I’m a big believer in following polling trends and polling averages. The individual poll numbers are meaningless, but the trends can tell us much. When polls head in a direction, we may not know the actual measure, but we know the way the wind is blowing. The polling average helps us see the direction.
This kind of speculation misses the mark entirely. On the one hand, you write that "13% of the GOP really did vote Democrat in 2022"; on the other hand, your supposition conflates to "if 13% of the GOP will never vote for him." There may have been many who turned against Trump in 2020 who now see the error of their ways. There is no way that same 13% can feel satisfied they did the right thing in voting for Biden, so they can't be counted as "never-Trump" or even "never-again Trump." Eight short years after "You won't have Dick Nixon to kick around anymore," Mr. Nixon moved into the White House. Politics is a tough game and a cruel master. Anything can happen, including the re-election of Mr. Trump.
Republicans operatives like you and me (and most of your other followers) need to realize that we are in the Spring Training season of the 2024 election. It really doesn’t start until rank and file Republicans start paying attention, and they won’t until well after the first debate. The “numbers,” which mean nothing at this point, won’t change until the fall, no matter what Trump or DeSantis or other candidates do.
That 13% should be the targeted enemies of western civilization. I am not a Trump fan, but I have the emotional maturity to know that throwing tantrums over meant Tweets to vote to keep Democrats in power is the stuff of character worse than anything Trump has said or done.
Unfortunately, Erick appears to be right here. Although I’m not sure what Desantis could be doing differently. Trump has a hardcore base and he’s still an ex-President. Moreover, the indictments help him with Republicans and the Left knows it.
I continue to foresee a Trump-Biden rematch with Biden winning a close election. Trump will claim again that it was stolen and we will have chaos. If Biden isn’t the candidate (which is a real possibility), then it will be Whitmer from Michigan, Newsome or Michelle Obama. Harris won’t be in the mix because she couldn’t win against anyone.
The question in my mind is - what is going to be the big surprise next year, like COVID was in 2020 that will aid the totalitarian Left? My really wild guess is that the government is going to publicly reveal that aliens have been visiting the Earth. It will be a lie, but it may cause more election laws being changed or even a cancellation of the election.
Patience patience. Even though the DOJ is attacking all conservatives, and arresting President Trump multiple times, it still does not offset the image of Hunter and Joe snorting lines of coke off the top of the Resolute Desk.
I liken this time period as softening up the beach ahead of the real campaign. There is no way the Secret Service is going to fall on the dope grenade. Garland will be impeached. Comey continues to drip drip drip. As the conservative courts double down on protecting our constitutional rights.
What Eric writes about is essentially a repeat of 2016 when Donald Trump polled a consistently strong minority of the vote and the many other contenders split the remaining vote. As has been noted before, the GOP has many very qualified contenders but they are diluting the vote. Most need to gracefully bow out so the non-Trump vote consolidates behind DeSantis or another designated opponent.
For the good of the country and the GOP, we must not have a Presidential race between two octogenarians and which likely translates into a Biden win with the great risk to the well-being of the Nation his continued Presidency poses.
DeSantis doesn't play well with the GOP because it's been gutted by Daddy Donny and has fully embraced his nihilistic postmodern rot. It's what radicals do.
I am a DeSantis guy. I like him. I want him to be the nominee but I am also a realist. Unless and until Ron DeSantis closes the gap, right now I'm getting my mind right for Trump to be the nominee. I'll vote for him if he is. I won't like it but I will. For those who would rather watch the world burn under the democrats than see Trump re-elected, I would suggest you stock up on Rolaids, Ibuprofen, and your favorite blood pressure meds because if 13% of you don't step up that's exactly what we'll see. If that happens I won't have an ounce of patience for our bellyaching from day one so don't even start.
It's always "Hold your nose and vote for our guy no matter what or we get a Democrat". I am so very sick of that. How about this: EVERY ballot has an option that's "None Of These Candidates". If that option wins, then whoever's on the ballot is not allowed to run again and new candidates are found.
I'm with you Joe. In fact, I was in the camp of "I'd rather watch it burn under a dem because I expect them to burn it down than watch a RINO do the same thing." I watched that happen with BHO, and while I voted for Trump in 2020 I'm watching that happen now because as Erick said 13% of the GOP would rather watch it burn under a democrat than elect Donald Trump. Living through the fire right now and hearing the Chinese war drums off in the distance I do not want to go to war with Joe Biden at the helm. China has stated they see war with the US as inevitable in the next five years, and that was about a year ago. Whoever we put in office in 2024 will have to helm us into the next world war. Who do you want that to be? THAT is the driving question for 2024. Everything else is secondary.
Mark, I get your point about going to war with China. But will that actually happen? Current trends do seem to suggest that danger. But current trends can change pretty quickly. It reminds me of that period from (roughly) 1978-1995, when people were so sure that the Japanese were going to decimate the USA. Japan's imperial ambitions had been on display since 1890. Their economy was growing by double-digits, and they were buying up everything they could, from property to sports teams to Iconic American brands. Japanese import automobiles were running circles around the Big 3. Japanese schoolchildren looked to be running circles around our own kids, in every academic category. The yen was strong, the dollar was weak. It seemed like the Japanese had SO MUCH MONEY. In 1991, a book was written entitled "The Coming War With Japan". A new US war with Japan was the subject of at least one of Tom Clancy's novels. And then, by the mid-1990's, it all just..... went away. Their crashing birth-rates had caught up with them. They started shutting down schools because there weren't enough kids. They started shutting down factories because they couldn't find enough workers (and they refused to allow immigration). The quality of US Automobiles vastly improved. Production started shifting to China because it was much cheaper.
Now, comparing China to Japan may be a bit of an "apples-to-oranges" comparison, however the concept is the same. Decades of China's 1-child policy, although rescinded in 2016, is leading to their own "population bomb". For every 20 young men, there is only one woman. China is a nation full of "only sons", and parents will not be that keen on sending their only child to die in a war.
You are correct in your assessment about both the fact that it is a potential war, and that Japan was misidentified as our next big foe. However, there is one thing that war with China has that war with Japan did not. China publishes their five year plan every five years. In this last publication about a year ago they explicit state they expect to go to war with us to achieve their goals. Not that we MIGHT start one with them that they need to prepare for. They expect that they will HAVE TO GO TO WAR to reach their goals, namely reunification with Taiwan. That was stated by China. Japan never said that.
Is it still an open-ended question? Yes it is, but it is a risk that is greater than 50/50 imo. So, A) is that a risk you are willing to take? B) if it is and it materializes are you willing to go to war with Biden or would you like someone else? As for me I would like someone else, and not just for this reason, but this is the over-arching one.
I am so fearful that not only will Donald Trump lose, he will take everyone else down with him. Even if lightning strikes twice and he wins, the scorched earth he will bring will set things back again at mid-term. Then another yo-yo of wiping out the last person’s executive orders and issuing a raft of your own.
We need some stability at this point and a return to normalcy. Another four years of unhinged leftism, or Trump score settling will inflict further damage on a skeptical, tired populace.
2024 is not about the culture war. The sooner DeSantis figures that out, the better. If the GOP wants the White House they need to practice tolerance and focus on crime, immigration, and the economy. And the state of education. And liberty. Individual rights and responsibilities-- even the rights of people to be idiots and mutilate themselves. Let them wither away with their infertility. Focus on the rest of the US
For the record, if republicans can't get behind stopping the mutilation of children, then they are worthless anyhow. It is not "tolerant" to allow medical abuse of kids. Adults can be as stupid as they want, but that isn't the issue with DeSantis or any republican that I have heard.
If they are unable to do this and deal with crime, immigration and the economy, they aren't any better than a democrat.
Same story. I voted for him twice and I will not again. Just praying voters open their eyes and see what Trump is all about...himself. Erick, just finished watching video THE A.I. Dilemma by the guys who made doc The social dilemma. Love to hear your thoughts if you get a chance to watch it.
The folks who are saying we should all just get on board with Trump because it is inevitable and only he can beat Biden sound eerily familiar to the progressives who say we should get on board with the inevitable progress by abandoning our faith, old-fashioned values, antiquated constructs of gender identity, etc.
Different goals, same narrow, myopic, and self-centered mindset.
I'm one of those 13% who will no longer vote for Trump. No, I won't vote for a Democrat but I will leave the "presidential" part of my ballot blank. I live in the State of Washington, so, trust me, short of a Depression, it really won't make a difference. I voted for him twice extremely reluctantly but NO more!
Yep, I lived in that state for over 20 years and went to UofW in 1960. But my children that live there will NOT leave a blank vote in the Presidential vote. I prefer RD, but if it is Trump, I will vote for him as he did a lot for our country but is a spoiled brat most of the time. I will be 90 next year and I can do a better job of running this country and treating any opposition better that he but then no one knows my name. Until today.
If it comes down to those two 80-somethings again...grrrrr. A lot of people won't vote for either one, including me.
We need somebody who can beat these Democrats up and down the ballot before they destroy our country. Not claim never-ending victim status when they lose to them. Time to move on from Trump.
