THE SHOW NOTES: The Deceptive Jobs Report, Russia's Visit to Cuba, & The Shocking Poll In Virginia

Welcome! Pat Sajak’s final Wheel of Fortune episode airs tonight.

SHOCK DATA: Americans must earn $106k/year per year to afford a typical American home which is drastically up from $59k in 2020. - Zillow

CONFIRMED: Four Russian warships arrive in Havana next week.

NEW: Biden rules out pardon for son Hunter - Axios

WATCH: Chelsea Handler reminded 50 Cent he can’t vote for Trump “because he’s black.”

The Show Notes is my blueprint for radio but is only for subscribers. You can subscribe and listen here.

The Deceptive Jobs Report

At first glance, the Labor Department’s initial nonfarm payroll jobs report appears to be favorable with an impressive 272,000 new jobs added in May which notably beat analysts’ expectations by nearly 100,000 jobs. But that’s not the full story.

Details: While the top line number looks great, the discrepancy between part-time and full-time workers continues to diverge. Part-time employment went up by 286,000 jobs while full-time employment went down by 625,000 jobs marking the largest drop in six months. Government employment was the second largest contributor behind healthcare to the new jobs created.

Important: The unemployment rate jumped for the first time since January of 2022 to 4% sending markets down and calling into question the health of the broader US labor market.

Morgan Stanely’s reaction: “We think the Fed will see the rise in the unemployment rate as a sign of further slackening (in the labor market).”

Bloomberg’s reaction: "The higher unemployment rate... should keep September interest rate cut squarely on the table. The higher unemployment rate, now 0.6% above the cycle low, and downward revisions to prior months’ payroll numbers tell a story of deteriorating labor market."

Economist Anna Wong: “May’s jobs report presented contradictory views of the labor market, as we expected. The establishment survey shows robust gains in nonfarm payrolls — yet the unemployment rate rose to 4.0%. We believe the latter currently offers a closer approximation of reality than payrolls, as BLS’ model for estimating business births and deaths – which added 231,000 jobs to the nonfarm-payrolls print in May – is lagging the reality of surging establishment closures and falling business formation. We think the underlying pace of current job gains is likely less than 100,000 per month.” - Zero Hedge

Shock Poll: Virginia

A brand new post-conviction Fox News poll has Donald Trump tied with Joe Biden in the state of Virginia.

Why this matters: Virginia is not one of the six widely accepted swing states and calls into question whether Biden’s plan to focus on winning the Rust Belt states is a viable reelection strategy. Biden won Virginia by nearly 10 points in 2020.

Watch: The CNN reaction is quite telling:

Trending news:

• US military’s Gaza pier has been repaired and reattached to beach - CNN

• The health care workforce crisis is already here - Axios

• Wall Street Admits The Biggest Economic Shocker: All Jobs In The Past Year Have Gone To Illegal Aliens - ZeroHedge

• Norway mining group announces ‘huge’ find of rare earth deposits - Muser

• Alex Jones Moves to Liquidate Assets and Relinquish Ownership of Infowars  - Mediaite

• Netanyahu to address Congress on July 24 - Politico

• National Doughnut Day: Free doughnuts from Krispy Kreme, Dunkin’ and other chains - CNN

• George Clooney fretted to White House that wife Amal could face sanctions over ICC case against Israel: report - NY Post

• Biden apologizes to Zelenskyy for monthslong congressional holdup to weapons that let Russia advance - AP

• ‘Baby Reindeer’s Real-Life Martha Pursues Netflix With $170M Defamation & Negligence Suit - Deadline

• A Belated Apology for ‘2000 Mules’ - WSJ (paywall)

Market snapshot: