With the possible exception of Pennsylvania Puerto Ricans being p*ssed, most of the events of this past week will have minimal effect on the outcome because the only people following politics closely enough to notice have already decided who they're voting for. Though they may also affect turnout, for those just tuning in (so to speak), the main thing reaching them will be the paid ads. Swaying those few undecideds and turning out your voters is what really matters at this point.
Now I'm deeply confused. Democrats have allowed Trump to win not once but twice. They didn't see him coming in 2016 but here, Democrats have had plenty of time to steal this one . . . and yet they have not.
I was cracking up at the number of orange safety vests I saw while trick-or-treating with our son last night, some of which were worn by teenagers! Brilliant move by Trump's team.
A number of years ago there was a movie starring Kevin Costner (I don't remember the name) where he was the last undecided voter in America. Both campaigns did everything they could to convince the guy to vote for them.
The way things are going, it could come down to one voter in one district in Nebraska.
It was called swing voter and it is probably one of the worst movies of all time. While it did well to show the incompetence of politicians it also was completely wrong and a misrepresentation of the voting system and it had a terrible ending.
Its worth it to watch the first hour as it is a rather quaint father/daughter drama. But then it gets really bad. Horrible stereotypes against "country folk" and especially white country folk, painting all of them like dumb stupid morons who have no clue about America and are so disconnected we should leave it to the educated people.
It was bad. Not biased toward either party just horrible acting and bad over tones.
The most frustrating thing was how incorrect it was. Each state has laws and policies on the books for election ties, both in electoral and state votes.
- If the Electoral collage was tied, it would go to Congress. The House would elect the president and Senate would elect the VP.
If a state was tied in New Mexico the they have procedures to break the tie. If a state fails to certify its election by a certain date those states electoral votes are forfeit.
It wont be over. After this then its 2026 and 2028. We get to do this all over again, unless China or Russia decide to launch a few nukes our way. God forbid.
Add Cuban's insult about women and you have a perfect Democrat BINGO! This would be a perfect time for DJT to swallow his pride and invite Haley to join him on the trail.
Many think Biden's gaffes are just an "old guy, dementia fluke". Personally, I think Biden still has a few working gray cells and may be slyly undermining Kamala just to stick it to the Dem party (namely Pelosi, Obama, and Harris) for throwing him under the bus.
While it looks like Trump is riding higher than ever and Harris is a disaster, I'd just like to take a moment to offer a cautionary word to Republicans here:
What I've noticed about the GOP over the past 25 years is that the closer election day comes (or, more appropriately, the election deadline), there always seems to be more happiness, enthusiasm, energy and positive momentum for them. Democrats tend to look a lot more angry, gloomy, panicked and pessimistic. But when the voting is finally done and the votes are tallied, the often-vaunted "red wave" which is supposed to be a clean sweep for the GOP either turns out to be a trickle where they barely eek out a win, or they just simply lose.
So anyone who thinks that this election is going to be a landslide win for Trump and the GOP better reconsider that. No matter how you slice it, this race is neck-and-neck and it will all boil down to voter turnout.
"Don't count your eggs until they're in the pudding, Calamy." - Capt. Jack Aubrey
"And that's all I've got to say about that." - Forrest Gump
Correct and incorrect. Different environment and this is not 2022. That is the only time I had ever seen a prediction of a red wave that did not happen. Mid terms are not a good predictor of general elections. Republicans one back both houses of congress and lost in 1996. Republicans gained seats in 2002 for the first time ever, and then lost overwhelmingly in 2006.
Each election cycle is different and has its own nuances that can't really be drawn from history.
You can get some ideas from Polls. I don't believe the pollsters saying they changed their methods and that's why trump is showing better than in 2016 or 2020. That there won't be a Trump over performance. I don't believe that for a second. The polls are pretty much using the same methods they always do. Trump always outperforms his polling so in reality Harris is way behind.
The one thing you can expect in the next few days is for the pollsters to over correct back to Harris and show her "tightening" the gap. That makes headlines and generates clicks. But its for show only.
Watching the actions of the Harris campaign and her mannerisms its clear about two possible things.
Either the cheat is on and she knows she will win , or is confident she will. Or she didn't really want it to begin with and is just coasting to the end.
