THE SHOW NOTES: No News Till Polls Close, But…

Welcome! It is Election Day. I am broadcasting live from my flagship station, WSB in Atlanta, Georgia, and you can listen here. Likewise, you can call in at 877-973-7425. Why? Because there is not going to be a ton of news today, but I’m happy to answer your questions. Also, listen live here.

Exit Polling. About now, the second wave of Exit Polling will be released. Don’t pay any attention to any of it. The early exits, which are released around 10am and then again after noon, are unadjusted for the people who have actually voted. In other words, they tell you very little, and both sides use them to seed narratives. The final round of exit polling will hit after 5 pm and be instructive. Until then, believe no exit polling.

The Haitians Voting in Georgia. Remember the video from a week or so ago about the Haitians voting in Georgia? It showed illegal aliens with drivers licenses. They claimed they’d been in Georgia for six months, were registered to vote, and had photo identification to do so? Turns out a man in Massachusetts now admits Russian agents paid him to post the fake video.

Trend Lines and Deviations. If you’re a regular reader or listener, I tell you not to put too much stock in the numbers. They’re never right. The polling average gives a better estimation, but it is rarely on the money too. What is notable, however, is a real trend towards Harris in the polling in the last week at the national level. Late breakers did shift to her. However, I’m not sure there are enough of them to matter. More notable is that polling that takes into account the education level of voters as a demographic. Polls that do this show more substantial levels of Trump support. In national and state polling that does not factor education, Harris has an advantage. Trump has an advantage in national and state polling that does factor education. Polling in Pennsylvania, for example, that does not take into account the college educated vs. the working class shows a tied race. Polls that consider education show Trump up by as many as five points. Ann Selzer does not take into account education. Other Iowa pollsters who do show Trump winning.

The Prevailing Explanation. As I have said, the prevailing explanation for the deviation between those polls that factor in education and those that do not is that progressive white women love to talk to pollsters. Working-class men do not want to talk to pollsters.

The Cannibalized Vote. We can now discern trends by looking at states that, in early voting, passed 50% of the total possible voters in those states. Those states have cannibalized their Election Day vote, shifting it to early voting. What we discern is a lower turnout than in 2020 but higher than in 2016. We can discern black voters are not turning out as much as they have in the past. We can also discern a shift to the GOP overall. There’s been a seven point swing to Republican party affiliation in the overall vote. Patrick Ruffini has a great Twitter thread in the states where most voters have already turned out. He notes that even in states like California, where one would think enthusiasm exists for a nominee of their state and to stop Trump, the overall vote is down for Democrats. The same is playing out in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and even Oregon.

Surprises? Y’all, I cannot believe I am writing this, but Trump just might carry Kari Lake across the finish line. Also, don’t be surprised if Eric Hovde and/or Dave McCormack win. I’m not optimistic about Sam Brown, but I can hope. I’m increasingly convinced Trump might win Nevada.

So If No News? Well, I want to provide you with some really useful information and make it available to everyone, paid and unpaid subscribers. Let’s talk about how the day will progress in lieu of news.

Polls Closing at 7:00pm ET — 60 Electoral College Votes

🚨Battle Ground States: Georgia

* Poll closing times reflect when the latest poll in that state closes.

• Georgia (16 Electoral College Votes)

• Indiana* (11)

• Kentucky* (8)

• South Carolina (9)

• Vermont (3)

• Virginia (13)

Polls Closing at 7:30pm ET — 37 Electoral College Votes

🚨Battle Ground States: North Carolina

• North Carolina (16)

• Ohio (17)

• West Virginia (4)

Polls Closing at 8:00pm ET — 171 Electoral College Votes

🚨Battle Ground States: Pennsylvania

• Alabama (9)

• Connecticut (7)

• Delaware (3)

• D.C. (3)

• Florida* (30)

• Illinois (19)

• Maine (4)

• Maryland (10)

• Massachusetts (11)

• Missouri (10)

• New Hampshire (4)

• New Jersey (14)

• Oklahoma (7)

