This is spot on and what I have been telling my friends for weeks. Dems can ignore the economy because they have already lost as many voters as they will on that issue. Their best strategy going forward is to try to hold or attract voters that put other issues at the top of their priorities.
And Republicans seem content to try to ride into power on the economy alone, and they are missing a real opportunity to really grow. This is the time to have a platform that talks about immigration, healthcare, and reforming social security. An agenda that shows Americans the GOP is capable of governing.
Umm, let's be a little careful with our geometric analogies. Cosine does not cancel out sine per se...
Sine and cosine are not opposite of one another, they are 90 degree shifted in time. While part of a cosine does, in fact, reduce the amplitude of the sine during the cycle, the other part of the cycle, cosine actually adds to the sine to create bigger peaks and deeper valleys 45 degrees shifted either.
I’m praying you are right. However, I don’t think it will be as big a wave as you think. Americans are looking at their phones and not paying attention. Inflation, yes, but Americans are fat and complacent. (Sorry). And Georgians will elect a Marxist governor this time. We haven’t had it bad enough for Americans to change mindsets.
She won’t “beat” him. Georgians will be stupid enough to install her. Georgia is no longer red. I pray I’m wrong but I have zero confidence. I am a life long Georgian who worked on many GOP candidates campaigns. I see a different state now.
Life long GA resident here also. The state has definitely turned purple. It is sad. If the trend continues I will move out of the state when I retire in a few years. I do not recognize the state anymore either.
Interesting analysis. I would only add that what you are writing about is a "normal" election. I don't believe 2022 will be one of those normal elections. I do believe the zeitgeist (or whatever you'd like to call it) bodes ill for the Democratic Party, its messages, and its messengers, despite what a single-issue voter may or may not show up for. The great majority of voters are filled with fear and disgust at the direction of the Democratic Party and my guess is they will display those sentiments in their November vote.
One question I have is how much overlap is there between those that will vote for a party every time and the single issue voters? I would think that the number of pro-abortion voters would also be likely to vote Democrat no matter what.
Let's hope that the Red Wave does come. But then let's pray that the Red Wave does something real, otherwise the country will be lost for real. Personally, I am praying that they have a veto proof majority. Highly unlikely but I want to be sure that the Republicans can be held to account if they do little or nothing. At some point someone needs to clearly outline what they can do, and it has to be more than holding a bunch of hearings about the shiny object of Hunter Biden, as important as that may be. Hunter Biden hearings will not restore sanity to our energy crisis, or put the money back in our wallets and purses that is flowing out at increasing levels every month. Someone needs to outline what they will do...even in the face of a certain Biden Veto, and they need to defund all of these ridiculous presidential pronouncements, even retroactively if possible. Would someone please tell the Republican leaders to tell us what they will do and not just we will not do what they are doing! If the elephant is riding the wave, be sure that it makes it to the beach and walks/runs to dry land and does not simply fall into the water and drown. Charles
You nailed it Charles! If the lazy Republicans would get out and give the voters a positive message about tackling inflation, school choice for education issues and get our energy industry back on track, I think folks would overwhelming vote for them! There needs to be a new Contract with America, positive message for ALL Americans and keep this message going thru 2024!!! Show the country what REAL leadership is all about and do something FOR the people NOT just themselves!!!! Republicans have the chance to lead our country to greatness if they stop being lazy and afraid! Democrats are going to lie about whatever the Republicans put forth so just DO IT and let the results speak for itself!!!! Helping Americans is what they are in Washington to do anyway!
Do now want to be a debbie downer, but the GOP need competant candidates. In GA Senate race we have a poor candidate that is loosing the 5% ever time an add comes on.
With apologies to all of you who think Trump can do no wrong, he has certainly not endorsed great candidates overall. Herschel Walker, although a great football player and gracious person, is a terrible candidate; sadly, there were several Republican candidates in the primary who would have represented Georgia very well in the US Senate. It’s tragic that one of those candidates wasn’t elected to run against Warnock. I worry that Republicans will blow their opportunity to control the House by a large majority and to recapture the majority in the Senate.
This is spot on and what I have been telling my friends for weeks. Dems can ignore the economy because they have already lost as many voters as they will on that issue. Their best strategy going forward is to try to hold or attract voters that put other issues at the top of their priorities.
And Republicans seem content to try to ride into power on the economy alone, and they are missing a real opportunity to really grow. This is the time to have a platform that talks about immigration, healthcare, and reforming social security. An agenda that shows Americans the GOP is capable of governing.
