THE SHOW NOTES: Election Eve
Welcome! The Washington Post awarded Joe Biden a “bottomless Pinocchio” for a recent gaffe. - Fox News
EARLY VOTE COUNT: 40,114,753
Politico: Senate leans Republican. Republicans gain 15 seats in the House.
FiveThirtyEight: Republicans gain 5 in the Senate. Republicans have an 80% chance of holding between 214 and 246 House seats.
Cooke Political Report: Republicans gain 0 to 3 Senate seats.
Clip of the day: Oil Or Not?
Joe Biden flatly told a protestor “no more drilling” at a campaign event on Sunday. Less than 24 hours earlier, White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre proudly tweeted that oil and natural gas production would hit a new historic high next year under President Biden. Which one is it?
Bad News - Worse Timing
A center-left think tank has devastating news for Democrats on the eve of election day: their brand is toxic. Third Way claims that Democrats’ priorities, values, and philosophy is out-of-touch with the base of their party based on new polling released the day before election day.
Bad news: "If Democrats manage to hold on to the House and Senate, it will be in spite of the party brand, not because of it." Third Way claimed Democrats lead on issues that matter the least to voters like abortion and climate change. At the same time, Democrats perform worse among voters’ top issues like crime, immigration, and the economy.
Worse news: The Democrats’ toxic brand may be keeping young voters from showing up to the polls according to Bloomberg. The previous two election cycles saw booming turnout among 18-29-year-olds - a demographic that heavily favors Democrats. Despite record-setting early voting this cycle, young Democrats are nowhere to be seen.
Black And Hispanic Voters Turn Red
A record number of Black and Hispanic voters are voting Republican in a brand new poll from The Wall Street Journal:
“About 17% of Black voters said they would pick a Republican candidate for Congress over a Democrat in Journal polls both in late October and in August. That is a substantially larger share than the 8% of Black voters who voted for former President Donald Trump in 2020 and the 8% who backed GOP candidates in 2018 House races, as recorded by AP VoteCast, a large survey of voters who participated in those elections.
Among Latino voters, Democrats held a lead of 5 percentage points over Republicans in the choice of a congressional candidate in the Journal’s October survey, a narrower advantage than the Democrats’ 11-point lead in August.”
Final Senate Map
Final House Map
Doom Is Coming
A telling piece at The Daily Beast confirms what we all suspect: Republicans are will have a great election night.
Roger Sollenberger - the author - is a progressive partisan. He hounded the women in the story of Herschel Walker to break that news and then vented that it didn’t even come up in the Walker v Warnock debate. Progressive partisans do not write these sorts of stories when Democrats win. They write about how the polls are right and Republicans are denying the inevitable. To see a story like this - to claim no one knows - is an admission against interest that doom is coming for the Democrats and he doesn’t want to admit it for fear of cancellation, but he wants progressives prepared for it.
Election Eve
Georgia: The AJC announced state revenue was up 9.3% in a devastating last-minute blow to Stacey Abrams. To make matters worse, Abrams wore Tennessee colors on MSNBC the day Georgia played Tennessee in college football.
Florida: Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump held dueling campaign rallies in Florida where Trump called DeSantis, Ron DeSanctimonious. DeSantis and Rubio are both well ahead in the polls.
New York: President Biden spent valuable time campaigning for New York Governor Kathy Hochul over the weekend.
The rest of the news:
EU says it has serious concerns about Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act - CNBC
Cotton passes on 2024 presidential run after considering campaign - Politico
California’s non-Election Day - Washington Examiner
Why Democrats Shouldn’t Take The Asian American Vote For Granted - FiveThirtyEight
Hurricane watch: Subtropical storm eyes Florida, Bahamas - AP
Planet Earth: 8 billion humans and dwindling resources - MSN
The Parents’ Revolt - City Journal
The US Northeast Is Hurtling Toward a Winter Heating Crisis - Yahoo
Will this election finally be the end of Betoism? - Spectator World
More Workers Get Side Hustles to Keep Up With Rising Costs - WSJ (paywall)
Moving in Together Doesn’t Match the Financial Benefits of Marriage, but Why? - WSJ (paywall)
Democrats’ Long Goodbye to the Working Class - The Atlantic (paywall)
Three tweets that caught my eye:
Market snapshot:
To be fair, I am sure Biden doesn't remember what he said last week.
I wonder if the red moon in the morning hours is an indication of the election outcome.
Also, I am curious as to how many democrats really do not like or agree with the direction Biden policies are taking the country and are hoping for republican victories.