Here’s Where I Think the Race Stands

This weekend, Donald Trump worked the fry station and drive thru window at a McDonald’s in Pennsylvania. One might think the person who claims to have worked at a McDonald’s during college and who supports an increased minimum wage would go do that to highlight her positions, background, and care for the working class. Instead, she and her supporters were left to mock and scoff at Trump for doing a “photo op.” He did what she could have done. And he looked like he was having fun.

In fact, Trump looks like he is having fun on the campaign trail. Harris looks like she is not enjoying the joy. That tells me a great deal. You and the media can make a big deal out of Trump’s Arnold Palmer penis conversation, but Trump has always been the most real person running for President. The Democrats do not understand men, let alone an “Everyman internet comment section” come to life.

Their outrage, mockery, and scoffing at his rallies and fry slinging at McDonald’s actually work to his advantage. The progressive base is as clueless about this stuff as they are outreach to men who don’t sit to pee.

I think, if the election were held today, Donald Trump would win the Electoral College. The last few weeks have seen a noticeable shift nationally in the polling and in the battle ground states towards Donald Trump.

But the signs go beyond the polling.

Democrats have already started blaming each other. They think the Harris campaign has failed in Pennsylvania. They blame her lame outreach to men. They are starting to bellyache about Joe Biden not getting out sooner. In Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, the incumbent Democrat Senators are running ads featuring Donald Trump and their ability to work with him. Both had voted to impeach him.

In February of 2023, Jonathan Martin of Politico reported how senior Democrats lamented Kamala Harris, despite all efforts, was not ready for prime time. In September of 2023, New York magazine openly called for Biden to drop Harris. In February of 2024, Jonathan Martin insisted that, despite Republican claims to the contrary, there was no way Democrats would ditch Biden, particularly for Harris.

And here we are.

With the exception of Michigan, which I think is too close to call, I think Trump wins Pennsylvania and the race for the White House. Sure, I could be wrong. But Democrats are not Republicans. They tend to be able to keep their dread and terror to themselves until after the election.

But they have convinced their base that Donald Trump is an existential threat to democracy and have not done what they needed to do to stop him. If Trump does win, there will be riots. And in two years, Republicans will need to do to Democrats what Joe Biden did to Republicans — insist they cannot be trusted with power, given their propensity to burn down America.

Trump should use Independence Hall with Marines and red lighting, duplicating Biden’s backdrop from 2022.

All that said, you need to go vote. In the meantime, just look at the candidates and their supporters. Trump and his supporters are excited. Harris and hers — not to mention the press corps — look like they need a Groupon code to a therapist.

If Harris and hers team were not signaling defeat, the American press corps’ hysteria right now would. CBS News continues its damage control over editing Kamala Harris’s 60 Minutes interview and they will not release the full transcript. MSNBC needs Xanax. David Muir acts like he is preparing for a reeducation camp. And even parts of the CNN crew, including the returned Brian Stelter, just seem to think if they fear monger Trump more, people will have second thoughts.

It is all driving people to Trump.

To my friends in the press, you can’t keep lecturing Americans on how bad Trump is and how good the economy is while giving lip service to “lived experience.” You may view Donald Trump as a threat to America, but the average American views Joe Biden and Kamala Harris as a threat to their family’s checkbook. And they view that as a bigger threat to America than Trump who, last I checked, left the White House on January 20, 2021, without having to be forced out.

And what came next? Inflation they said was transitory and a million jobs revision downward on the data the press insisted meant everything was fine. Macro-economically, absolutely, the United States is better off than any other country. But Americans vote micro-economically and gas and groceries cost more than they did when Trump left office.

And he’s in a McDonald’s showing his support for ordinary Americans while Kamala Harris is hanging out with celebrities who haven’t felt the sting of inflation. That’s why I’m comfortable with thinking the race looks like this map right now.

But, if Trump gets the ice cream machines at McDonald’s fixed, this map would change to a Reagan-Mondale landslide.