Events Change Things

One bit of housekeeping and to answer a question I’ve gotten a ton since Friday, the ratings are for all radio, not just talk, so yeah I’m beating music too with my radio show. Thanks again for making that happen.

Now on to the important issue.

I say “events change things” constantly. After “people are stupid,” it may be the thing I say most on radio. It is true. Democrats have been confident that they could mitigate some of the midterm swing to the GOP by focusing on tying the GOP to January 6th.

But Afghanistan still reigns supreme in the news cycle and it is turning into a bigger mess. When a news story stays the same for two weeks and in those two weeks it does not show signs of optimism and in those two weeks the press tries to find more comfortable framing for Democrats and has to pivot back to the bad news, it is really bad for Democrats.

Just how bad? The best that Meet the Press’s daily morning email could offer is that there is a lot of time between now and the election. Yep. Events can change things. But, right now, events are changing things for the worse for Biden.

As southern states are peaking on the Delta variant, a bunch of blue states are going to start seeing Delta variant surges. Hot weather in the south that pushes people inside will see cold weather in the north push people inside. Hopefully, vaccination rates will surge. But that could cause problems.

The southern border is still swamped with people and it shows no signs of getting better.

The economy is still sputtering and inflation is surging more than the feds expected.

And then there is Afghanistan.

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Be sure to check out these segments from my radio show:

• A history of our involvement in Afghanistan and how Biden got it wrong

• The Democrats’ spin machine can’t spin hard enough about Afghanistan

• The press turns on Joe Biden

• The experts have gotten so much wrong

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I’m way more skeptical of polling than I used to be, but the patterns across all polls is remarkably consistent. Support for Biden is cratering. The most damning bit of data I have seen is this.

Among all voters, 47% want Democrats to stay in charge; 46% want a Republican-controlled Congress.

That’s an NBC poll. NBC polling leans Democrat. Polls of “all voters” lean Democrat. And the GOP is only one point behind in a poll that alreadly leans Democrat with a margin of error greater than 1%. That means, in the real world, a majority of voters want the GOP in charge of Congress. That’s without redistricting, etc.

Biden and the Democrats are cratering everywhere, which is why you don’t see a cavalcade of Democrats rushing out to defend Biden. In fact, the Democrats are internally split even over infrastructure, which was supposed to be Biden’s big win. This not only suggests the GOP will take back the House, but will take the Senate too. That then undercuts pressure to end the filibuster.

To be sure, events can change things, but this Afghan situation will be exacerbated when the trapped Americans get home and start telling their stories and people head into Thanksgiving and Christmas paying way more for holiday meals and presents than they did last year.

This is shaping up to be terrible for the Democrats and will give the GOP an opportunity to learn no lessons from 2020.

On a side note, my understanding is that President Carter’s health is not good. Though I am not a fan of his presidency, his post-presidential work stands in stark contrast to several of his successors in office. Please keep him in your prayers.