63 Comments

A couple days ago I read an article in Erick's show notes about the wide gap between what people say publicly versus what they really feel or believe. Which leads me to yesterday's trip to Chicago, during which I was stunned to find myself talking to Trump supporters. Not in hushed tones, mind you, but in open support. It's fun to pontificate, but none of us really knows what the outcome will be until we reach the early hours of November 6th.

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But, speaking of "42," the Dow is over 42,000 going into today. In the early 2000s, I believe it was John Zogby who said, "If the Dow is over X, the (one party) wins; if it's below Y, the (other party) wins." That doesn't seem to get mention anymore (at least on Fox and Newsmax, which I listen to). But there a LOT of independents with 401Ks or just wise stock brokers who have not taken much or any loss on net from the Biden Inflation. If the market were at 32,000, the GOP would be looking awfully good.

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Sep 24·edited Sep 24

Well, I have been a Republican for my entire voting life, and I also think 1/6 disqualifies Trump, at least for my vote. Also, his proposed10% tariff on all imported goods is another disqualifier. In this regard, I am voting the economy, my economy that is. My company sells high quality outdoor recreation products that are manufactured in Europe. A 10% tariff, that we would have to pass on to our customers, would be devastating to our business. So, I will be voting for Kamala in the hope that a loss for Trump will be the first step to getting the Republican Party back to its former principles and away from mindless MAGA populism. We true conservatives have met the RINO, and he is Trump.

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No one who calls themselves a "true conservative" would ever speak, write, type, or even think the phrase: "I will be voting for Kamala".

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Sep 25·edited Sep 25

Hey, Joe. I am voting, at least partly, on policy. Trump's plans to tax all imports at 20% would likely destroy my business. Since we sell goods made in Europe (where the cost of production is no less than in the USA), such tariffs would make us non-competitive with our USA-made competitors. That said, no true conservative would ever vote for any candidate, Democrat or Republican, who would implement such inflationary tariffs, especially on our European allies. But then, Trump does not think we need European allies, does he?

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Seems like you're in a hard spot... I hope things work out OK for you.

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Have you not noticed all the chaos and suffering in our country and around the world since Biden/Harris took over? You are OK with hyperinflation, open borders, wars in Europe (which you claim to care for) and the Middle East, tens of thousands of lives lost and destroyed there, the gutting of our military (a 40,000 plus recruitment shortfall), the enriching of the world's premier terrorist state, Iran, and their alliance with the godless Chinese, Russians, and North Koreans? Are you so unaware of the genuine suffering in our own country where retirees are making tough choices between food and medicine and middle class families are struggling to keep from joining the poor? You would vote for the vote for the very one who welcomed in the criminal gangs thar have robbed, raped and killed our precious citizens like Laken Riley? And now you say you are going to vote for more of this? At the very least, don't vote at all.

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Sep 25·edited Sep 25

Try laying off FOX News for a week or two. If you really think there would have been no inflation (which happened in every country in the world) after a pandemic that crippled supply chains, you need to go back to Econ 101. If you think that just because Russia did not invade Ukraine while Trump was president that it would not have happened after you are kidding yourself. Putin knows that Trump would let him take any country in Europe that he wants because, you know, it's America First and NATO does not pay its fair share. And terrorists would not have attacked Israel? Come on, be serious. Maybe my dog would not have died if Trump had won. As I said, 1/6 and tariffs are all the reasons (but you can add in many more) I need to do all I can, with my one GA vote, to keep Trump from ever being president again. Hopefully, in 2028 the Republican Party can return to sanity.

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Facts are, none of these things DID occur during Trump's time as president. Furthermore, stating that you are voting for the administration that caused many of our current problems like 20% inflation, high interest rates, and allowing the flow of phenethyl , human trafficking, and promoting criminal gangs to come our country goes far beyond Trump hating. You are admitting that you are not only OK with all that, you are voting for more of the same and a weaking of our republic through the election of America hating socialists.

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Sep 25·edited Sep 25

Perhaps you do not understand cause and effect. The fact that something does or does not happen while a particular POTUS is in office does not necessarily mean that it would or would not have happened had that person had or had not been POTUS. So, if Biden caused the 20% inflation in the USA, who caused it in every other major economy in the industrialized world? Perhaps the pandemic and the resulting supply chain crisis had something to do with it, exacerbated by paying people not to work (meaning: produce goods and services), and thus creating a supply and demand imbalance? By the way, the US economy is now the strongest in the world. As for high interest rates, they really don't bother me, as I make more on my treasuries, and actually they are at historical norms. My first home mortgage was 10%, and that was during the Reagan administration. As for the flow of "phenethyl (sic)," I don't do illegal drugs, and figure that that those who do are risking killing themselves -- natural selection, perhaps. As for immigration, I think it should only be legal, but I think it should be easier for people to legally immigrate -- as I do not want to lose my yard crew.

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Well, I have always said the country will have to crash and burn before some people wake up. Guess you are going to need the crash and burn.

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Take heart, Kathy. The country does not have to crash and burn. Only Trump and Trumpism need to crash and burn. Once that happens, a principled and truly conservative Republican Party can rise from the ashes.

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Maybe you've forgotten just why Trump and Trumpism rose like it did? Because he was the first Republican since Ronald Reagan to show that he had the guts, balls and spine to stand up and push back against the Left and the media (but, I repeat myself). Just about every GOP politician since George HW Bush has repeatedly stabbed the party base in the back, time and time again, telling us what we want to hear just to get elected... then promptly throwing it all out the window the second they take office. Paul Ryan was a perfect example of that. Time and time again, they were loathe to be in power, but all too happy to accept the position of "in office, but not the party in power". And just so long as they didn't rock the boat too much, they got invited to the best parties and let in on all the sweetheart deals to enrich themselves. And so it continues today.

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So, what is your beef with Paul Ryan? Seemed to be a true fiscal conservative to me. But, I know, Trumpers like $8T deficits.

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That is what I think is so funny. You completely fail to grasp that the old "principled and truly conservative Republican Party" is why we are here in the first place. Thus, you must crash and burn before you see it.

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Sep 25·edited Sep 25

So, you are telling me that you do not want a principled and truly conservative Republican Party? That explains a lot. Must make the Trump worship easier to justify to yourself.

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Sep 24·edited Sep 24

Once they really start running, Harris' negative ads against Trump will be devastating. Moreover, Democrats being more excited about their candidate will mean a much more effective ground game. And finally, Harris has more $. What I am less certain about is whether Trump and Vance will keep shooting themselves in the head, but that seems likely as well.

When all is said and done, I don't think it will even be close.

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Those ads have been running Ad hominem. To me they seem shallow and ineffective. Here's an example, "Trump bad, Harris la de da, la de da".

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Really?

Have the ads that you have seen featured actual footage of the January 6th riot, juxtaposed against Trump honoring and promising to pardon the rioters at his rallies?

Have they featured a counter showing the rising number of Covid deaths, juxtaposed against Trump's reassurances that the disease would simply go away? Did any feature Herman Cain (a former GOP candidate for President whom many Republicans might remember), explaining how he answered Trump's call for his supporters to attend rallies in the middle of the pandemic, packed tightly together and without masks; and how Cain died from Covid shortly thereafter? Have they featured Trump saying incredibly (and obviously) stupid stuff during his Covid briefings?

Have the ads that you've seen featured current Trump supporters like Lindsey Graham, Marco Rubio and many, many others saying the terrible things they said about him before he got the nomination in 2016? Have you seen multiple former members of his administration trashing him as they make the case for why Trump is patently unfit to be President?

Have the ads that you've seen featured clips of a wild-eyed Trump at the last debate, arguing the completely debunked claim that immigrants are eating people's pets in Ohio; or clips like this one (which if you're a Fox News viewer, you've probably never seen) where Trump embarrassed us on the world stage?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-xeCg0hCFiA

If you have already seen all this, then Harris' people are screwing up because the most effective attacks should have been held back until that point when they would have the greatest impact. (Indeed, had Republicans held back with their attacks on the President's age, Biden might still be in the race.) People who do not normally pay much attention to politics only really begin doing so in the final couple of weeks. They won't remember much about policy. Rather, these voters are more likely to simply be deciding which of the two candidates they like as a person. This is what makes negative ads, properly timed, so utterly devastating.

Harris' closing argument will be that Trump is a danger to democracy. Actual video footage of January 6th almost makes that case without saying a word. If you have yet to see EXTENSIVE footage from January 6th, neatly packaged in a Harris attack ad, then sister, you ain't seen nuthin' yet.

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Aside from the fact that the belief that democrats are a serious threat to the country is true, otherwise the entire article confirms my assertion that far too many people are emotional voters. Facts can't get through their feelings.

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Again I say "Jesus take the Wheel".

I just wish it was over.

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You said it perfectly!

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The telling thing about this election is if either party had run a decent candidate, we wouldn't be having these discussions about the election and Nate Silver's Substack would be boring as hell, unless he started talking about sports and sabermetrics.

That's how awful they both are.

The progs are in their "How could Nixon have won I don't know anyone who voted for him" bubble, and MAGA is LALALALAICANTHEARYOULALALALA

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Well, the good news. It may fall back into Republicans that the Senate, but as Erick always says, 'never underestimate the ability of Republicans to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.' :(. There are two things going on (ok, one is going on, and the other stopped) that I find fascinating. Netanyahu got back from the U.S. With his last meeting being with Harris, he promptly went out and assassinated three key leaders of Hezbaloh, with one blast happening in Iran (that could be seen as an act of war). And we have all seen the aggressive actions taken on the Northern Border with Lebanon in the last week. So why now? 1). He has concluded that Harris very well may win, and that will change the dynamics of Israel's relationship with the U.S. 2). He knows that now is the time to strike because the Democrat's response has to be muted at the risk of losing Jewish support at a critical time in the election cycle. 3). By stepping up attacks, he is forcing both parties in this country to show their cards 'now'. 4). All of the above? And the other 'non-action' that dominated the entire spring. Where are the campus protests? Are they still out there? If not - why not? What happened? This dominated the news for three months! If so, why isn't it being covered, at least by conservative news outlets? Did all of the professors involved resign? Did all of the angry students graduate? This makes no sense unless you conclude that this was a highly organized effort in the first place that had the ability to start up and keep it going but also the ability to shut it down... It's going to be an interesting last six weeks...

