THE SHOW NOTES: The Iranian President, Inflation Under Biden, & How Bad Is Kari Lake?

Welcome! Prosecutors plan to drop charges against Scottie Scheffler.

NASCAR CHAOS: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. threw a punch at Kyle Busch after last night’s All-Star Race.

KC NEWSPAPER: The KC Chiefs should fire Harrison Butker and hire someone who kicks like a girl - Kansas City Star

OUTRAGE: Transgender high school runner in Oregon booed after winning girls’ state title - NY Post

HEADLINE: God Inc.—Church Startups Spread Franchise Model Across U.S. - WSJ (free)

OPINION: Gavin Newsom’s Battleground Gift to Donald Trump - WSJ (free)

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Iran & Israel

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi was killed when his helicopter crashed near the country’s northeastern border with Azerbaijan following a diplomatic visit. It is presumed that dense fog obscured the visibility resulting in a “difficult landing” that killed all nine people on board.

Why this matters: In Iran, the President is largely a figurehead who handles some domestic policy but takes a significant backseat to the broad powers given to the Supreme Leader. According to CNN, President Raisi was a charismatic leader with a judicial background who assumed office by promising to improve the domestic economy which has kept nearly half of the country in poverty. In reality, the Iranian economy significantly declined under Raisi due to post-pandemic inflation and Western sanctions.

Important: The death of Raisi is expected to have little impact on Iranian politics but drastically increases the odds that the 85-year-old Supreme Leader’s replacement will be his son. Raisi and Khamenei’s son were widely considered to be the two leading contenders on a very short list of replacements.

ICC: The International Criminal Court has just issued an arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu along with the three top commanders of Hamas. Here’s the news when it broke on CNN:

Seriously, Reuters?

How Bad Is Kari Lake? Bad.

Failed Arizona gubernatorial candidate and current candidate for US Senate, Kari Lake, is 13 points behind her Republican opponent in a recent CBS poll among likely voters. The same poll has Donald Trump AHEAD of Joe Biden by five points in the state of Arizona.

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Market snapshot: