THE SHOW NOTES: Major College Sports Shake-Up, Biden's Invisible Red Line, & Trump in New York

Welcome! A new survey confirms that NBC’s Lester Holt is the most trusted news anchor in America.

NEW: Is Tom Cotton the leading VP candidate?

DATA: Americans keep vehicles for a record 12.6 years on average.

OUTRAGE: Anti-Israel activists mocked Rep. Brian Mast for losing his legs in Afghanistan.

YIKES: Is this the worst Wheel of Fortune answer ever?

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Major College Sports Shake-Up

The NCAA reached a landmark $2.77 billion settlement with the five major athletic conferences allowing schools to directly pay student-athletes for the first time ever.

Why this matters: The news marks an abrupt change to more than 100 years of NCAA policy where the association repeatedly claimed that paying student-athletes directly was an existential threat to the integrity of college sports.

Details: While specifics are still being worked out, the working assumption is the D1 universities will have a $20 million budget to pay student-athletes which remains in addition to the NIL deal that was struck two years ago.

How this happened: Student-athletes in the five major athletic conferences have former Arizona State University swimmer Grant House and others to thank for challenging the NCAA in court and naming the five largest athletic conferences as co-defendants.

Biden’s Invisible Red Line

On CNN earlier this month, Biden said, “If they (Israel) go into Rafah, I’m not supplying the weapons ... to deal with that problem.” Now that Israel has formally entered Rafah, the Biden administration claims the IDF has not crossed its red line leaving Jake Sullivan to handle clean up.

“What we have seen so far in terms of Israel’s military operations in that area has been more targeted and limited, has not involved major military operations into the heart of dense urban areas.”

Context: Regardless, the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu last week and today a UN court is demanding that Israel stop its assault on Gaza. It is highly unlikely that either of these actions would have been taken if the United States had not sent mixed signals on the Israeli response.

The Shaky Foundation of Trump’s Lead: Disengaged Voters

The polls have shown Donald J. Trump with an edge for eight straight months, but there’s one big flashing warning sign suggesting that his advantage might not be quite as stable as it looks.

That warning sign: His narrow lead is built on gains among voters who aren’t paying close attention to politics, who don’t follow traditional news and who don’t regularly vote.

To an extent that hasn’t been true in New York Times/Siena College polling in the last eight years, disengaged voters are driving the overall polling results and the story line about the election.

Full story at The New York Times (free).

No One Likes Gavin Newsom

New Hampshire Gov Chris Sununu said the quiet part out loud: no one likes Gavin Newsom.

Trending news:

• Biden campaign plans to get more aggressive once Trump trial ends - NBC

• CNN reporter struck by size of pro-Trump rally in 'one of the bluest counties in the entire country' - Fox News

• DOJ sues Live Nation to break up the entertainment behemoth - Morning Brew

• US service member critically injured, airlifted to Israel while working on Gaza aid pier - NY Post

• New preseason hurricane forecast is highest ever issued. Brace yourself, Florida - Miami Herald

• IDF recovers bodies of three hostages from north Gaza, who were killed on October 7 - Times of Israel

• Are Russia and North Korea planning an ‘October surprise’ that aids Trump? - NBC

• Only 1 in 4 say college is worth it. - Pew

• Why have rates of ADHD in kids gotten so high? - NBC4

• America’s $38 Trillion Retirement Pool Is Nowhere Near Enough - Bloomberg (free)

• The Radicals Getting Your Tax Money - WSJ (paywall)

Market snapshot: