The Flung Poo Found Its Target. America Splattered in Crossfire.

The Monkeys Flinging Poo Caucus hit their target last night, taking out Kevin McCarthy, who declared he will not run again for Speaker of the House. America got splattered in the crossfire of monkeys flinging poo and dogs catching cars.

Now what?

There is no real plan to move forward at this time while the clock ticks on the continuing resolution. House Republicans, who oppose Ukraine funding, are about to choke on it. Why? The moderate Republicans sucked it up and put up with a deal that put House Freedom Caucus conservatives on the Rules Committee and Appropriations Committee. They went along with a House Freedom Caucus measure to cut the government by eight percent.

The House moderate Republicans have zero incentive to stick with the Freedom Caucus now on anything, the latter of which is divided anyway — in fact more divided that the moderates are on some big issues right now. The moderates want to fund Ukraine and have way more than 218 votes. Meanwhile, there is no Speaker to negotiate a spending package with the Senate, so the Senate hawks are in control of the process. McCarthy stripped Ukraine funding to satisfy Gaetz. Gaetz stripped McCarthy of power in return. Payback is going to be hell. But at least the House GOP could get border funding with it.

So, I expect to be very happy when it comes to funding Ukraine and the border. You guys who oppose the Ukraine funding are about to have it jammed down your throat thanks to Gaetz ousting McCarthy without a backup Speaker in the wings to challenge a pro-Ukraine Senate and House majority.

The House GOP moderates, who outnumber the eight who ended McCarthy, can, among other options, do a discharge petition with the Democrats to force through any funding on Ukraine they want now. They are off the chains.

They can also force the House GOP Conference to change the rules package McCarthy agreed to to get conservative votes. It was that package of rules that put House Freedom Caucus members on the Rules and Appropriations Committees.

Just think about this for one minute. Had Gaetz waited till the final continuing resolution to take shape in about thirty five days, he could have used the leverage to push for more. He could have been joined in a larger revolt of House conservatives with him. But now? At this time? He all but ensures the chaos plays against the conservative hand. McCarthy was always going to get the boot. But booting him now only helps the big spenders.

You guys who wanted to oust McCarthy because you felt he wasn’t keeping his end of the deal, will now watch a new deal be constructed and new deals grow government. That’s exactly what Gaetz has ensured. The moderate Republicans were willing to work with the conservatives in exchange for McCarthy as Speaker and reasonable concessions. The poo flingers just covered the Conference in feces, so it is game on for everyone else.

To put this more bluntly conservatives: bend over and get ready. Matt Gaetz just ensured a miserable next year for conservatives in the House. And yes, he, not McCarthy, did that.

As for McCarthy, his was also a retelling of the Damnation of Faust. He cut every deal, made every bargain, and sold his soul to get his power. He was always destined to end up tossed out. The timing, right now, is what sets back conservatives the hardest. It is tough to do anything but root for injuries in a fight between McCarthy and Gaetz. But I’m enough of a realist to know what it means to toss McCarthy with forty-two days to go before a government shutdown and no ready plan to replace him.

Yet again, a small band of Republicans decided to fire before aiming, sacrificing leverage for the big continuing resolution fight.

Meanwhile, in America, the cost of living is still up. Interest rates are through the roof. The 10 year bond yield is approaching five percent. The markets are starting to worry about the debt and government instability. Gas prices are soaring. Crime is destabilizing communities. House Republicans have gone home till next week. And the Speaker’s Chair is vacant.

Chaos is not leadership. It is also not a strategy.

The reality is the Speaker’s ouster matters little today to most Americans and affects them even less. But it will matter tremendously in just over thirty days when the nation’s bills come due, and funding must be approved to keep the lights on. And, truth be told, conservatives will most likely not get a better deal than they had already because they are outnumbered and, with the clock ticking on a shutdown, deals will be made to avoid a crisis most likely without a rule to vacate the chair that could be deployed in that fight. Those deals will make Matt Gaetz’s grievances look even more petty. As I was saying, bend over conservatives, and prepare for the worst. Matt Gaetz squandered conservatives’ leverage now, when a larger rebellion of more serious conservatives could have shaped the final spending package over the next month.

Hopefully, at least, we can get some border security in the fall out.