Y'all Need to Shut Up
Editor’s Note: I’ll be on with Mark Halperin this morning at 9:00 a.m.
Politics is not hard. The odds may be against you in certain election years. But politics is about finding a message that persuades a majority of undecided, unaffiliated voters to join your side for the majority. Sometimes, the headwinds are so strong against you that you cannot do it. Sometimes, it works.
The parties are mostly at parity right now. There is a block of independent voters who will go either way. In the mix are also single-issue voters. The most common single-issue voters are those who vote about the environment, abortion, and the Second Amendment.
Voters who vote on the environment almost always vote Democrat.
Abortion voters are split between the pro-abortion Democrats and the pro-life Republicans, though the majority of single-issue abortion voters lean Republican.
Second Amendment voters overwhelmingly vote Republican. Though there are some anti-gun single-issue voters, most people motivated to vote on gun issues are voting to preserve the Second Amendment.
There are other single-issue voters, though these three are the most common. There are, for example, single-issue Trump voters these days. Some only vote if Trump is on the ballot and they are for him. Anti-Trump single-issue voters need no motivation to turn out if Trump is in the White House.
In 2026, the Republicans control the White House, which means the GOP is playing defense. They need to rally as many of their base voters as possible. The GOP has now lost eight state legislative special elections, which is a reminder of how hard it is to turn out Trump voters when he is not on the ballot. It is also a reminder to Republicans that when they control the White House, they tend to get penalized.
As a result, it behooves the GOP to motivate as many of its single-issue voters. Pro-life voters and gun voters are more willing to turn out for the GOP in a midterm with or without Trump than Trump’s most ardent supporters are. Those ardent supporters will show up to vote for Trump and vote down ballot for Republicans. They just are not reliable in midterms, see e.g. 2018.
That is why Republican leaders in Washington really need to shut the hell up on gun issues right now. Here is the United States Attorney for the District of Columbia on Fox News yesterday.
This comes a week after Alex Pretti’s death, when the President and others in his Administration also attacked Second Amendment rights.
I cannot think of a strategy better able to alienate Second Amendment voters from showing up in the midterms.
On top of that, the Trump Administration has been alienating pro-life voters. They have refused to roll back the expansion of the abortion drug. The President has sought to gut the Hyde Amendment.
This is all just bad politics. Forget the policy, though I disagree there, too. The GOP needs every avaiable right-leaning voter to show up in November and the Trump Administration is working overtime alienating their two most reliable single-issue constituencies.
This is, to say the least, unwise.
The Dog Caught the Car
James Comer, Chairman of the House Oversight Committee, wants to launch his bid for Governor of Kentucky, having taken on the Clintons. He is going to succeed in that as the former President and First Lady have agreed to testify before the House Oversight Committee. They did not have much choice.
I have not been particularly impressed with the House Oversight Committee, which has become more a vehicle for grandstanding than serious inquiry. Likewise, I think Republicans have visions of the Clintons repeatedly taking the Fifth Amendment and that somehow advancing the GOP’s cause.
But I can also see the Clintons exercising their Fifth Amendment rights to Republicans while Democrats ask questions like, “Mr. President, could you please remind us what the economy was like when you were President?”
“Senator Clinton, can you tell us how it feels to be dragged into the Jeffrey Epstein scandal by Republicans who are trying to distract Americans from their grocery bills?”
Good luck with this, you guys. I guess you’ve all forgotten Bill Clinton was sort of the primordial Donald Trump, the Slick Willie to the Teflon Don.
All my Republican friends are going to love it. The problem is, so will all the Democrats.
God has got this. God has got this. God has got this. God has got this.
Just reminding myself what is really important. I wish I could touch some grass.
God has got this. God has got this. God has got this. God has got this.
Never underestimate the GOPs ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. In the era of democratic political malpractice on almost every front, the GOP can't get out of their own way. I used to think it was simply incompetence on their part. Now, I'm willing to assign malicious intent to maintain wealth and power, elevated above the hoi polloi masses. We have an American aristocracy in our politicians and they are happy to tax our cake and eat it too.