Joe Biden is deciding within the next week or two whether he will run for reelection. The 80-year-old would be the oldest sitting President seeking reelection under the backdrop of a worsening domestic economic picture and an ever-complicating foreign policy landscape. While there are a multitude of potential Republican challengers, the matchup could be an 82-year-old Biden vs a 44-year-old DeSantis. I like those odds. Here’s what I think happens:
Appreciate the perspective...interesting that you state there is "good" economic news despite the fact that real disposable income fell more than $1 TRILLION in 2022...the second largest percentage drop EVER, behind only 1932, the worst year of the Great Depression. A worsening domestic econonmic picture harldly sums it up! Biden in no condition to handle any of it...The question is, will the pain be bad enough that his low information voters will bail on him??? Not if welfare benefits continue to be the equivalent of $80K/year employment!!!
There are still a lot of low information voters out there living on the government teat. We see it in the underemployment numbers. The fed is literally "burning cash" each week as they shrink money supply. Let's hope the House stays firm on cuts, the fed keeps shrinking money supply, and a mild recession hits with enough time left to impact their wallets.
Looking 21 months ahead in any crystal ball is a crap shoot at best. But, early on, it seems that there's a strong conservative bench of candidates. And that's a great place to start from.
I like Trump, a lot, and I proudly wear my MAGA hat. And if he is the candidate, then I will support him. BUT.....we have to remember that it's a technical and emotional path to the White House, and that the Dems have become adept at working all of the levers in elections. The path to the White House relies on what Rush called the "low information voters".
It's no longer about competence (Biden taught us that).
It's no longer about just money. Obama taught us that you could use social media to raise money. Trump followed and took it to a new level. The cost of a win is now approaching $1bil. I assume that both sides of the ballot will cost $1bil++.
Biden taught us you could hide in your basement and still win by exploiting the sloppy pandemic voting rules. Pennsylvania followed up in the midterms and confirmed the approach. This is now a new way of campaigning and winning. Lesson learned. We may not like all of the ballot harvesting and micro targeting, but that's the playbook today.
The stolen election approach was tested in the midterms and did not win. So, we need to drop it from the playbook.
The name of the game is to predict what the top 3 hot topics will be next summer and be ready to show we have the answers that appeal to the low information voters. It's still too early to know what those hot topics will be for sure. Yes economy. Yes, law enforcement. Yes, foreign affairs. Yes education. Yes, even social justice. But maybe even nuclear war and its impacts. We might not know until the very end of May'24.
On June 1, 2024, there may be 10 top issues, but public speakers know that debate points need to be limited to 3. On June 1st there will be no time to develop those programs, so we need to develop all 10 to be ready. And that costs a lot of money. On June 1, 2024, we need to go all in on what those top 3 issues are.
Forums like this, and Erick's August event, help me learn and participate in the debate.
I am already participating in "24 by watching, commenting, and learning from y'all.
"The 80-year-old would be the oldest sitting President seeking reelection under the backdrop of a worsening domestic economic picture and an ever-complicating foreign policy landscape. "
I don't think the 80-year-old is concerned about a fantabulously marvelous economy and the rockin' foreign policy he is implementing. Shoot, he even thinks the border is fine. No issues down there. This is someone that is not connected to reality. Maybe he is the Progressive poster boy for the 'Our Policies are GREAT!" no reason to assess if the outcomes are good or not. Why would they not be GREAT! If something is going wrong, which its not, it is the Republicans and not the policy.
Putin will be in office longer than Biden. We provoked the Ukraine conflict starting with the Maidan Coup in 2014. Check out "Ukraine on Fire" by Oliver Stone. Russia will win this--we need to get peace negotiations back on--like last April when there was almost an agreement--but we put the kibosh on it, and had Boris Johnson fly to Kiev to tell Zelinskyy--"NO peace deal. We want to take Russia out via proxy." (in so many words)
Would we tolerate Mexico going into a military alliance with Russia--with the ultimate result being placement of Nukes south of the Rio Grande. C'mon man! Let's stop being delusional and believing we in the West are so righteous and virtuous, and bragging that WE are spreading "Rules-based democracy!" LOL! We are spreading WOKE nonsense and Climate alarmism now.
I cannot argue with this, but it is a shame, actually, because Pompeo has a bigger world profile and foreign relations chops, which seem necessary given the job of POTUS. If conservative hosts like Erickson would give him some good coverage, he could have the same big national profile.
This boggles my mind. I’m 68 and sometimes need a nap to get through the day. I know there are 80 year old people who are sharp and capable but Biden doesn’t fit that category and we have seen that for ourselves. I suspect those people who urge him to run again are the ones who are running this country and they want to continue doing so.
