One bit of housekeeping and to answer a question I’ve gotten a ton since Friday, the ratings are for all radio, not just talk, so yeah I’m beating music too with my radio show. Thanks again for making that happen.
Now on to the important issue.
I say “events change things” constantly. After “people are stupid,” it may be the thing I say most on radio. It is true. Democrats have been confident that they could mitigate some of the midterm swing to the GOP by focusing on tying the GOP to January 6th.
But Afghanistan still reigns supreme in the news cycle and it is turning into a bigger mess. When a news story stays the same for two weeks and in those two weeks it does not show signs of optimism and in those two weeks the press tries to find more comfortable framing for Democrats and has to pivot back to the bad news, it is really bad for Democrats.
Just how bad? The best that Meet the Press’s daily morning email could offer is that there is a lot of time between now and the election. Yep. Events can change things. But, right now, events are changing things for the worse for Biden.
As southern states are peaking on the Delta variant, a bunch of blue states are going to start seeing Delta variant surges. Hot weather in the south that pushes people inside will see cold weather in the north push people inside. Hopefully, vaccination rates will surge. But that could cause problems.
The southern border is still swamped with people and it shows no signs of getting better.
The economy is still sputtering and inflation is surging more than the feds expected.
And then there is Afghanistan.
Be sure to check out these segments from my radio show:
A history of our involvement in Afghanistan and how Biden got it wrong
The Democrats’ spin machine can’t spin hard enough about Afghanistan
I’m way more skeptical of polling than I used to be, but the patterns across all polls is remarkably consistent. Support for Biden is cratering. The most damning bit of data I have seen is this.
Among all voters, 47% want Democrats to stay in charge; 46% want a Republican-controlled Congress.
That’s an NBC poll. NBC polling leans Democrat. Polls of “all voters” lean Democrat. And the GOP is only one point behind in a poll that alreadly leans Democrat with a margin of error greater than 1%. That means, in the real world, a majority of voters want the GOP in charge of Congress. That’s without redistricting, etc.
Biden and the Democrats are cratering everywhere, which is why you don’t see a cavalcade of Democrats rushing out to defend Biden. In fact, the Democrats are internally split even over infrastructure, which was supposed to be Biden’s big win. This not only suggests the GOP will take back the House, but will take the Senate too. That then undercuts pressure to end the filibuster.
To be sure, events can change things, but this Afghan situation will be exacerbated when the trapped Americans get home and start telling their stories and people head into Thanksgiving and Christmas paying way more for holiday meals and presents than they did last year.
This is shaping up to be terrible for the Democrats and will give the GOP an opportunity to learn no lessons from 2020.
On a side note, my understanding is that President Carter’s health is not good. Though I am not a fan of his presidency, his post-presidential work stands in stark contrast to several of his successors in office. Please keep him in your prayers.
Erick, PLEASE investigate the "rumor" in Washington THAT insiders KNEW the collapse would happen, AND they decided its better to go ahead and get it over with NOW instead of it happening closer to the 2022 midterms. We know the memory of many voters isn't good. God help this country.
I am very disappointed in how this unfurled.
I was on a call with an Afghan leftist activist some weeks ago and he was begging for the US military to stay. Or, if they did not stay, at least be replaced from troops from another country. For a leftist to ask an occupying power to stay is not a small thing.
However, this narrative did not fit our leftist anti-war and anti-imperialist agenda, so we swept it under the rug. I was very disappointed. I understand the anti-war and anti-imperialist perspectives on this issue, but Afghanistan is a different case. We were not there to occupy Afghanistan (it has nothing for us) and anyone who knows Afghanistan knew how weak, afraid, fragile, and yet untrained Afghan national forces were.
The Taliban swept through the country practically unopposed.
I found it very strange that Biden would continue the promise to withdraw from Afghanistan even though it was a horrible idea. If he thought he would win points for bringing our men and women in uniform home, he was very wrong. Any prestige he may have won at home or abroad was wiped away in just a few days.