Here is a transcript of my monologue about the Iowa Caucuses. The Iowa caucuses happen in less than 96 hours. If you believe the polling, and most of you don't, I'm in the minority. I tend to think the polling, when you take the polling average, at least not the individual polls, but the polling average, you get a pretty good sense of where the race is and it's a dominant Trump lead. I said on Twitter a while back that I thought Ron DeSantis could win the caucuses. I expect to be humiliated on Caucus day because Donald Trump should win. Now, if you listen to the various campaigns, they will tell you why they think they're going to win, particularly the DeSantis campaign, and he does make a lot of sense because DeSantis supporters, and again, look at the average of polls, not the polls themselves. The average kind of weeds out the bad polling, the DeSantis supporters, the polling averages show are more engaged.
It's negative ten degrees Fahrenheit this morning in SE Iowa. Our high temperature today will likely be negative two or so. We have 17 inches plus on the ground high winds have drifted the Friday storm's powder considerably. It looks like 1978 out there. I'm planning on caucusing tonight for RDS.
If the car, truck, 4-wheeler starts, and a delegate doesn’t have to drive a long distance out in the country, the motivated delegates show up. Organization matters more than charisma. But...if the weather is terrible Monday night, maybe precincts in the cities and larger towns determine it all.
It's predicted to be -10F by caucus time, 7pm. Any wind will be wicked at that temperature. The roads are a real problem in the rural areas. Towing bans which were active last evening have been lifted, but that doesn't mean the tow will be able to get to you. Our area crews performed exceptionally well with staying ahead of the storm, some municipalities in the area did not. Today will be a long cold day for the road crews.
I don't get this? Biden was a dead man walking until South Carolina.
Iowa and New Hampshire give delegates to candidates based on their share of the vote.
If your statement is correct then why have a primary beyond Iowa? I know no one is playing for a brokered conversation but if Trump is barely the nominee then is that possible?
I’ll happily and proudly vote for DeSantis or Haley next November. Either would win I think and be a good President. I can’t vote for Trump again, and certainly not Biden. Maybe the “No Labels” crowd will have a sane candidate so I can at least vote.
When it gets that cold, I believe a lot of people, especially on farms and in small communities will stay home. Safer than being out, especially at night.
So did you write this so you could be on the record to prove in the future you predicted one of three people could actually win this primary? I think even we know that. I am DeSantis supporter in it for the long haul. I’m realistic but the one certainty is that I will not fall on the sword for the GOP if Trump is the nominee.
Won’t vote for Nikki either. She completely showed us who she is when she rolled her eyes at DeSantis mentioning his military service. Not a good look for her.
Erick, I don't know who transcribed this, but the grammar and use of the wrong word in places is terrible. Agree with most of what you're saying, but it doesn't look like this was even proofread.
So little said about Vivek. He appears to be campaigning harder than anyone. True, he canceled morning events last Tuesday because he said he just couldn't get to the venues. But I understand he resumed later that day. I'm looking forward to hearing your comments if Vivek surprises with a strong turnout. I like him. He seems to be head and shoulders smarter than anyone else in the race and, man, would it be refreshing to have a smart-as-hell president. Ron D has the proven experience I want. But, if Trump wins the nomination, he'll have my vote assuming Biden is the nominee on the other side. I'm no fan of Nikki and don't know anyone that likes her. Her "surging" sounds like media hype or... something else.
OK, wow... Eric, what was written above had to be from voice recorder and not hand-typed. Lots of errors making a lot of the sentences incomprehensible. I was able to follow along (barely) but, geez, a little proof-reading, if you don't mind. ;-)
Seriously, I hope DeSantis' team is strong. I like Haley, but I think DeSantis makes a better candidate and I surely don't want Trump again. Fresh blood with a strong record of leadership running a large scale government over a lame-duck, octogenarian, blow-hard gets my vote every time!
It's negative ten degrees Fahrenheit this morning in SE Iowa. Our high temperature today will likely be negative two or so. We have 17 inches plus on the ground high winds have drifted the Friday storm's powder considerably. It looks like 1978 out there. I'm planning on caucusing tonight for RDS.
