To use a football analogy: We're up by 7-10 points and it's early in the 4th quarter. Better to be ahead and not behind, but there is still a lot of time on the clock
I've heard rumors that the Dems may be looking at desperation moves such as doing a full-court press in TX and FL to get those 70 electoral votes, and maybe a couple of Senate seats.
Anyone else heard that? The rationale is that TX and FL have the weakest GOP numbers of any red state besides the 7 swing states, plus the two most vulnerable GOP Senate seats.
Of course, this is the equivalent of putting the mortgage payment on one number on the roulette wheel. If you win, you win big, but the odds aren't great that you will win.
The big problems with that plan are that 1) to properly cover both states will require a lot of resources that then won't be deployable elsewhere and 2) the GOP leads, at least on the POTUS side, have been pretty durable and by 5 or more points. The Senate leads have been less durable but are now trending in a GOP direction.
1. Introduce the candidate to voters who don't know a lot about her.
2. Roll out policy positions that contrast favorably against Trump's.
Then (and only then)
3. Hammer away at Trump's negatives.
This is the strategy that I've been predicting from the Harris campaign and if this ad (that started airing a few days ago in "battleground" states) is any indication, that's how they're playing it.
Democrats and their constituents are the most class-biased and tone-deaf political animals I think we have ever experienced, and I think it is explained by the corruption of the mainstream media and big tech that has weakened Democrat politicians as they are given complete cover and thus don't develop strong enough campaign skills... and hypnotized the Democrat electorate into rage and stupidity to vote for the very people responsible for every critical domestic and global social and economic problem we are dealing with today.
One last general semi-misogynist comment.
The Democrat party is the party of females and girly-men. Females and girly-men have a common challenge of uncontrolled emotions that makes them extra susceptible to outside influence that appeals to their uncontrolled emotions. Their emotional turmoil also causes them to seek affiliation with those that validate their feelings... make them feel less anxious about their lack of control.
Conversely, the Republican party is divided into the neocons and working class, but the commonality is that the Republican electorate is generally independent-minded and more emotionally controlled.
These uncontrolled emotions and pursuit of comrades like them has allowed the Democrats to become powerful in their organization and messaging. They walk and talk like the same duck. However, they have stopped thinking critically... they are so emotionally charged that they cannot punch through the noise to admit they have been wrong about anything. It is just too devastating for them to admit that their out of over-heated emotional energy is a flaw and not some female-power asset. They use their education to weave a protective web of rhetoric that they feel good about as "giving it to those conservative white male brutes"... but that really only prevents them from learning and growing and understanding... causes them to entrench more deeply into their safe space coastal and big city liberal cocoon... that the NYT and MSNBC will gladly validate for them if they keep up their readership and viewership.
I expect Trump and the Republicans to win... and if I was a critical thinking Democrat I would want the same... for the simple reason that the Democrat electorate is broken and needs reform... and the only way that will happen is if there is a resounding defeat in the next election.
At the risk of beating my point into the ground, I feel compelled to push back against this again on more general grounds than those previously offered.
The notion that other kinds of people are fundamentally different from us is really quite dangerous. If "they" are inherently not as good as us, this can justify running roughshod over their rights "for the good of the nation." For example, if there are more of "them" voting for Harris than people voting for Trump . . . .
You and I are not all that different, Frank. We just disagree.
Oh and check the tape on the Harris-Trump debate. After Harris boldly walked over and introduced herself, Trump never had the guts to even look at her for the rest of the night.
Not once. CHECK THE TAPE.
Unwilling to debate Harris again, appear on 60 Minutes or go anywhere else where he might be fact checked . . . or back in the day, answer the call of his country to military service . . . your boy Trump is worse than a girly-man.
I'm a Democrat and not only am I an Army vet, but coming within one punch of winning the title in the regional Golden Gloves tournament (which punch I not only did not throw, I never even saw it . . . but I digress), I was once the No. 2 amateur light-heavyweight in downstate Illinois. Nobody has ever called me a "girly-man" before . . . at least, not to my face.
You need to reconsider (or maybe even trash) your political assumptions, Frank. They're nonsense.
If that was in any way misogynistic, then I am also misogynistic. The only thing I am not so sure of is Trump and republicans winning. We are dealing with people who operate strictly on emotion, but who are willing to do literally anything to win.
Frank has basically argued that women cannot think and behave rationally. If that's what you think, then you are indeed misogynistic.
Get your people to think that folks on the other side are fundamentally not like them, making them "the other": that's what fascist leaders do. Bringing people together and emphasizing the interests that we have in common is what democratic leaders do.
