The Show Notes: TX-34, Oil Threats, & Who Exactly Supports Biden?
Welcome! Here’s the fastest election night summary on the net: Laxalt ✅, Flores ✅, Mace ✅, Rice ❌
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Must read: Democrats Don't Need a New Candidate. They Need to Show They Care About Inflation and Gas Prices. - Josh Barro
Everything you need to know about the fed announcement today. - CNBC
Car sales are plunging. - Bloomberg
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Clip of the day:
Mayra Flores
Republicans have flipped the 34th Texas congressional seat for the first time in 100 years. Here’s what I wrote this morning about the race.
Overnight, pro-life Republican Mayra Flores won a special election in Texas, taking a reliably Democrat area, the 34th congressional district. It is the second most Hispanic congressional district in the nation with an 84.5% Hispanic population (for you Democrats, that’s “Latinx”). Flores is only the second Republican to flip a majority Democrat district in the Rio Grande Valley in over 100 years. The first time that happened was 2010. The Hispanic shift is real, even without Trump on the ballot. Flores will also be the first Mexican-born member of Congress. Look for that to get ignored by the cultural elite.
Exactly Who Supports Biden?
All 50 Democratic Senators were contacted by the Daily Caller to answer one simple question: Would you support Joe Biden if he runs again in 2024? Only five said yes. The shocking story comes after AOC patently refused to comment on her 2024 endorsement plans when asked by Dana Bash at CNN. Ouch.
Biden’s Oil Problem
As diesel fuel notches another record price today, President Biden sent oil executives a letter claiming that he's considering the option of invoking emergency powers to boost U.S. oil refinery output. The letter essentially claims that oil companies are making too much money right now. The last paragraph of the Axios article tells the full story:
Oil and gas producers have criticized the administration for not issuing new drilling leases on public lands, canceling the Keystone Pipeline and emphasizing its net zero carbon emissions climate agenda.
How big of a wave can House Republicans expect?
You need to read this from National Journal:
“If Republicans net 35 seats, they’d hold their biggest House majority since 1929. If they win 29 seats, they’d match the number of seats held after the 2010 midterms.”
Even if we assume that House Republicans will cash in on their favorable political environment, there’s still plenty of confusion over how to predict the size of the wave. The Washington Post’s Paul Kane wrote a smart piece last weekend underscoring the confusion over what the best metric is, citing a disputed quote by House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy that the 2022 midterms could be “more competitive” than the 2010 midterms, when House Republicans netted 63 additional seats. National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Tom Emmer walked back the leader’s bullishness, suggesting that a mere 18-seat gain would already be historic for House Republicans.
The reality: McCarthy was correct that the political environment in 2022 could potentially be even more favorable for Republicans than in 2010, but it’s nearly impossible for the party to net 63 seats given that they’re already within striking distance of the majority right now. Back in 2010, a sizable number of old-time Democrats still representing conservative territory got swept away in the red wave. In 2022, if Republicans hit their more optimistic marks, nearly all of their pickups will be in Biden-friendly territory, including in some solidly blue seats that haven’t been competitive in a long time. (There are only five Democrats left representing districts that Donald Trump carried.)
War in Ukraine reaches pivotal moment
This is from CNN:
Ukraine's military is burning through Soviet-era ammunition that fits older systems as the country pleads with the West to send more heavy weaponry and Russia amasses a significant artillery advantage around two strategically important cities in eastern Ukraine.
Western intelligence and military officials believe Russia's war in Ukraine is in a critical stage that could determine the long-term outcome of the conflict, according to multiple sources familiar with US and other Western intelligence.
This pivotal moment could also force a tough decision for Western governments, which have up until now offered support to Ukraine at a steadily increasing cost to their own economies and national stockpiles of weapons.
The rest of the news:
US abortions rise: 1 in 5 pregnancies terminated in 2020 - AP
Guns Are Normal and Normal People Use Guns - The Reload
Scoop: Keisha Lance Bottoms to join White House - Axios
Herschel Walker Says He’s a Model Dad. He Has a Secret Son. - Daily Beast
Bitcoin Price Careens Toward $20,000 as Cryptocurrency Rout Deepens - WSJ
Russians control 80 percent of key Ukraine city, cut escape routes - Politico
Record-High 50% of Americans Rate U.S. Moral Values as 'Poor' - Gallup
Why Rural Internet Is Still Terrible, Despite Billions in Federal Spending - WSJ
Apparently the Browns Have a Way Out of Their Contract With Deshaun Watson if the Allegations Against Him Keep Coming - Barstool
U.S. Home Equity Hits Highest Level on Record—$27.8 Trillion - WSJ
Time to go bargin hunting? - Bloomberg
Biden to Unveil Plan for Next Pandemic While Seeking $88 Billion in Funds - Yahoo
Japan makes 'online insults' punishable by one year in prison in wake of reality TV star's death - CNN
Thieves disappear with 20 shipping containers full of gold and silver ore and TVs from Mexico seaport - CBS
Maryland’s outgoing GOP Governor Larry Hogan is eyeing a 2024 run for president. He is also leaving behind a mass transit mess. - Washington Monthly