This kind of speculation misses the mark entirely. On the one hand, you write that "13% of the GOP really did vote Democrat in 2022"; on the other hand, your supposition conflates to "if 13% of the GOP will never vote for him." There may have been many who turned against Trump in 2020 who now see the error of their ways. There is no way that same 13% can feel satisfied they did the right thing in voting for Biden, so they can't be counted as "never-Trump" or even "never-again Trump." Eight short years after "You won't have Dick Nixon to kick around anymore," Mr. Nixon moved into the White House. Politics is a tough game and a cruel master. Anything can happen, including the re-election of Mr. Trump.
Republicans operatives like you and me (and most of your other followers) need to realize that we are in the Spring Training season of the 2024 election. It really doesn’t start until rank and file Republicans start paying attention, and they won’t until well after the first debate. The “numbers,” which mean nothing at this point, won’t change until the fall, no matter what Trump or DeSantis or other candidates do.
That 13% should be the targeted enemies of western civilization. I am not a Trump fan, but I have the emotional maturity to know that throwing tantrums over meant Tweets to vote to keep Democrats in power is the stuff of character worse than anything Trump has said or done.
Unfortunately, Erick appears to be right here. Although I’m not sure what Desantis could be doing differently. Trump has a hardcore base and he’s still an ex-President. Moreover, the indictments help him with Republicans and the Left knows it.
I continue to foresee a Trump-Biden rematch with Biden winning a close election. Trump will claim again that it was stolen and we will have chaos. If Biden isn’t the candidate (which is a real possibility), then it will be Whitmer from Michigan, Newsome or Michelle Obama. Harris won’t be in the mix because she couldn’t win against anyone.
The question in my mind is - what is going to be the big surprise next year, like COVID was in 2020 that will aid the totalitarian Left? My really wild guess is that the government is going to publicly reveal that aliens have been visiting the Earth. It will be a lie, but it may cause more election laws being changed or even a cancellation of the election.
Have fun with this one.
Patience patience. Even though the DOJ is attacking all conservatives, and arresting President Trump multiple times, it still does not offset the image of Hunter and Joe snorting lines of coke off the top of the Resolute Desk.
I liken this time period as softening up the beach ahead of the real campaign. There is no way the Secret Service is going to fall on the dope grenade. Garland will be impeached. Comey continues to drip drip drip. As the conservative courts double down on protecting our constitutional rights.
Cheers
I believe he meant he supports people of lesser means. People that may not have had the advantages or luck you or I may have been blessed with.
What Eric writes about is essentially a repeat of 2016 when Donald Trump polled a consistently strong minority of the vote and the many other contenders split the remaining vote. As has been noted before, the GOP has many very qualified contenders but they are diluting the vote. Most need to gracefully bow out so the non-Trump vote consolidates behind DeSantis or another designated opponent.
For the good of the country and the GOP, we must not have a Presidential race between two octogenarians and which likely translates into a Biden win with the great risk to the well-being of the Nation his continued Presidency poses.
DeSantis doesn't play well with the GOP because it's been gutted by Daddy Donny and has fully embraced his nihilistic postmodern rot. It's what radicals do.
I am a DeSantis guy. I like him. I want him to be the nominee but I am also a realist. Unless and until Ron DeSantis closes the gap, right now I'm getting my mind right for Trump to be the nominee. I'll vote for him if he is. I won't like it but I will. For those who would rather watch the world burn under the democrats than see Trump re-elected, I would suggest you stock up on Rolaids, Ibuprofen, and your favorite blood pressure meds because if 13% of you don't step up that's exactly what we'll see. If that happens I won't have an ounce of patience for our bellyaching from day one so don't even start.
It's always "Hold your nose and vote for our guy no matter what or we get a Democrat". I am so very sick of that. How about this: EVERY ballot has an option that's "None Of These Candidates". If that option wins, then whoever's on the ballot is not allowed to run again and new candidates are found.
I'm with you Joe. In fact, I was in the camp of "I'd rather watch it burn under a dem because I expect them to burn it down than watch a RINO do the same thing." I watched that happen with BHO, and while I voted for Trump in 2020 I'm watching that happen now because as Erick said 13% of the GOP would rather watch it burn under a democrat than elect Donald Trump. Living through the fire right now and hearing the Chinese war drums off in the distance I do not want to go to war with Joe Biden at the helm. China has stated they see war with the US as inevitable in the next five years, and that was about a year ago. Whoever we put in office in 2024 will have to helm us into the next world war. Who do you want that to be? THAT is the driving question for 2024. Everything else is secondary.
