The Show Notes: Walker Leads Warnock, Biden's Pro-Police Move, & The Housing Crisis
Welcome! The US says Russia is now in possession of Iranian drones.
Must read: The Mystery of the Missing Republican Ad Money
Breaking Down the Latest Crop of LIV Golfers and What It All Means For Golf's Civil War - Barstool
What: Man Sleeps in Bed With an ‘Emotional Support’ Alligator – and He’s Not Even from Florida
Quote of the day: Democratic candidates are still leery about campaigning with Biden. This is from NBC:
“Democratic candidates are tiptoeing around his (Biden’s) official visits, making case-by-case decisions about whether to appear with him. They're also speaking out against him on certain issues.”
Clip of the day:
Important:
🚨 Walker Leads Warnock
Herschel Walker has officially pulled ahead of Raphael Warnock in the first poll conducted after Biden’s student loan forgiveness plan was announced. The Emmerson College Polling survey had Walker ahead 46% to 44%. Check out the full story here. Excerpt:
Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling said, “Walker leads Warnock among rural voters 58% to 24% while Warnock leads Walker 66% to 25% among urban voters. In the suburbs, voters are breaking for Walker by a nine-point margin, 50% to 41%.”
Crime Surge
The homicide rate surged more than 30% in the first year of the pandemic and is yet to return to prepandemic norms. This is one of the many reasons that voters disproportionatly give Republicans higher marks on fighting crime than any other issue according to IPSOS. Joe Biden is hoping to “flip the script” by giving a speech in Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania outlining everything his administration has done to fight crime and fund police. Swing state Democrats are doing the same:
Top FBI agent resigns amid claims he shielded Hunter Biden from probe
This is from The New York Post:
“A top FBI agent at the Washington field office reportedly resigned from his post last week after facing intense scrutiny over allegations he helped shield Hunter Biden from criminal investigations into his laptop and business dealings.
Timothy Thibault, an FBI assistant special agent in charge, was allegedly forced out after he was accused of political bias in his handling of probes involving President Biden’s son, sources told the Washington Times on Monday.”
Housing Crisis
This is a 10-part Twitter thread that brilliantly highlights why housing is in trouble. Well worth a look:
The rest of the news:
White House refuses to explain who will pay for Biden's $500B student loan handout - Fox News
Dems interfere in GOP primary in New Hampshire - Politico
‘There’s enormous frustration’: Trump forces Republicans off-script… again - Politico
Democrats love that Trump distracts from their failures - NY Post
Heavy fighting rages in Ukraine’s Russian-occupied south - AP
Hurricane Alley Hasn’t Been This Quiet in a Quarter Century - Bloomberg (paywall)
Violent street gang broke into Atlanta homes of celebrities, athletes and influencers, prosecutor says - NBC
US housing markets are slowing. Is Florida the exception? - Yahoo
For Many Americans, Cancel Culture is Self-Inflicted - Reason
UK inflation could top 22% as energy prices soar, Goldman Sachs warns - CNBC
Musk cites Twitter whistleblower claims as new justifications for backing out of deal - CNN
How Two Mexican Drug Cartels Came to Dominate America’s Fentanyl Supply - WSJ (paywall)
Tweets that caught my eye:
Thread:
Market snapshot:
Biden gets the blame for inflation, and to be sure his monetary policies are directly responsible for a lot of the current economic pain. But we didn't get here in a vaccume, the low interest rates have been here for a decade, Washington has been printing money like water for decades.
W Bush spend money like a drunken sailor. Medicare part B, seriously? Free medication for the group that hold the most wealth in the history of the world so they could keep their money in the bank and stimulate Eastern European economies by giving billions to scammers.
Keynesian economics to the destruction...
2008 TARP let's print half a trillion+ dollars and bail out wall street. Half the funds were authorized by Congress as Bush was leaving office at Present-elect Obama's request. It should have been returned to the treasury, never spent.
And why was wall street in this predicament? We can go back to Jimmy Carter's CRA, which Clinton doubled down on. Let's force banks to give trillions in loans to people that will likely default. No problem we will invent high return insurance, re-insurance, and re-re-insurance. Heroin for wall street. It all came crashing down in a cacophony.
2008 should have been the sobering up moment. Instead the Government came in with the narcan which encouraged the would be heroin addicts. Much like Uber reduced DIU's but binge drinking went up. The controlling, immediate consequence, which also passively controlled other behavior, was removed.
GM still declared bankruptcy, Bank of America is still saddled with the albatross Merrill Lynch, how many 401ks are suffering from that forced buy?
Factor in inflation and TARP cost the American tax payers and contributed to where we are today.
More Keynesian economics, Obama added anywhere from trillions to doubling the deficit, spending (printing) money we don't have.
Contrary to popular belief the deficit has not been 0 in the last 100 years. Budgets that don't add to the deficit don't mean the balance has actually come down. Bush 43 came into office with 5+ trillion 55% of GDP.
Obama drove us over the fiscal cliff leaving office with 19+ trillion, 105% of GDP. His policies, much like FDR and the depression, actually slowed the recession recovery and prolonged it.
Trump took us to 28 trillion, 129% of GDP.
There is always an excuse, a cost-benefit discussion. Where we have been for more than a decade is that debate is really about doing something that will absolutely cause harm and rationalized as "less bad'.
It's not all Biden's fault, or Trump's, or Obama's, or Bush 43, or 9/11 & Afghanistan, or the great recession, or COVID.
The space program from 1960-73 spent over $1 trillion (adjusted). In the 60's we were enjoying 4%-6% per year real GDP growth. Since 2001 the highest is 3.9% in 2004, a total of -6% in that period.
From 2008 to 2022 we had a 20% increase in GDP, and a 100% increase in the deficit. Where is the cost benefit?
Europe is languishing under the green agenda, the U.S. is, but the possibility of tens of thousands dying in the winter of 2022/23 is very real.
I suspect an actual depression is on the way. For too long economic policies were about preventing pain rather than allowing some pain in normal economic cycle. Like a system that builds up potential energy it ultimately has to be released. All the world's economies are about to explode.
There is an ecconomic uncertainty theory that basically says it is not possible to modulate tbe economy in a way prevent downturns that cause some pain to some people. The government should not try. Sound economic policy is keeping the sine wave average, not smoothing it out so no one gets hurt.
Keynesian economics has objectively, repeatedly failed. It is responsible for most of the bad (evidenced by negative consequences) economic policies for the last 90 years.
I think we are headed for an honest to God depression, forget about the 2008 recession. Sustained inflation at 8+% and interest rates climbing higher mean hunkering down. So you have a job, you limit your spending.
Target sales nonexistent, no merchandise, Walmart canceling billions in orders.
Oh, the economy is producing 300k to 400k jobs a month, it's like no other recession. It's smoke and mirrors.
I was RIF'ed in July, I was able to get another job. Corporate America is playing musical chairs with their employees.
Money is the music, it's slowing down now. When millions of people making financial decisions every day all make the same decisions the music stops.