Clearly neither he nor I mean all women. Sadly, most of them it seems. I am a logical thinker not an emotional one. All one has to do is look at what a majority of women are doing and saying on the subject of this election. Most of it is emotional, feelings related, not grounded in any sort of logic or reality. And it is the democrats who do the dividing so yes it is kind of fascist of them.
On the other hand, if you read what I wrote and think it is the Democrats that I was suggesting to be fascist, then maybe Frank is right about women not being able to think.
I know it is the democrats who are fascist, and I am fully aware that you fail to recognize it. I hope you don't mind that I laugh at your feeble attempt to make me react emotionally with an attempt at an insult.
The women for whom abortion is the main issue are thinking quite rationally, there being no question that anti-abortion laws take away from them a right that they used to have. Setting aside the merits of the issue, more rights being better than less rights is only rational.
A guy named Al Campanis once suggested that blacks don't have the "necessities" to manage a major league baseball team. Ever since a black man ran the country well enough for the American people to sign up for a second term, you don't hear that sort of thing too much anymore. So what would also be a rational course for women would be to help put a woman in a position to prove that (except for those involving physical strength) a woman can do any job that a man can do; helping to break the "glass ceiling" not just at the White House, but everywhere else as well.
Women who voluntarily kill their unborn children are not in the least rational to start with. And there was never a constitutional right to do so. The lefts favorite Supreme Court Justice, Ruth Bader Ginsberg said that herself. She openly said it was an issue for the states. Which is where it is now. Sorry, I know nothing about baseball or who said what about it. There are many men who are not white for whom I would happily vote. The one raised by Marxists was not one of them. Nor did he run the country well. As a matter of fact, he was nothing more than the switch that turned on the machine put in place over decades by the rabid leftists which accelerated the downfall of the country as it was founded. And he certainly did the job for which he was trained up. Now we see if we can overcome the machine. I don't think we can. And the emotional woman voter is a great part of that.
What if the dems really are cheating and stuffing ballot boxes and sending in fake votes and invalid voters like illegals are voting in mass?
What would anyone be able to do about it ? Honestly. Obama and all of them could come out and say they defrauded the vote and what would anyone be able to do?
The problem with this is it's speculative at best and conspiracy nonsense at worst, like when Trump himself gave the Senate to Democrats with Warnock.
And when Trump wins the Democrats will turn this on you with the same unsubstantiated BS and suddenly for you the election was totally fair, honest, and above board.
Remember 2016 Russia, Russia, Russia? I had a friend who was convicted Trump was the Manchurian candidate and guilty of treason, he listened to CNN and MSNBC.
There are issues, anomalies, and irregularities in every election. Because of our system those issues have not to date swung a national election.
Sorry Chaz not much clear thinking in that comment. Did JFK call for a recount when several thousand late (as in "dead") children and grandchildren of Irish immigrants voted for him in Cooks Co in 1960?
I’m not voting for a pastor or a cult leader I’m voting for what’s best for my country and my family I’m voting for policies that help the regular people in this country . That’s why I voted Trump / Vance sorry people Trump is not the second coming and he is not the devil He’s the same person he was 30 years ago when Oprah called him my friend
In those days he was just a social climbing panderer trying hard to cover up the fact that his apt complexes rental application systems discriminated against people of color.
Funny, despite everything Erick says, the polls still show Trump behind by 1-2 %age points.
I want to believe you, Erick, but I can’t help recalling the last time Trump ran for office and your predictions which were, well, you know…..
I realize you don’t have a genie in a bottle but I’m beginning to question. Just saying.
This was still good commentary today. I thoroughly enjoyed seeing him at the McDonald’s. That was great!
To use a football analogy: We're up by 7-10 points and it's early in the 4th quarter. Better to be ahead and not behind, but there is still a lot of time on the clock
See Jim Geraghty's column in this morning's NR:
https://www.nationalreview.com/the-morning-jolt/the-chronically-underestimated-kamala-harris/
I am a black swan better, I will go in on Trump winning the popular vote.
Although I will say you got me in trouble with the Butler PA assination attempt hot take, it had nothing to do with MSNBC.
You are, of course, aware that Trump lost the popular vote - and by quite a bit - in both 2016 and 2020.
I guess old P.T. Barnum was right about one being born every minute.
I think you are correct. And hopefully it will end the nonsense about getting rid of the Electoral College.
I've heard rumors that the Dems may be looking at desperation moves such as doing a full-court press in TX and FL to get those 70 electoral votes, and maybe a couple of Senate seats.
