THE SHOW NOTES: New Polling, Kamalanomics, & Gamblers Ditch Stocks For Bets

Welcome! The presidential election is just 82 days away.

NEW: Tim Walz and JD Vance will face off in an October 1st debate on CBS.

HEADLINE: Google says Iranian efforts to hack US presidential campaigns are ongoing and wide-ranging - CNN

RFK: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. tried to meet with Kamala Harris about a cabinet position.

BREAKING: At least 1 arrest made in connection to Matthew Perry’s death, law enforcement source says - AP

OUCH: Hidden-camera video shows Project 2025 co-author discussing his secret work preparing for a second Trump term - CNN

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Kamalanomics

Kamala Harris will unveil a plan calling for Congress to implement price controls on food and grocery stores in an initiative she aims to pass in her first 100 days if elected.

While the Harris campaign has surged in the polls, voters continue to prefer Trump to Harris when it comes to the economy and managing inflation. Despite overall inflation trending downward, the recent CPI report continues to show various food prices higher than average.

The plan will be unveiled at a rally in North Carolina tomorrow and is the first substantive policy proposal that has been put forth by the current Vice President. Harris continues to avoid interactions with the press which led to this scathing review from The New York Times:

The press has questions for Vice President Kamala Harris. She isn’t giving a whole lot of answers.

In the nearly three weeks since President Biden withdrew his candidacy, catapulting Ms. Harris to the top of the Democratic ticket, the vice president has shown little eagerness to meet journalists in unscripted settings. She has not granted an interview or held a news conference. On Thursday, after a rally in Michigan, she held her first “gaggle” — an impromptu Q.-and-A. session — with reporters covering her campaign. It lasted 70 seconds.

The Ad Boom

Kamala Harris has spent 10 times as much as Donald Trump on digital advertising since becoming the Democrats’ presidential candidate, a sign the campaigns are diverging in their tactics to reach voters and small-dollar donors.

Harris has spent $57mn on Google and Meta ads since President Joe Biden dropped out of the race on July 21, compared with just $5.6mn by Trump, according to a Financial Times analysis, as the Republican conserves cash and relies on traditional media to carry his message.

Full story at The Financial Times.

New Polling

Some fresh polling has emerged showing a general trend favoring Kamala Harris over Donald Trump in national polling. Here’s the data:

• Quinnipiac: Harris 48% - Trump 45%

• Emerson College: Harris 50% - Trump 46%

• Fox News: Trump 50% - Harris 49%

• Morning Consult: Harris 47% - Trump 44%

A noteworthy quote from Morning Consult:

Harris’ media honeymoon rolls on: For the third week running since launching her presidential campaign, voters remained more likely to say they heard something positive (47%) than negative (33%) about Harris by a double-digit margin. Her net buzz rating (the share of voters who heard something positive minus the share who heard something negative) bests Trump’s rating from last week by a whopping 33 points. 

Republicans are panicked over fresh Senate polling from Cook Political Report which suggests that a wave of new GOP senators is far from a sure bet. Notably, Montana and Ohio were left out of the list below.

Mitch McConnell told me at The Gathering that he’s never seen a Senate map this favorable. Currently, Republicans are not defending a single Senate seat that is deemed a toss-up by RCP while Democrats are defending seven.

If you want a better understanding of the GOP efforts to take back the Senate, listen to my conversation with Senator McConnell:

Israel

Israel continues to brace for an imminent attack from Iran or a sympathetic proxy in the immediate future. This is from an unnamed Israeli official in Politico.

“We truly don’t know if they will do it, when they will do it, and with what force they will do it. We don’t have firm answers for all of that right now. But we believe an attack of some sort could very well come, potentially soon and without much notice.”

Presented Without Comment

(full story here)

Gamblers Are Dumping Stocks to Bet on Sports, New Study Says

As sports gambling takes off in the US, turning quickly into a multi-billion dollar business, a worrisome trend is starting to emerge: Americans appear to be yanking money out of their stock-brokerage accounts to fund their online betting.

This is the key finding laid out in a recent working paper titled Gambling Away Stability: Sports Betting’s Impact on Vulnerable Households. It claims to find evidence that for every dollar spent on the recreational activity – now legalized in most states since 2018 — net investments in stocks and other financial instruments dropped by just over $2.

The phenomenon is most acute among the most financially strained households, potentially the same ones attracted to get-rich-quick schemes in financial markets like meme stocks and speculative options.

Full story at Bloomberg (paywall).

Trending News:

• Trump moves to tie Harris to Biden on the economy: ‘They are a team’ - Politico

• FTC bans fake online reviews, inflated social media influence; rule takes effect in October - CNBC

• China's home-price slump deepens to new 9-year low despite stimulus - Reuters

• Biden channels $50 million to help auto suppliers on EVs - Axios

• Trump goes big on tax cut promises in Harris rebuttal - Axios

• Lacking purpose later in life could signal cognitive decline - Study Finds

• How Beijing is using the sun to fight the sand - SEMAFOR

• She knew something was wrong when he sat near her kids. He was removed from the flight. - AOL

• Why a tough-on-crime initiative is splitting California’s Democrats - Politico

• Javier Milei Got Rid of Rent Control in Argentina. Housing Supply Skyrocketed - Newsweek

• Struggle for control of Congress intensifies as presidential contest shifts - OCJ

• Fan-favorite Chick-fil-A sandwich returning to menus soon - AZ Family

• Why are religious teens happier than their secular peers? - Boston Globe

• Recovering the Ancient Wisdom of the Obama Era - The Liberal Patriot

Market snapshot: