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This is a sobering piece. We have been in Honolulu since Feb 24, having come here to help our daughter, her husband who is a Special Operations officer and our three grandkids prepare for their next move to Australia where they will be stationed in Canberra. They don’t live on post but up in one of the neighborhoods overlooking Pearl Harbor, and pretty much the week after we began to be concerned about crowds of tourists, given that Hawaii is the gateway to and from Asia to the East and the Western front door of the US. Here you realize very quickly that basic supplies can disappear fast and none will be coming in on a regular basis after a point. Not everyone can leave but our son in law has ordered us all off the island and back to the mainland where health care, a reasonable supply chain and isolation on our farm in northeast Georgia are available to us. So we are leaving tomorrow and will be home Tuesday morning and happy to be back. Preparation is key and denial of the potential for hardship is foolish. Healthy at the moment a hoping to stay that way.

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Based on the WP simulation, the best strategy is probably to maximum social distancing along with quarantines of regions with high infection rates, as they are not mutually exclusive. China stopped its exponential rise with its quarantine at around 80K patients - and the simulation shows similar results. South Korea stopped its exponential rise by large scale testing allowing separation of infected patients, which is like quarantining. A combination of these strategies is what is most likely to lower the peak to its minimal level.

One area of disagreement I have with Erick is that both Italy and the US have an average death age of 81 years (as of about a week ago) and that is the main risk age for the virus. Corona is certainly not a disease that infects only the elderly, but it is far more severe for elderly patients and those with weakened immune systems. That is why a large number of US deaths are from a single place, a Washington-state nursing home, and a large percentage of both staff and patients become infected.

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One other point that differs from Erick. These are Dr. Fauci's comments from the White House briefing on March 13: "I just want to make one note: In South Korea, I want to repeat, only 4 percent of the tests were positive. That means 96 percent of the people had a different respiratory disease because we’re in the middle of flu season, cold season, and all of the other respiratory diseases that we get every day. In LabCorp and Quest’s early data [US tests}, they’re running about 1 to 2 percent positive. That means that we have a lot more other respiratory disease out there besides the coronavirus. And that’s why the screening is critical. But even with the screening, we’re going to low — run what we think are very low rates."

Testing everybody would be a great strategy. The problem is that it is impossible to get that many complex test kits instantly. That is why screening is important to limit those who are tested to those most likely to have the Corona Virus. If you have flu/cold symptoms and you care at all about possibly killing an innocent person, the please practice self isolation.

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Thanks for keeping us informed. One question - when looking at what is going on in Italy (and I am no way surprised China likely lied), but any insights on the condition of their medical “system” to deal with this (when so dependent on the government)? I would guess UK and maybe France would be in the same boat? Always appreciate your insights!

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Thanks Erick!

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From the mouths of two or more witnesses....This is in line with what my employer (US Army) is telling us.

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It really is amazing how many people out there are pushing bad information.

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Thank you for this information, Erick. The Washington Post resource is especially helpful.

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