Until the results are in, we truly won’t know, and even then, there will be doubts, as there have been firing most of my lifetime. The exception I still remember being in CA in 1980 with all the news folks gobsmacked when Reagan won. Polls are always showing dramatic swings back and forth in the last weeks of the campaign, in part because it sells newspapers and web ads and it creates the needs for more polls. Trying to figure out how 150M Voters are going to vote with decimal point accuracy by only sampling 600 or 800 strangers is like trying to guess the temperature 50 years from now by sampling data more than sixty miles apart. We all earnestly want someone to tell us the future outcome to dispel our doubts and fears, and every cycle they come up with some sudden shift that. “explains” it all to us. How can we prove that the election is won because ‘suburban housewives in northern states’ are totally in lockstep? I know all about exit polling, etc, but those interviews are aimed at samples of people that fit a type - not random selection. We vote by ostensibly secret ballots for a reason - to allow people to freely make a choice without coercion - from anyone. So we allow this theater to distract us and we avoid speaking, person to person, about the issues.
You make some good points.. But I will remain cautiously optimistic nonetheless. The GOP has this fantastic way of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
They may have done so again: Had Trump graciously accepted defeat, attended Biden's inaugural and conducted himself as has every other defeated presidential candidate in recent history, he would have won this in a walk.
I've never liked the guy, and will probably be writing in Haley, but I have to give credit to the Trump team this week.
Retail politics? Probably the best I've seen since Bill Clinton. Note to Brian Kemp: if you run against Jon Pajama Boy Ossoff, be ready. He's good at retail politics, too.
Somebody trolls you? Troll back harder and make them wish they never started it.
Joy? Yeah, I'll show you JOY.
Not enough money for a good ground game? Own the media cycles.
The Harris campaign looks like a mess right now with zero control over message, first and foremost from their own team.
Trump has charisma and truly seems to be having fun. Kamala is dour and sour as are her supporters. Trump’s rally is filled with hope, laughter and excitement. The projecting Democrats rally is filled with hate, lies and clapping seals. Yes we will abort more babies! 👏👏👏 Trump supporters are Nazis 👏👏 Like Joe and me, Trump will lock up his political enemies. 👏👏👏.
Just for the sheer entertainment of watching my angry Kamala supporting neighbor (two Kamala signs in her front yard) lose her mind, I want to see Trump win. 🥳😀 Of course there are real reasons too. However, if he does win be careful in Atlanta next Wednesday. Those well to do white liberal women will be angry.😡😁
I am in Atlanta and hope to hear the primal screams of several neighbors, one of whom has placed large poster boards with letters spelling out K-A-M-A-L-A (with a USA heart flag for the first A) across the front of her house. It is obnoxious. She consistently lectures people on social media (not FB) for “mansplaining.”
I don’t get the Georgia vs North Carolina thing, because Harris sure isn’t pulling ads from Georgia. The polls on Real Clear show Trump leading more here in GA than in NC. Do their private polls differ so much?
I get that this race may be tied. But there is no ties in presidential races. So one of them will be ahead on election night.
The problem is as they are already suggesting that results may take days makes my blood boil. Because in a world were we can see where when and how a lottery ticket was bought, we can’t to this day get a vote count on one night.
The sentiment is still against Harris. She doesn’t have the kind of support she needed. I think this race would be much closer if Biden has stayed in. As it is they had to remake a whole campaign in less than a few weeks. It’s not enough.
It’s the delays in reporting that make people suspicious of what is happening behind the scenes. Then at least half our country wants to turn all of our healthcare over to the government. Liberalism is a mental disorder.
I would encourage the Georgia SoS office to require all counties to embargo their election results until all counties have submitted them, and release them all at once.
With the possible exception of Pennsylvania Puerto Ricans being p*ssed, most of the events of this past week will have minimal effect on the outcome because the only people following politics closely enough to notice have already decided who they're voting for. Though they may also affect turnout, for those just tuning in (so to speak), the main thing reaching them will be the paid ads. Swaying those few undecideds and turning out your voters is what really matters at this point.
If it's a virtual tie, Trump will win. He always overperforms.
Except for 2016, he always loses.
And Democrats always cheat. No exceptions.
Now I'm deeply confused. Democrats have allowed Trump to win not once but twice. They didn't see him coming in 2016 but here, Democrats have had plenty of time to steal this one . . . and yet they have not.
Then how did Democrats lose in 2016?
Blame Hillary Clinton. Despite the Dems best efforts to lie, cheat, and steal, it still wasn't enough to push Cankles over the line.
I was cracking up at the number of orange safety vests I saw while trick-or-treating with our son last night, some of which were worn by teenagers! Brilliant move by Trump's team.
5 more days of texts...
A number of years ago there was a movie starring Kevin Costner (I don't remember the name) where he was the last undecided voter in America. Both campaigns did everything they could to convince the guy to vote for them.
The way things are going, it could come down to one voter in one district in Nebraska.
It was called swing voter and it is probably one of the worst movies of all time. While it did well to show the incompetence of politicians it also was completely wrong and a misrepresentation of the voting system and it had a terrible ending.
Thanks for the mini-review!
Costner has had some great movies, but he sure has had some terrible ones as well.
Its worth it to watch the first hour as it is a rather quaint father/daughter drama. But then it gets really bad. Horrible stereotypes against "country folk" and especially white country folk, painting all of them like dumb stupid morons who have no clue about America and are so disconnected we should leave it to the educated people.
It was bad. Not biased toward either party just horrible acting and bad over tones.
The most frustrating thing was how incorrect it was. Each state has laws and policies on the books for election ties, both in electoral and state votes.
- If the Electoral collage was tied, it would go to Congress. The House would elect the president and Senate would elect the VP.
If a state was tied in New Mexico the they have procedures to break the tie. If a state fails to certify its election by a certain date those states electoral votes are forfeit.
Its just a movie, I get it. But it was just bad.
I cannot WAIT for this to be OVER
It wont be over. After this then its 2026 and 2028. We get to do this all over again, unless China or Russia decide to launch a few nukes our way. God forbid.
But the commercials will be over for a few weeks at least!
Add Cuban's insult about women and you have a perfect Democrat BINGO! This would be a perfect time for DJT to swallow his pride and invite Haley to join him on the trail.
Agreed.
Many think Biden's gaffes are just an "old guy, dementia fluke". Personally, I think Biden still has a few working gray cells and may be slyly undermining Kamala just to stick it to the Dem party (namely Pelosi, Obama, and Harris) for throwing him under the bus.
Revenge brain cells are the last to fire.
I do not Doubt it for one minute
While it looks like Trump is riding higher than ever and Harris is a disaster, I'd just like to take a moment to offer a cautionary word to Republicans here:
What I've noticed about the GOP over the past 25 years is that the closer election day comes (or, more appropriately, the election deadline), there always seems to be more happiness, enthusiasm, energy and positive momentum for them. Democrats tend to look a lot more angry, gloomy, panicked and pessimistic. But when the voting is finally done and the votes are tallied, the often-vaunted "red wave" which is supposed to be a clean sweep for the GOP either turns out to be a trickle where they barely eek out a win, or they just simply lose.
So anyone who thinks that this election is going to be a landslide win for Trump and the GOP better reconsider that. No matter how you slice it, this race is neck-and-neck and it will all boil down to voter turnout.
"Don't count your eggs until they're in the pudding, Calamy." - Capt. Jack Aubrey
"And that's all I've got to say about that." - Forrest Gump
Correct and incorrect. Different environment and this is not 2022. That is the only time I had ever seen a prediction of a red wave that did not happen. Mid terms are not a good predictor of general elections. Republicans one back both houses of congress and lost in 1996. Republicans gained seats in 2002 for the first time ever, and then lost overwhelmingly in 2006.
Each election cycle is different and has its own nuances that can't really be drawn from history.
You can get some ideas from Polls. I don't believe the pollsters saying they changed their methods and that's why trump is showing better than in 2016 or 2020. That there won't be a Trump over performance. I don't believe that for a second. The polls are pretty much using the same methods they always do. Trump always outperforms his polling so in reality Harris is way behind.
The one thing you can expect in the next few days is for the pollsters to over correct back to Harris and show her "tightening" the gap. That makes headlines and generates clicks. But its for show only.
Watching the actions of the Harris campaign and her mannerisms its clear about two possible things.