The biggest loser here is voice-to-text :)
That was a tough slog to get through. Some proofreading and selective editing would've been welcome.
If the car, truck, 4-wheeler starts, and a delegate doesn’t have to drive a long distance out in the country, the motivated delegates show up. Organization matters more than charisma. But...if the weather is terrible Monday night, maybe precincts in the cities and larger towns determine it all.
It's predicted to be -10F by caucus time, 7pm. Any wind will be wicked at that temperature. The roads are a real problem in the rural areas. Towing bans which were active last evening have been lifted, but that doesn't mean the tow will be able to get to you. Our area crews performed exceptionally well with staying ahead of the storm, some municipalities in the area did not. Today will be a long cold day for the road crews.
if Trump wins Iowa Trump's the nominee...
I don't get this? Biden was a dead man walking until South Carolina.
Iowa and New Hampshire give delegates to candidates based on their share of the vote.
If your statement is correct then why have a primary beyond Iowa? I know no one is playing for a brokered conversation but if Trump is barely the nominee then is that possible?
Vegas Odds...
Candidate Odds Implied Probability
Donald Trump -1600 94.1%
Ron Desantis +3000 3.3%
Nikki Haley +3800 2.6%
negative (-) odds tell you what you have to bet on the favorite to win $100, positive (+) odds tell you how much you'll win for every $100 you wager.
So for a $1,600 bet on Trump you win $100.
A $100 bet on Desantis gets you $3,000.
Proofreading is a lost art...
Hard to read grammar-wise, Erick. Did your proof-reader take the day off?
I’ll happily and proudly vote for DeSantis or Haley next November. Either would win I think and be a good President. I can’t vote for Trump again, and certainly not Biden. Maybe the “No Labels” crowd will have a sane candidate so I can at least vote.
How does anyone access the damn podcasts? I try for 30 minutes every night
When it gets that cold, I believe a lot of people, especially on farms and in small communities will stay home. Safer than being out, especially at night.
So did you write this so you could be on the record to prove in the future you predicted one of three people could actually win this primary? I think even we know that. I am DeSantis supporter in it for the long haul. I’m realistic but the one certainty is that I will not fall on the sword for the GOP if Trump is the nominee.
Will Not Vote For Him.
Won’t vote for Nikki either. She completely showed us who she is when she rolled her eyes at DeSantis mentioning his military service. Not a good look for her.
Erick, I don't know who transcribed this, but the grammar and use of the wrong word in places is terrible. Agree with most of what you're saying, but it doesn't look like this was even proofread.
I've tried for months to get him to hire me as his proofreader!
So little said about Vivek. He appears to be campaigning harder than anyone. True, he canceled morning events last Tuesday because he said he just couldn't get to the venues. But I understand he resumed later that day. I'm looking forward to hearing your comments if Vivek surprises with a strong turnout. I like him. He seems to be head and shoulders smarter than anyone else in the race and, man, would it be refreshing to have a smart-as-hell president. Ron D has the proven experience I want. But, if Trump wins the nomination, he'll have my vote assuming Biden is the nominee on the other side. I'm no fan of Nikki and don't know anyone that likes her. Her "surging" sounds like media hype or... something else.
Erick can't stand Vivek and, most of the time, pretends he doesn't exist. I would gladly vote for DeSantis, but Vivek is my guy.
Vivek would be the winning dark horse in a sane society.
OK, wow... Eric, what was written above had to be from voice recorder and not hand-typed. Lots of errors making a lot of the sentences incomprehensible. I was able to follow along (barely) but, geez, a little proof-reading, if you don't mind. ;-)
Seriously, I hope DeSantis' team is strong. I like Haley, but I think DeSantis makes a better candidate and I surely don't want Trump again. Fresh blood with a strong record of leadership running a large scale government over a lame-duck, octogenarian, blow-hard gets my vote every time!
I agree 100%.
I got depressed listening to this.