There is a rule in American politics as fixed as gravity. When a party senses true and real momentum headed in their direction, they always overplay their hand. It’s the Democrats’ turn to overplay their hand. In fact, I’d argue the GOP would have overplayed their hand except the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision threw everything for a curveball we still haven’t quite sorted out. The Democrats seized on that and started their own spiral.
With Dobbs, rebounding poll numbers, and a narrowing generic ballot, Democrats decided to bail out student loans. The independent observers say it is both inflationary and helps the people who need the least help. The partisans told them it was okay. They had data to back up the partisans. They did it.
Then the President went out and yet again focused on Republicans as fascists. Over at MSNBC, DNC Adviser Kurt Bardella said, “The Republican Party is basically a domestic terrorist cell at this point, and they should be treated as such.” John Avalon, at CNN, forthrightly pointed out this is not helpful language from the newly emboldened Democrats. In a state like New Hampshire, Democrats come in third behind Republicans and Independents. It’s going to be hard for swing state Democrats to make inroads to a group of people who voted for Trump when Democrats declare them fascists and terrorists.
Now, Reuters tells us President Biden’s approval is declining again and the GOP generic ballot is growing again. The polling averages show a blip up to the GOP and a blip down to Biden, and we aren’t even at October.
ADP is reporting this morning that companies have dramatically slowed the pace of hiring. Wages have spiked, but still not enough to keep up with inflation and, ironically, the wage spike will contribute to inflation. The Federal Reserve is set to keep raising interest rates to fight that inflation. More Americans are worried about a recession to the extent Axios is reporting some are beginning Christmas shopping now while they have money.
Down in Georgia, 34N22, the Super PAC helping Herschel Walker has found the GOP’s closing message. It is exactly what every Republican everywhere needs to be focused on. It comes as two separate polls show Walker now leading Warnock, ahead of when Republicans usually do in Georgia.
Add all these things up, and we have a scenario of Democrats now overplaying their hands, the GOP getting back to the economy as the message, and the vibe shifting again. Oh, and it comes just as all the partisans pretending to be independent analysts tell us the GOP wave has turned into a puddle. Everything is right on schedule for likely voter polling in October to more accurately reflect the landscape of November and probably still miss it just a bit.
And the response of Pennsylvania Democrats is... an utterly confusing mail in voter registration form including a mail in ballot application. I'm sure that there's no possible way that vote fraud had ever entered the Fetterman crowd's little minds there. We still need to be on our guard 24/7, as this is precisely the environment in which the left's minds fondly turn to thoughts of theft.
Note to ALL Republican candidates and to the party's campaign committees: The phrase "the Biden/(insert name of Democrat candidate here) party" must be a fixture in all campaign ads from now until November 8th. That is especially true in the case of pretend Democrat "moderates" like Mark Kelly in Arizona. They bought Joe Biden; now they have to pay for him 100% of the time.
That’s just to let you know how much more they could have charged you if they really wanted to.