Mark, I get your point about going to war with China. But will that actually happen? Current trends do seem to suggest that danger. But current trends can change pretty quickly. It reminds me of that period from (roughly) 1978-1995, when people were so sure that the Japanese were going to decimate the USA. Japan's imperial ambitions had been on display since 1890. Their economy was growing by double-digits, and they were buying up everything they could, from property to sports teams to Iconic American brands. Japanese import automobiles were running circles around the Big 3. Japanese schoolchildren looked to be running circles around our own kids, in every academic category. The yen was strong, the dollar was weak. It seemed like the Japanese had SO MUCH MONEY. In 1991, a book was written entitled "The Coming War With Japan". A new US war with Japan was the subject of at least one of Tom Clancy's novels. And then, by the mid-1990's, it all just..... went away. Their crashing birth-rates had caught up with them. They started shutting down schools because there weren't enough kids. They started shutting down factories because they couldn't find enough workers (and they refused to allow immigration). The quality of US Automobiles vastly improved. Production started shifting to China because it was much cheaper.
Now, comparing China to Japan may be a bit of an "apples-to-oranges" comparison, however the concept is the same. Decades of China's 1-child policy, although rescinded in 2016, is leading to their own "population bomb". For every 20 young men, there is only one woman. China is a nation full of "only sons", and parents will not be that keen on sending their only child to die in a war.
You are correct in your assessment about both the fact that it is a potential war, and that Japan was misidentified as our next big foe. However, there is one thing that war with China has that war with Japan did not. China publishes their five year plan every five years. In this last publication about a year ago they explicit state they expect to go to war with us to achieve their goals. Not that we MIGHT start one with them that they need to prepare for. They expect that they will HAVE TO GO TO WAR to reach their goals, namely reunification with Taiwan. That was stated by China. Japan never said that.
Is it still an open-ended question? Yes it is, but it is a risk that is greater than 50/50 imo. So, A) is that a risk you are willing to take? B) if it is and it materializes are you willing to go to war with Biden or would you like someone else? As for me I would like someone else, and not just for this reason, but this is the over-arching one.
I am so fearful that not only will Donald Trump lose, he will take everyone else down with him. Even if lightning strikes twice and he wins, the scorched earth he will bring will set things back again at mid-term. Then another yo-yo of wiping out the last person’s executive orders and issuing a raft of your own.
We need some stability at this point and a return to normalcy. Another four years of unhinged leftism, or Trump score settling will inflict further damage on a skeptical, tired populace.
2024 is not about the culture war. The sooner DeSantis figures that out, the better. If the GOP wants the White House they need to practice tolerance and focus on crime, immigration, and the economy. And the state of education. And liberty. Individual rights and responsibilities-- even the rights of people to be idiots and mutilate themselves. Let them wither away with their infertility. Focus on the rest of the US
For the record, if republicans can't get behind stopping the mutilation of children, then they are worthless anyhow. It is not "tolerant" to allow medical abuse of kids. Adults can be as stupid as they want, but that isn't the issue with DeSantis or any republican that I have heard.
If they are unable to do this and deal with crime, immigration and the economy, they aren't any better than a democrat.
I draw a distinction between adult idiocy and child abuse. Abuse is a crime and should be explained in those terms.
Same story. I voted for him twice and I will not again. Just praying voters open their eyes and see what Trump is all about...himself. Erick, just finished watching video THE A.I. Dilemma by the guys who made doc The social dilemma. Love to hear your thoughts if you get a chance to watch it.
We need a prominent well respected voice on the right to help bring the primary votes to someone else. I don't really know who that is yet.
The folks who are saying we should all just get on board with Trump because it is inevitable and only he can beat Biden sound eerily familiar to the progressives who say we should get on board with the inevitable progress by abandoning our faith, old-fashioned values, antiquated constructs of gender identity, etc.
Different goals, same narrow, myopic, and self-centered mindset.
I'm one of those 13% who will no longer vote for Trump. No, I won't vote for a Democrat but I will leave the "presidential" part of my ballot blank. I live in the State of Washington, so, trust me, short of a Depression, it really won't make a difference. I voted for him twice extremely reluctantly but NO more!
Yep, I lived in that state for over 20 years and went to UofW in 1960. But my children that live there will NOT leave a blank vote in the Presidential vote. I prefer RD, but if it is Trump, I will vote for him as he did a lot for our country but is a spoiled brat most of the time. I will be 90 next year and I can do a better job of running this country and treating any opposition better that he but then no one knows my name. Until today.
Blessings to you all
I live in The People's Republic of Washington State too so I know what you mean...
I did that I 2020 and I’ll do it again. I suspect more than 13% will bail on the GOP if Trump is the nominee
If it comes down to those two 80-somethings again...grrrrr. A lot of people won't vote for either one, including me.
We need somebody who can beat these Democrats up and down the ballot before they destroy our country. Not claim never-ending victim status when they lose to them. Time to move on from Trump.
DeSantis '24!
I’m with you. I won’t vote for either Trump or Biden. I’ll just vote down ballot.