42 Days
As we count down to Election Day, now forty-two days away, I’m on the road a lot. Today, I’m in Kiawah Island, South Carolina at a conference. The feeling among the conservatives here is mixed. We are in a very tied race. One candidate is playing a poor hand well. The other is playing a great hand not so well. Neither side’s base of support can really process just how tied the race is. Both are in bubbles of their own making, having difficulty understanding how the other half of the country is thinking.
Democrats really see Trump as a threat to democracy. They find January 6, 2021, to be completely disqualifying. They view Republicans as an existential threat to abortion rights, trans rights, etc.
Republicans really see the Democrats as a threat to democracy. They find the Summer riots of 2020 and the Harris-Walz efforts to help the rioters disqualifying. They view Democrats as an existential threat to their religious practices, their families, and their way of life.
Independents hate them all. They hate grocery prices and high gas prices. They do not like Donald Trump. They do not know Kamala Harris, but they know the Biden-Harris Administration, and they do not like it. They prefer Trump’s policies, but they do not like him.
For the next 42 days, Harris must remain an enigma so independents do not fully connect her to Biden’s policies. Meanwhile, Trump needs to focus on groceries, taxes, and illegal aliens.
Trump is probably winning Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. The question is and has always been Pennsylvania. A pollster told me that Trump could not get above 48% in his private polls in Pennsylvania, no matter how often he conducts them. However, there is a Republican surge in voter registration there, but the Trump ground game in Pennsylvania is non-existent.
In a close election, a ground game matters. In a tied race, it is everything. That may come back to haunt Trump’s team. But, with 42 days to go, events can change things. With the Middle East heating up and recession indicators flashing despite interest rate cuts, you still have to give the advantage to Trump. Just about any event that happens will implicate the Biden-Harris Administration, not Trump.
However it winds up in forty-two days, the loser will claim it was stolen. And off we’ll go to midterms.
I cannot wait for this election cycle to be over. I am tired of the election commercials which tell half truths or outright lies , from both side. I am especially tired of the endless "election coverage" by the MSM which is sucking up all of the airtime that could be covering world news. But, day two, after the election, the MSM will start contemplating how the 2024 election will affect the 2028 midterms. Election coverage is now a never ending reality show just like any of the Real Housewives of....
Well, the good news. It may fall back into Republicans that the Senate, but as Erick always says, 'never underestimate the ability of Republicans to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.' :(. There are two things going on (ok, one is going on, and the other stopped) that I find fascinating. Netanyahu got back from the U.S. With his last meeting being with Harris, he promptly went out and assassinated three key leaders of Hezbaloh, with one blast happening in Iran (that could be seen as an act of war). And we have all seen the aggressive actions taken on the Northern Border with Lebanon in the last week. So why now? 1). He has concluded that Harris very well may win, and that will change the dynamics of Israel's relationship with the U.S. 2). He knows that now is the time to strike because the Democrat's response has to be muted at the risk of losing Jewish support at a critical time in the election cycle. 3). By stepping up attacks, he is forcing both parties in this country to show their cards 'now'. 4). All of the above? And the other 'non-action' that dominated the entire spring. Where are the campus protests? Are they still out there? If not - why not? What happened? This dominated the news for three months! If so, why isn't it being covered, at least by conservative news outlets? Did all of the professors involved resign? Did all of the angry students graduate? This makes no sense unless you conclude that this was a highly organized effort in the first place that had the ability to start up and keep it going but also the ability to shut it down... It's going to be an interesting last six weeks...