor. The very same experts people demanded he listen to are now saying it is safe to go outside with certain precautions. His approach will require people take those precautions and, sadly, people are stupid and stupid people will not take those precautions and could risk the virus spreading again.

The scenario now going into effect in Georgia is very high risk. If it pays off, Governor Kemp puts Georgia ahead of the pack. If it fails, he loses and might take the state’s Republican majority down too. The 2022 anti-Kemp ads are going to write themselves if he is wrong. If he is right, the critics will never admit it.

Fundamentally, Governor Kemp has the data on his side. Now he is going to need to get the people on his side and a majority of them, so far, will not be venturing outside. Thanks to Governor Kemp, however, the odds are their favorite businesses will still be there and will be ready for their business when they do get ready to go outside. Now, it will be up to businesses and the public to be responsible enough to keep the virus at bay.

Nationally, with a potential rebound in the virus, states need paths forward to accommodate people in society cohabitating with a virus. Perhaps Georgia can chart that path. We should wish the state well. As for me and my family, we will be staying home a bit longer. As the media failed to note, Georgia will be letting businesses start a slow roll towards reopening while its citizens will still be under a shelter-in-place order till the end of the month.