The Midterms

I am not as doom and gloom on the midterms as I once was. I don’t think it will be good. I, in fact, think the GOP probably does lose the House and loses some swing seats that are defensible. I am concerned about the Senate, but not panicked.

Ultimately, Democrats are hated by the voters more than the voters hate Trump even as Democrats are way more fired up to go vote than Republicans are. The intensity matters. It is a problem for the GOP. But people’s disdain for Democrats matters too.

The problem for the GOP is they are led by a man who won’t shut up on social media and constantly puts the GOP on defense. A single social media post from Trump can set the GOP back a week in messaging.

And now the GOP must be on its A-game.

Alito and Thomas are not expected to retire this summer. If the GOP does lose the Senate, those seats will sit empty for two years, you can be sure of that.

Democrats are, additionally, elevating more and more real antisemites into nominations for the party. If they win, it will not be Israel that has to worry. It will be American Jews who have to worry. Those same antisemites are also passionate haters of orthodox Christianity, as antisemites tend to also hate the authentic church. The things of the world hate the things of God. Hating the Jews is always a precursor to hating the Christian.

The cultural rot will spread.

If enough people around the President would chastise him more often, he would get a clue. It is not that he cannot be dissuaded. It is that those around him refuse to try lest he get mad at them.

But the GOP needs him to shut up and they need to deal with the crazy in their midst. Trump going after Tucker Carlson et al is actually very helpful. Highlighting the nutjobs on the Left is also very helpful. But, it’d also really help to have a unified argument against Iran (they cannot get nukes) and a unified message on the economy (it is getting better, but there are still problems but have you seen your tax refunds).