Either the cheat is on and she knows she will win , or is confident she will. Or she didn't really want it to begin with and is just coasting to the end.
Until the results are in, we truly won’t know, and even then, there will be doubts, as there have been firing most of my lifetime. The exception I still remember being in CA in 1980 with all the news folks gobsmacked when Reagan won. Polls are always showing dramatic swings back and forth in the last weeks of the campaign, in part because it sells newspapers and web ads and it creates the needs for more polls. Trying to figure out how 150M Voters are going to vote with decimal point accuracy by only sampling 600 or 800 strangers is like trying to guess the temperature 50 years from now by sampling data more than sixty miles apart. We all earnestly want someone to tell us the future outcome to dispel our doubts and fears, and every cycle they come up with some sudden shift that. “explains” it all to us. How can we prove that the election is won because ‘suburban housewives in northern states’ are totally in lockstep? I know all about exit polling, etc, but those interviews are aimed at samples of people that fit a type - not random selection. We vote by ostensibly secret ballots for a reason - to allow people to freely make a choice without coercion - from anyone. So we allow this theater to distract us and we avoid speaking, person to person, about the issues.
If "in reality Harris is way behind," she sure doesn't appear to be in early voting.
You make some good points.. But I will remain cautiously optimistic nonetheless. The GOP has this fantastic way of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
They may have done so again: Had Trump graciously accepted defeat, attended Biden's inaugural and conducted himself as has every other defeated presidential candidate in recent history, he would have won this in a walk.
Content without context is pretext.
"Dictator" "Bloodbath" "Trump will protect or women"
I've never liked the guy, and will probably be writing in Haley, but I have to give credit to the Trump team this week.
Retail politics? Probably the best I've seen since Bill Clinton. Note to Brian Kemp: if you run against Jon Pajama Boy Ossoff, be ready. He's good at retail politics, too.
Somebody trolls you? Troll back harder and make them wish they never started it.
Joy? Yeah, I'll show you JOY.
Not enough money for a good ground game? Own the media cycles.
The Harris campaign looks like a mess right now with zero control over message, first and foremost from their own team.
First time I have ever seen the garbage driving the truck. Amazing! ;)
That did make me chuckle a bit 😅
Pray that whoever is elected will be on God’s side.
God may be in control..... but does He have to drive us off a cliff?
Amen.
Trump has charisma and truly seems to be having fun. Kamala is dour and sour as are her supporters. Trump’s rally is filled with hope, laughter and excitement. The projecting Democrats rally is filled with hate, lies and clapping seals. Yes we will abort more babies! 👏👏👏 Trump supporters are Nazis 👏👏 Like Joe and me, Trump will lock up his political enemies. 👏👏👏.
Just for the sheer entertainment of watching my angry Kamala supporting neighbor (two Kamala signs in her front yard) lose her mind, I want to see Trump win. 🥳😀 Of course there are real reasons too. However, if he does win be careful in Atlanta next Wednesday. Those well to do white liberal women will be angry.😡😁
I am in Atlanta and hope to hear the primal screams of several neighbors, one of whom has placed large poster boards with letters spelling out K-A-M-A-L-A (with a USA heart flag for the first A) across the front of her house. It is obnoxious. She consistently lectures people on social media (not FB) for “mansplaining.”
I don’t get the Georgia vs North Carolina thing, because Harris sure isn’t pulling ads from Georgia. The polls on Real Clear show Trump leading more here in GA than in NC. Do their private polls differ so much?
I get that this race may be tied. But there is no ties in presidential races. So one of them will be ahead on election night.
The problem is as they are already suggesting that results may take days makes my blood boil. Because in a world were we can see where when and how a lottery ticket was bought, we can’t to this day get a vote count on one night.
The sentiment is still against Harris. She doesn’t have the kind of support she needed. I think this race would be much closer if Biden has stayed in. As it is they had to remake a whole campaign in less than a few weeks. It’s not enough.
4 days from now I guess we will know
More.
It’s the delays in reporting that make people suspicious of what is happening behind the scenes. Then at least half our country wants to turn all of our healthcare over to the government. Liberalism is a mental disorder.
I would encourage the Georgia SoS office to require all counties to embargo their election results until all counties have submitted them, and release them all at once.