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At this point I believe Israel stands alone which is a travesty. Thank you Biden/Harris

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Protests are still going on - Google “UNC Chapel Hill ROTC building vandalized” and you will see what happened just last week. But the MSM is not covering these protests bc it hurts Kamala and the Dems. I live in NC, went to UNC but heard NOTHING about this on our local news - my nephew in England asked me about it! Part of that is the Mark Robinson story here is sucking up the air time but for the MSM not to mention it at all…disgusting!

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I cannot wait for this election cycle to be over. I am tired of the election commercials which tell half truths or outright lies , from both side. I am especially tired of the endless "election coverage" by the MSM which is sucking up all of the airtime that could be covering world news. But, day two, after the election, the MSM will start contemplating how the 2024 election will affect the 2028 midterms. Election coverage is now a never ending reality show just like any of the Real Housewives of....

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My take is a little more optimistic. Frankly what I am reading is contrary to popular opinion; there are more undecideds out there than there were before. Both candidates are not likable. Those leaning toward Harris would like to hear something more solid about her policies and are waiting for Trump to step on the proverbial rake. But if history is any guide, undecideds usually break toward the challenger particularly when things are not going well in the nation.

In my mind, Trump should follow the line he has been doing, saying you may not like me but if you like my policies vote for me. And I don’t put much stock in the ground game anymore. Not sure it brings in voters the way it use to. Again, from what I am hearing, Trump’s pursuing a different strategy to reach voters who - like in 2016 - don’t vote often or have never voted. They aren’t contacted by knocking on doors.

The last thing I would do if I were the Trump campaign is to start reaching out to Democrats telling them to save your party you need rid yourself of the wokes. And by defeating Harris and Waltz this is your chance. Otherwise you are going to go further and further down the Progressive rabbit hole and never get out.

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Thank you for at least a little optimism!

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I honestly don’t think Trump will win. He’s done very little to cater to the Independents who he will need to win. He’s all about his base and no treble. (Song joke) He is who he is. Those who do not like him will sit it out. He is not doing anything to draw those undecided voters over to him. While I do not like the policies on the Left, I do not hate people. Hate is bad for the heart. I dislike their stances and their policies, but I do not care for the Republican Party and the way they are acting either. Trump is a cult of personality. He and his base have taken over the Republican Party for now. What happens in the future will be up to the Republican voters waking up that this type of behavior, lies of stolen elections, etc, cannot be the norm. Or, they stay the course, never learn, and attempt to try and elect someone else who is Trump part two. Either way, the party has abandoned principles. Our debt as a nation is out of control, and as Erick said, republican does NOT mean Conservative. Could not be further from the truth. WE are electing these people who are taking the country in the wrong direction. I will say it again, someone like Glenn Youngkin or Brian Kemp should be at the top of the Republican ticket. Only time will tell. As a side note, those who want to say the world and the USA comes to an end IF Donald Trump does not get in, is silly talk. GOD is in control, not Trump.

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Couldn't agree more, especially about the lack of any meaningful discussion of the national debt since the Republicans went populist.

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Which side would you rather have in power: The one that's a "threat to abortion and trans rights", or the one that's a "threat to religious practices, families, and [a] way of life"?

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All this talk of a ground game. That would matter if they were able to do so.

As I mentioned before. I’ve talk to many campaign workers who go into neighborhoods. Aka the “ground game”.

They won’t go into dem strongholds because it is a very real danger they will be beaten shot or mugged.

However. Their may not be a ground game physically but I can tell you there is a social media presence beyond anything the Dems have.

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Most other Republican candidates would be running away with this thing and the Dems might not have had to throw Biden under the bus since they knew it was gonna be a loss either way. But there’s Trump. I would imagine most Democrats would hate whoever the Republicans put up but the independents might be more willing to toss their hat in the ring if not for him. Not saying catering to independents is the answer but this country is truly divided.

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Organization is on Kamala’s side. Events are on Trump’s side. Pennsylvania is going to live up to its name: the Keystone State.

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It will be interesting if Trump wins and the Democrats complain that it was stolen... Will the media concur? of course, the last four years will be blotted from their memory.

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If Trump wins, watch the Democrats call for faithless electors, hit every state with voter suppression lawsuits, then when that fails, turn to organized violence. But the media won’t call it insurrection.

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