The Show Notes: Polling Flub, Rail Strike, & Ukraine Surges
Welcome! New Orleans mayor says flying economy is unsafe for black women.
Headline: New York has declared a state of emergency for polio.
NEW: GOP megadonor Peter Thiel hits Republicans for lacking positive message ahead of midterms - Fox News
The Show Notes is my blueprint for radio but is only for subscribers. You can subscribe here and listen here. The show starts now.
Clip of the day:
Warning Sign for Democrats?
Nate Cohn at The New York Times reports this morning that Democrats are outperforming Republicans in the same places that polls overcounted Democratic support for Clinton in 2016 and Biden in 2020. The analysis comes as a warning sign for Democratic Senate candidates who are leading in the same swing states polls missed in 2016 and 2020.
The shockingly blunt piece goes on to say “It raises the possibility that the apparent Democratic strength in Wisconsin and elsewhere is a mirage — an artifact of persistent and unaddressed biases in survey research.” Ouch. Here’s a free version of the story.
Rail-Strike Deadline Carries Economic and Political Risks for Biden
This is from Bloomberg:
“Tens of thousands of US railroad workers could be on strike by the end of this week, a potential new shock to supply chains that would pose a pre-midterm political quandary for President Joe Biden and the Democrats.
Negotiators met through the weekend trying to reach a deal with two unions covering some 57,000 engineers and conductors -- a tired-and-riled workforce that emerged from the pandemic-rattled economy. Ten other unions involved have reached tentative agreements, though such deals require ratification by members. US Labor Secretary Marty Walsh met with both sides last week.”
(Here’s a free version.)
Ukraine Recaptures
Ukraine’s military recaptured 20 settlements in 24 hours from the Russians in northeastern Ukraine that equals the size of London. The advacement is the most progress seen by the Ukrainian military in months. Credit for the positive news may be owed to “very efficient weapons” provided to Ukraine from Germany.
Is Fetterman Ok?
The rest of the news:
San Diego teacher defines 'fascist' to class as 'whites,' 'heterosexuals,' and 'Christians' - Washington Examiner
Gas prices keep plunging - Axios
50 Million People Stuck In 'Modern Slavery': UN - Barrons
Republicans have a 74% chance of winning the House. - FiveThirtyEight
A former MLB pitcher who became a police officer was killed in a crash while on his way to a 9/11 memorial ceremony - CNN
Goldman’s Apple Card business has a surprising subprime problem - CNBC
The Bears Holder Got An Unsportsmanlike Conduct Penalty For Wiping Down The Field With His Towel And Pushed Them Out Of Field Goal Range - Barstool
How Gisele Bündchen is supporting Tom Brady for Buccaneers opener after spat - NY Post
Ex-Trump lawyer Ty Cobb says ex-president faces ‘very high’ chance of indictment - Yahoo
Goalkeeper Jeremias Ledesma runs across pitch to help save fan's life during Barcelona's match with Cadiz - CNN
Biden heading to Boston to deliver ‘Cancer Moonshot’ speech - WAPO (paywall)
Tweets that caught my eye:
Market snapshot:
Seeing Kamala Harris, I thought, "This may be the single most incompetent member of the Biden Administration'."
But then I thought about Mayor Pete, Mayorkis, Granholm, Blinken, Austin and even Biden himself.
It's pretty near impossible to narrow it down to one.
I don’t do Twitter so I can’t respond there to Kamala’s incoherent rambling. I think what she was trying to say is this: “Is the border secure? The border is secure because to secure the border, you have to have a border first and we have that. Then you have to hire security people and we have some people in those jobs. Therefore we have a border and we have security people so in my mind we have a secured border.”