• Pennsylvania (19)

• Rhode Island (4)

• Tennessee* (11)

Polls Closing at 8:30pm ET — 6 Electoral College Votes

• Arkansas (6)

Polls Closing at 9pm ET — 163 Electoral College Votes

🚨Battle Ground States: Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin

• Arizona* (11)

• Colorado (10)

• Iowa (6)

• Kansas* (6)

• Louisiana (8)

• Michigan* (15)

• Minnesota (10)

• North Dakota (3)

• Nebraska (5)

• New Mexico (5)

• New York (28)

• South Dakota* (3)

• Texas* (40)

• Wisconsin (10)

• Wyoming (3)

Polls Closing at 10:00pm ET — 16 Electoral College Votes

🚨Battle Ground States: Nevada

• Montana (4)

• Nevada* (6)

• Utah (6)

Polls Closing at 11:00pm ET — 78 Electoral College Votes

• California (54)

• Idaho* (4)

• Oregon* (8)

• Washington (12)

Polls Closing at 12:00am ET — 4 Electoral College Votes

• Hawaii (4)

Polls Closing at 1:00am ET — 3 Electoral College Votes

• Alaska* (3)

The 2020 Election Map

The 2020 Census Changes

Remember, 2020 was also a census year. There is bipartisan agreement that, due to COVID, the 2020 Census was widely flawed, but it still governed reapportionment. It resulted in a shift to the GOP of a single Electoral College vote. 2030 is expected to result in a bigger shift. But for now, this is the shift in the Electoral College that we are dealing with.

The 2024 Map With Swing States

There are 94 Electoral College votes up for grabs.

1. Georgia will close its polling at 7pm ET, making it the first of the swing states.

2. North Carolina will close its polling at 7:30pm ET.

3. Pennsylvania will close its polling at 8pm ET.

4. Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin will close their polling at 9pm ET.

5. Nevada will close its polling at 10pm ET.

Key Counties to Watch Across America

These are the key counties across America to keep an eye on. You’re going to want to see how close the Trump margin is in each. In, for example, Hamilton County, IN, Trump is going to lose. But if he is close, that suggests he isn’t alienating Republican college educated voters. In Stafford County, VA, Harris will win, but Biden only won by 3%. Trump and Vance have both campaigned in Roanoke County, VA. How big a margin can they get there? Again, you want to see if Trump is either holding close or getting ahead in these counties.

Now, How About the Senate?

The Senate now has 51 Democrats and 49 Republicans. 33 senators are up for re-election. There is one special election being held in Nebraska to replace Senator Ben Sasse. Likewise, the California seat is open due to the death of Dianne Feinstein, with her Senate replacement not running for re-election. However, in the case of California, it is not a special election as Feinstein’s seat was up this year.

At a minimum, the Republicans should pick up two seats, for majority control of the Senate.

What About the House?

The House is tougher to predict and moves more in line with the popular vote in each state. The GOP presently has a narrow 220 to 212 margin. I expect the GOP could see its margin go up to 225 or 230.

There are 22 Democrat and 17 Republican seats considered toss-ups. There are 50 House lawmakers not running for re-election for various reasons.

I’d like to write more here, but the House is truly a wild card. Pay attention to the Republican seats in New York and Southern California. Those will help determine who wins the House.

Also pay attention to Nebraska 2. Currently held by Don Bacon, he is a moderate Republican who has withstood a lot of Democrat money, but many outside observers expect him to lose this time. I hope he does not. The list of toss-up seats with a link to RealClearPolitics is below:

• AKAL

• AZ1

• AZ6

• CA13

• CA27

• CA41

• CA45

• CA47

• CT5

• IA1

• IA2

• IN1

• ME2

• MI10

• MI3

• MI7

• MI8

• MN2

• NC1

• NH1

• NJ7

• NM2

• NV3

• NV4

• NY17

• NY19

• NY22

• OH13

• OR5

• PA10

• PA7

• PA8

• TX34

• VA10

• VA2

• VA7

• WA3

• WI3

• CO8

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