Appreciate the perspective...interesting that you state there is "good" economic news despite the fact that real disposable income fell more than $1 TRILLION in 2022...the second largest percentage drop EVER, behind only 1932, the worst year of the Great Depression. A worsening domestic econonmic picture harldly sums it up! Biden in no condition to handle any of it...The question is, will the pain be bad enough that his low information voters will bail on him??? Not if welfare benefits continue to be the equivalent of $80K/year employment!!!
There are still a lot of low information voters out there living on the government teat. We see it in the underemployment numbers. The fed is literally "burning cash" each week as they shrink money supply. Let's hope the House stays firm on cuts, the fed keeps shrinking money supply, and a mild recession hits with enough time left to impact their wallets.
So goes Brandon, so goes the '24 strategy.
Cheers
Looking 21 months ahead in any crystal ball is a crap shoot at best. But, early on, it seems that there's a strong conservative bench of candidates. And that's a great place to start from.
I like Trump, a lot, and I proudly wear my MAGA hat. And if he is the candidate, then I will support him. BUT.....we have to remember that it's a technical and emotional path to the White House, and that the Dems have become adept at working all of the levers in elections. The path to the White House relies on what Rush called the "low information voters".
It's no longer about competence (Biden taught us that).
It's no longer about just money. Obama taught us that you could use social media to raise money. Trump followed and took it to a new level. The cost of a win is now approaching $1bil. I assume that both sides of the ballot will cost $1bil++.
Biden taught us you could hide in your basement and still win by exploiting the sloppy pandemic voting rules. Pennsylvania followed up in the midterms and confirmed the approach. This is now a new way of campaigning and winning. Lesson learned. We may not like all of the ballot harvesting and micro targeting, but that's the playbook today.
The stolen election approach was tested in the midterms and did not win. So, we need to drop it from the playbook.
The name of the game is to predict what the top 3 hot topics will be next summer and be ready to show we have the answers that appeal to the low information voters. It's still too early to know what those hot topics will be for sure. Yes economy. Yes, law enforcement. Yes, foreign affairs. Yes education. Yes, even social justice. But maybe even nuclear war and its impacts. We might not know until the very end of May'24.
On June 1, 2024, there may be 10 top issues, but public speakers know that debate points need to be limited to 3. On June 1st there will be no time to develop those programs, so we need to develop all 10 to be ready. And that costs a lot of money. On June 1, 2024, we need to go all in on what those top 3 issues are.
Forums like this, and Erick's August event, help me learn and participate in the debate.
I am already participating in "24 by watching, commenting, and learning from y'all.
Cheers
You never seem to mention Pompeo, who I think has a better resume than any other candidate known to me. May I ask why? Thank you for all you do.
Grace
"The 80-year-old would be the oldest sitting President seeking reelection under the backdrop of a worsening domestic economic picture and an ever-complicating foreign policy landscape. "
I don't think the 80-year-old is concerned about a fantabulously marvelous economy and the rockin' foreign policy he is implementing. Shoot, he even thinks the border is fine. No issues down there. This is someone that is not connected to reality. Maybe he is the Progressive poster boy for the 'Our Policies are GREAT!" no reason to assess if the outcomes are good or not. Why would they not be GREAT! If something is going wrong, which its not, it is the Republicans and not the policy.
Putin will be in office longer than Biden. We provoked the Ukraine conflict starting with the Maidan Coup in 2014. Check out "Ukraine on Fire" by Oliver Stone. Russia will win this--we need to get peace negotiations back on--like last April when there was almost an agreement--but we put the kibosh on it, and had Boris Johnson fly to Kiev to tell Zelinskyy--"NO peace deal. We want to take Russia out via proxy." (in so many words)
Would we tolerate Mexico going into a military alliance with Russia--with the ultimate result being placement of Nukes south of the Rio Grande. C'mon man! Let's stop being delusional and believing we in the West are so righteous and virtuous, and bragging that WE are spreading "Rules-based democracy!" LOL! We are spreading WOKE nonsense and Climate alarmism now.
I’m in for Desantis and want someone that can go eight years two full terms without interruption I like Trump but it’s time to move on
Pompeo could absolutely do that.
He could but Desantis has a bigger profile nationally Pompeo would be a second choice for me
I cannot argue with this, but it is a shame, actually, because Pompeo has a bigger world profile and foreign relations chops, which seem necessary given the job of POTUS. If conservative hosts like Erickson would give him some good coverage, he could have the same big national profile.
This boggles my mind. I’m 68 and sometimes need a nap to get through the day. I know there are 80 year old people who are sharp and capable but Biden doesn’t fit that category and we have seen that for ourselves. I suspect those people who urge him to run again are the ones who are running this country and they want to continue doing so.
Could we be that lucky:)