Anyone else heard that? The rationale is that TX and FL have the weakest GOP numbers of any red state besides the 7 swing states, plus the two most vulnerable GOP Senate seats.
Of course, this is the equivalent of putting the mortgage payment on one number on the roulette wheel. If you win, you win big, but the odds aren't great that you will win.
The big problems with that plan are that 1) to properly cover both states will require a lot of resources that then won't be deployable elsewhere and 2) the GOP leads, at least on the POTUS side, have been pretty durable and by 5 or more points. The Senate leads have been less durable but are now trending in a GOP direction.
1. Introduce the candidate to voters who don't know a lot about her.
2. Roll out policy positions that contrast favorably against Trump's.
Then (and only then)
3. Hammer away at Trump's negatives.
This is the strategy that I've been predicting from the Harris campaign and if this ad (that started airing a few days ago in "battleground" states) is any indication, that's how they're playing it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-vEE44TNMqE
Strap it down, folks. Things are about to get interesting.
Harris doesn't have policies that she admits to.
I’m praying you are correct n this election prediction!
Democrats and their constituents are the most class-biased and tone-deaf political animals I think we have ever experienced, and I think it is explained by the corruption of the mainstream media and big tech that has weakened Democrat politicians as they are given complete cover and thus don't develop strong enough campaign skills... and hypnotized the Democrat electorate into rage and stupidity to vote for the very people responsible for every critical domestic and global social and economic problem we are dealing with today.
One last general semi-misogynist comment.
The Democrat party is the party of females and girly-men. Females and girly-men have a common challenge of uncontrolled emotions that makes them extra susceptible to outside influence that appeals to their uncontrolled emotions. Their emotional turmoil also causes them to seek affiliation with those that validate their feelings... make them feel less anxious about their lack of control.
Conversely, the Republican party is divided into the neocons and working class, but the commonality is that the Republican electorate is generally independent-minded and more emotionally controlled.
These uncontrolled emotions and pursuit of comrades like them has allowed the Democrats to become powerful in their organization and messaging. They walk and talk like the same duck. However, they have stopped thinking critically... they are so emotionally charged that they cannot punch through the noise to admit they have been wrong about anything. It is just too devastating for them to admit that their out of over-heated emotional energy is a flaw and not some female-power asset. They use their education to weave a protective web of rhetoric that they feel good about as "giving it to those conservative white male brutes"... but that really only prevents them from learning and growing and understanding... causes them to entrench more deeply into their safe space coastal and big city liberal cocoon... that the NYT and MSNBC will gladly validate for them if they keep up their readership and viewership.
I expect Trump and the Republicans to win... and if I was a critical thinking Democrat I would want the same... for the simple reason that the Democrat electorate is broken and needs reform... and the only way that will happen is if there is a resounding defeat in the next election.
At the risk of beating my point into the ground, I feel compelled to push back against this again on more general grounds than those previously offered.
The notion that other kinds of people are fundamentally different from us is really quite dangerous. If "they" are inherently not as good as us, this can justify running roughshod over their rights "for the good of the nation." For example, if there are more of "them" voting for Harris than people voting for Trump . . . .
You and I are not all that different, Frank. We just disagree.
Oh and check the tape on the Harris-Trump debate. After Harris boldly walked over and introduced herself, Trump never had the guts to even look at her for the rest of the night.
Not once. CHECK THE TAPE.
Unwilling to debate Harris again, appear on 60 Minutes or go anywhere else where he might be fact checked . . . or back in the day, answer the call of his country to military service . . . your boy Trump is worse than a girly-man.
He's a coward.
i try not to brag, but this needs to be refuted.
I'm a Democrat and not only am I an Army vet, but coming within one punch of winning the title in the regional Golden Gloves tournament (which punch I not only did not throw, I never even saw it . . . but I digress), I was once the No. 2 amateur light-heavyweight in downstate Illinois. Nobody has ever called me a "girly-man" before . . . at least, not to my face.
You need to reconsider (or maybe even trash) your political assumptions, Frank. They're nonsense.
If that was in any way misogynistic, then I am also misogynistic. The only thing I am not so sure of is Trump and republicans winning. We are dealing with people who operate strictly on emotion, but who are willing to do literally anything to win.
Frank has basically argued that women cannot think and behave rationally. If that's what you think, then you are indeed misogynistic.
Get your people to think that folks on the other side are fundamentally not like them, making them "the other": that's what fascist leaders do. Bringing people together and emphasizing the interests that we have in common is what democratic leaders do.
