THE SHOW NOTES: Non-Response Bias, Fresh Polling, & Republicans Up In New York
BREAKING: Chief Justice John Roberts puts a temporary hold on the release of Trump’s tax returns to Congress.
NEW: The Libertarian Senate candidate in Arizona just dropped out and endorsed Blake Masters.
HEADLINE: Leaked Documents Outline DHS’s Plans to Police Disinformation
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Clip of the day:
Fresh Polling
A poll of registered voters done by The Wall Street Journal finds voters favor Republicans over Democrats on a generic congressional ballot by two points. The same poll favored Democrats by three points in August.
Registered voter polls - as opposed to likely voter polls - historically favor Democrats which suggests the Republican lead on the congressional ballot may be understated.
Non-Response Bias
Nate Cohn at The New York Times (paywall) addresses the question we are all wondering: What if the polls are wrong? Most pollsters agree that polling was off in 2020 because Republican voters were less likely to speak with a pollster which resulted in an oversampling of Democrats. Cohn says the problem is back:
While nonresponse bias is challenging to prove, there was one possible marker of it in the New York Times/Siena College data in 2020: White registered Democrats were more than 20 percent likelier to respond to our surveys than white registered Republicans.
In our final wave of Senate and House polls in the last few days, that hallmark of nonresponse bias looks as if it’s back.
Why is Biden in Florida?
Exactly one week before election day, Joe Biden is headed to the bright red state of Florida. Even Democrats are wondering… why?
A few data points: 1) Democrats have not won a statewide race in Florida since Obama won the state in 2012. 2) The liberal enclave of Miami has a Republican mayor. 3) Ron DeSantis and Marco Rubio are significantly ahead in their respective races.
New York Race For Governor
This is from The New York Post:
Republican Rep. Lee Zeldin has nudged out Democratic rival Gov. Kathy Hochul in New York’s closely watched gubernatorial race — just a week out from the election, a new poll shows.
The tough-on-crime Zeldin is leading the progressive incumbent governor by 48.4% to 47.6%, according to the Trafalgar Group poll released late Monday.
Go deeper: State of ‘denial’: Hochul calls crime woes GOP ‘conspiracy,’ NYers say it’s real - NY Post
Americans For Prosperity
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The rest of the news:
Nearly every top Twitter exec is gone days after Musk takeover - Axios
Democrats rush aid to deep-blue seat in Upstate New York - Politico
Let’s Declare A Pandemic Amnesty - The Atlantic
Iran is preparing to send additional weapons including ballistic missiles to Russia to use in Ukraine, western officials say - CNN
U.S. "not going to waste time" on Iran deal right now, official says - Axios
Migos rapper Takeoff dead at 28, shot and killed in Houston - Page Six
Elon Musk has pulled more than 50 Tesla employees into his Twitter takeover - CNBC
The Media’s Delusional Midterm Coverage - National Review
Biden bashes oil sector for ‘war profiteering,’ warns of windfall tax on profits - Politico
So Much for Israeli Voter Fatigue: Early Turnout Is Highest in Years - NYT (paywall)
Three tweets that caught my eye:
Dem in New York:
Market Snapshot:
The Florida visit is simple. You win Florida, you win the presidency... Isn't that it? I know it is the mid-terms, but I'm not sure someone else does.
President Biden should lead by example he has done his best to empty our oil reserves by selling it to our enemy ( China) . Did we sell it at a loss or did he profit from it ?