THE SHOW NOTES: Polling Breakdown, Cutting Oil Production, & Doubling Deficits
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2024: Democratic elites struggle to get voters as excited about Biden as they are.
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2024
A shocking 59% of Republican primary voters tell Wall Street Journal pollsters that Donald Trump is their top choice. Trump leads second-placed DeSantis by 46 points with Nikki Haley earning 12% in third place.
Why this matters: The Wall Street Journal poll is one of the more reputable polls as a Democrat and a Republican conduct it. The data shows Trump opening up an 11-point lead over DeSantis since a previous WSJ survey in April.
Perspective: While the poll is objectively bad news for the rest of the GOP field, the sampling is a nationwide survey that does not account for the preferences in early primary states. A majority of these states show Trump with a lead that is well below this national average.
Tied: In a hypothetical general election matchup, the same poll shows Joe Biden and Donald Trump tied at 46% apiece. The bad news for Biden doesn’t stop there:
73% say Biden is too old to run for President.
36% say Biden is mentally up for the job.
37% approve of Biden’s handling of the economy.
34% approve of Biden’s handling of inflation.
Bad to worse: Nate Cohn at The New York Times says non-white support of Biden is cratering in a disturbing new poll for the president. Biden’s 70% support of non-white voters in the 2020 election is down to 53% but is a sign of a larger national trend. This is from The New York Times:
Democrats have lost ground among nonwhite voters in almost every election over the last decade, even as racially charged fights over everything from a border wall to kneeling during the national anthem might have been expected to produce the exact opposite result. Weak support for Mr. Biden could easily manifest itself as low turnout — as it did in 2022 — even if many young and less engaged voters ultimately do not vote for Mr. Trump.
References: WSJ, WSJ, NYT, CNBC
Oil Cuts
Saudi Arabia and Russia are extending their oil production cuts through the end of the year sending oil prices soaring higher. Brent oil hit $90 per barrel for the first time since November of last year.
Why this matters: The price of a gallon of gas currently sits hear a record high of $3.83 per gallon. Additional oil cuts
Doubling Deficits
Deficit spending from the federal government is expected to double this year from $1 trillion to $2 trillion according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
Context: Despite indisputable surging deficits, President Biden bragged at a Labor Day event that he cut the deficit by $1.7 trillion. “Unlike the last president, in my first two years — all this stuff, guess what? — I cut the deficit $1.7 trillion, cut the debt $1.7 trillion.”
Reality: According to the Treasury Department’s own data, the year-over-year deficit spending stands at a record $1.61 trillion.
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