Umm, let's be a little careful with our geometric analogies. Cosine does not cancel out sine per se...
Sine and cosine are not opposite of one another, they are 90 degree shifted in time. While part of a cosine does, in fact, reduce the amplitude of the sine during the cycle, the other part of the cycle, cosine actually adds to the sine to create bigger peaks and deeper valleys 45 degrees shifted either.
https://www.chegg.com/homework-help/questions-and-answers/addition-sine-cosine-consider-following-x-sin-x-g-x-cost-h-x-f-x-g-x-graphs-three-function-q35307813
The analogy Erick uses is true for part of the cycle, actually accentuates the problem the other part of the cycle.
That said, if one adds a sine and an arcsine, one truly does cancel out the other ;-)
Just being nerdy...
I’m praying you are right. However, I don’t think it will be as big a wave as you think. Americans are looking at their phones and not paying attention. Inflation, yes, but Americans are fat and complacent. (Sorry). And Georgians will elect a Marxist governor this time. We haven’t had it bad enough for Americans to change mindsets.
Do you really think Stacy Abrams will beat Brian Kemp?
She won’t “beat” him. Georgians will be stupid enough to install her. Georgia is no longer red. I pray I’m wrong but I have zero confidence. I am a life long Georgian who worked on many GOP candidates campaigns. I see a different state now.
Life long GA resident here also. The state has definitely turned purple. It is sad. If the trend continues I will move out of the state when I retire in a few years. I do not recognize the state anymore either.
More and more Blacks ain't buying the crazy, guys
Interesting analysis. I would only add that what you are writing about is a "normal" election. I don't believe 2022 will be one of those normal elections. I do believe the zeitgeist (or whatever you'd like to call it) bodes ill for the Democratic Party, its messages, and its messengers, despite what a single-issue voter may or may not show up for. The great majority of voters are filled with fear and disgust at the direction of the Democratic Party and my guess is they will display those sentiments in their November vote.
One question I have is how much overlap is there between those that will vote for a party every time and the single issue voters? I would think that the number of pro-abortion voters would also be likely to vote Democrat no matter what.
Let's hope that the Red Wave does come. But then let's pray that the Red Wave does something real, otherwise the country will be lost for real. Personally, I am praying that they have a veto proof majority. Highly unlikely but I want to be sure that the Republicans can be held to account if they do little or nothing. At some point someone needs to clearly outline what they can do, and it has to be more than holding a bunch of hearings about the shiny object of Hunter Biden, as important as that may be. Hunter Biden hearings will not restore sanity to our energy crisis, or put the money back in our wallets and purses that is flowing out at increasing levels every month. Someone needs to outline what they will do...even in the face of a certain Biden Veto, and they need to defund all of these ridiculous presidential pronouncements, even retroactively if possible. Would someone please tell the Republican leaders to tell us what they will do and not just we will not do what they are doing! If the elephant is riding the wave, be sure that it makes it to the beach and walks/runs to dry land and does not simply fall into the water and drown. Charles
You nailed it Charles! If the lazy Republicans would get out and give the voters a positive message about tackling inflation, school choice for education issues and get our energy industry back on track, I think folks would overwhelming vote for them! There needs to be a new Contract with America, positive message for ALL Americans and keep this message going thru 2024!!! Show the country what REAL leadership is all about and do something FOR the people NOT just themselves!!!! Republicans have the chance to lead our country to greatness if they stop being lazy and afraid! Democrats are going to lie about whatever the Republicans put forth so just DO IT and let the results speak for itself!!!! Helping Americans is what they are in Washington to do anyway!
Do now want to be a debbie downer, but the GOP need competant candidates. In GA Senate race we have a poor candidate that is loosing the 5% ever time an add comes on.
With apologies to all of you who think Trump can do no wrong, he has certainly not endorsed great candidates overall. Herschel Walker, although a great football player and gracious person, is a terrible candidate; sadly, there were several Republican candidates in the primary who would have represented Georgia very well in the US Senate. It’s tragic that one of those candidates wasn’t elected to run against Warnock. I worry that Republicans will blow their opportunity to control the House by a large majority and to recapture the majority in the Senate.
One can only hope they become increasingly shrill and over-the-top to cause other voters to recoil in horror and VOTE.
Change the graphic from "Red" to "Crimson" and it foretells another title for Title Town! :)
Great stats and logic--fantastic explanation. Occum's Razor: out of many possible explanations, the simplest tends to be the most correct!
Loved the graphic/GIF!