Clearly neither he nor I mean all women. Sadly, most of them it seems. I am a logical thinker not an emotional one. All one has to do is look at what a majority of women are doing and saying on the subject of this election. Most of it is emotional, feelings related, not grounded in any sort of logic or reality. And it is the democrats who do the dividing so yes it is kind of fascist of them.
On the other hand, if you read what I wrote and think it is the Democrats that I was suggesting to be fascist, then maybe Frank is right about women not being able to think.
I know it is the democrats who are fascist, and I am fully aware that you fail to recognize it. I hope you don't mind that I laugh at your feeble attempt to make me react emotionally with an attempt at an insult.
Oh, Kathy. Are you really so far gone as not to realize that in agreeing that women are too emotional to be President . . . you insulted yourself?
The women for whom abortion is the main issue are thinking quite rationally, there being no question that anti-abortion laws take away from them a right that they used to have. Setting aside the merits of the issue, more rights being better than less rights is only rational.
A guy named Al Campanis once suggested that blacks don't have the "necessities" to manage a major league baseball team. Ever since a black man ran the country well enough for the American people to sign up for a second term, you don't hear that sort of thing too much anymore. So what would also be a rational course for women would be to help put a woman in a position to prove that (except for those involving physical strength) a woman can do any job that a man can do; helping to break the "glass ceiling" not just at the White House, but everywhere else as well.
Women who voluntarily kill their unborn children are not in the least rational to start with. And there was never a constitutional right to do so. The lefts favorite Supreme Court Justice, Ruth Bader Ginsberg said that herself. She openly said it was an issue for the states. Which is where it is now. Sorry, I know nothing about baseball or who said what about it. There are many men who are not white for whom I would happily vote. The one raised by Marxists was not one of them. Nor did he run the country well. As a matter of fact, he was nothing more than the switch that turned on the machine put in place over decades by the rabid leftists which accelerated the downfall of the country as it was founded. And he certainly did the job for which he was trained up. Now we see if we can overcome the machine. I don't think we can. And the emotional woman voter is a great part of that.
I don't have a lot of money in my budget for substack subscriptions--but I subscribe to this one and happily pay for it.
LOVE IT!!! LOVE IT!!! I would love to drive thru a fast food window and see Trump running the show. I think that is great.
"Trump and his supporters are excited. Harris and hers — not to mention the press corps — look like they need a Groupon code to a therapist."
But Erick, aren't they still the enslaved "press" ? :)
Here’s a question I have for Erick.
What if the dems really are cheating and stuffing ballot boxes and sending in fake votes and invalid voters like illegals are voting in mass?
What would anyone be able to do about it ? Honestly. Obama and all of them could come out and say they defrauded the vote and what would anyone be able to do?
The problem with this is it's speculative at best and conspiracy nonsense at worst, like when Trump himself gave the Senate to Democrats with Warnock.
And when Trump wins the Democrats will turn this on you with the same unsubstantiated BS and suddenly for you the election was totally fair, honest, and above board.
Remember 2016 Russia, Russia, Russia? I had a friend who was convicted Trump was the Manchurian candidate and guilty of treason, he listened to CNN and MSNBC.
There are issues, anomalies, and irregularities in every election. Because of our system those issues have not to date swung a national election.
I never said this will happen. I’m just pointing out if it did honestly what could you or I do?
I find your lack or faith disturbing.
Not that Democrats haven't been working very hard to undermine the credibility our institutions.
Show the evidence (Fox News) and if you can't (Fox News) STFU.
Remember 2000 and FL hanging chads? It was delt with in due process.
Sorry Chaz not much clear thinking in that comment. Did JFK call for a recount when several thousand late (as in "dead") children and grandchildren of Irish immigrants voted for him in Cooks Co in 1960?
That's why we need to win by a landslide . . .
Trump working the fries and the drive through window was a political marketing stroke of genius. Sort of hard to imagine Hitler or Stalin doing this …
I happily voted Trump and most fun Courtney Kramer who is running against inept Fani Willis.
Hey man, you got Carson or Leno writers on your staff? The Groupon & ice cream machine lines were priceless!!
We are voting for a chess master who will play the game of life for us. I’m not voting for a date to take to a movie.
Yes, but if were voting for a date to the movies, I'd pick Lauren Boebert.
I’m not voting for a pastor or a cult leader I’m voting for what’s best for my country and my family I’m voting for policies that help the regular people in this country . That’s why I voted Trump / Vance sorry people Trump is not the second coming and he is not the devil He’s the same person he was 30 years ago when Oprah called him my friend
In those days he was just a social climbing panderer trying hard to cover up the fact that his apt complexes rental application systems discriminated against people of color.