i think there are only 2 options for the democrats: replace Joe with (fill-in the blank...?) or repeat the nefarious manipulation of the 2020 voting process. Or both.
The 2016 polls were surprisingly on target. If you looked at the RealClearPolitics aggregator of polls, you see that they rightly predicted that Hillary would win the popular vote. They called 47 of 50 states correctly. Only three states "surprised" anyone: Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. If you looked more closely, furthermore, both Michigan and Wisconsin were toss up states, with Hillary's lead smaller than the average margin of error of the aggregated polls. Instead of winning by a razor-thin margin, she lost by a razor-thin margin. Only in Pennsylvania did her aggregate lead exceed the aggregate average margin of error, and only by enough to rate Pennsylvania as "leans Hillary," so it was the only real surprise of the evening. Remember to that it was the state where she told a coal miner to his face that his job had to go away. So maybe not quite so big a surprise.
I look at the polls the morning of the 2016 election and thought, "Trump could win this thing." So many people, especially on the left, had their impressions set months earlier, and entirely by the national polls, and thus they were taken by surprise.
This time around, by the way, Trump is actually slightly head in the national polling, by an average of 2.7 points. Because of the Electoral College and the current political bent of the individual states, I think it's virtually impossible for a Democrat to win the Electoral College while losing the popular vote, what with the two biggest Democrat states, NY and CA, tilting heavily to the Democrats, but the two biggest Republican states, TX and FL, much more closely divided.
Looking at the battlefield states individually, moreover, we see that he has real leads in 6 of the 7 states, and even a fractional lead in the 7th (Wisconsin +0.6). In Nevada, which he lost in 2016 by about 2.4 points, he's actually 6.2 points ahead now. Of course, things could change between now and November, but the current polling suggests that Trump is headed for victory in 2024.
I've been saying for 30 years that in any close race, expect the Democrats to cheat their way to victory. I saw it happen in close race after close race in both Iowa and Virginia. Democrats would hold back the ballots in the state capital 9 (and in Virginia the DC suburbs) and then at the last minute turn in enough ballots to flip the election.
They mounted a monumental cheating effort in 2020, yet the Trump still did better than the polls projected. The national polls showed Biden beating him by 7.2 points, but Biden won by only 4.5 points. In the average of the battleground states, the polls showed Biden winning by 2.3 points, but he won by only 0.03 points. Trump currently isn't simply doing better than he did when he lost in 2020, or he's doing better than he did when he won in 2016. Despite the cheating too, moreover, he did better than the polls suggested. I'd say something more than just cheat on the 2020 scale needs to happen between now and November to keep Trump out of the White House. ☺️
One needs to wonder… They’re not worried??? Fix already in? Lawfare with an extra dose of judicial activism. The next pandemic, this time bird flu? Forced relaxed voting standards, combined with denial of voting oversight with projecting accusations of nazism and racism! Trump and down ballot Republicans need to win by commanding majorities, then get their crap together! Do it right, not screw it up and snatch defeat from the jaws of victory!
Trump will be up in WIs MI and Penn But not enough to overcome the midnight charade and Biden winds those by JUST enough.
What you have then is a tie. 269 to 269.
This then sets up for it to go to the individual states by house delegate vote. A person then only has to win 26 states. The GOP owns house majority in 32 states. However….. some of those states area 9-8 split like NC. But then there is some blue states like VA where republicans have more house members than the Dems.
Yet there is a huge “BUT for”.
While all Dems will 100% vote for Biden. Not all republicans are assured of voting for Trump. Which sets up some upsets in red states like NC and even GA.
This is how the Dems steal it at the last second. They convince enough squishy republicans to sway it to Biden.
Biden wins.
So Trump doesn’t just need those three swing states. He needs one of those rust belt states and all are ruled by dem governors and SoS as well as all have no ID and unsigned unsolicited mail in ballots. Good luck with that. Only hope is somehow VA goes red. Fat chance.
They will NOT let Trump win. And it’s going to setup civil unrest like you’ve never seen since the civil war.
I don't agree that they won't let Trump win, but I do agree they will apply every trick to stop a legitimate win. We have to be smarter and work harder, but can't give in to hopelessness. That's given us two DNC senators in Georgia we're stuck with 'cause a number of republicans couldn't bother to vote.
We just finished watching PBS Master Piece Theater, “Mr Bates vs The Post Office”, a four episode streaming show. It's a true story of a 20 year scandal in Britain still being worked out with powerful interests stomping on very small people. There’s a level of dishonesty and amoral activities that are inflicted upon us by powerful elites, prevalent across the world. I know what Erick believes but I believe the DNC elites and others wouldn’t care a bit of doing whatever they could to get away with turning an election their way…to save ‘democracy’. We must vote, of course, and be on our toes for shenanigans, because if they can’t win fairly, they’ll try and do what they can get away with. We have to overwhelm them with lots of honest votes, by real, living, citizens.
Biden’s not winning Michigan and everyone knows he created the inflation and he has never run a business or a company. He doesn’t have the knowledge and nor does Obama. No one wants Kamala or Gavin Newsom.
i think there are only 2 options for the democrats: replace Joe with (fill-in the blank...?) or repeat the nefarious manipulation of the 2020 voting process. Or both.
The 2016 polls were surprisingly on target. If you looked at the RealClearPolitics aggregator of polls, you see that they rightly predicted that Hillary would win the popular vote. They called 47 of 50 states correctly. Only three states "surprised" anyone: Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. If you looked more closely, furthermore, both Michigan and Wisconsin were toss up states, with Hillary's lead smaller than the average margin of error of the aggregated polls. Instead of winning by a razor-thin margin, she lost by a razor-thin margin. Only in Pennsylvania did her aggregate lead exceed the aggregate average margin of error, and only by enough to rate Pennsylvania as "leans Hillary," so it was the only real surprise of the evening. Remember to that it was the state where she told a coal miner to his face that his job had to go away. So maybe not quite so big a surprise.
I look at the polls the morning of the 2016 election and thought, "Trump could win this thing." So many people, especially on the left, had their impressions set months earlier, and entirely by the national polls, and thus they were taken by surprise.
This time around, by the way, Trump is actually slightly head in the national polling, by an average of 2.7 points. Because of the Electoral College and the current political bent of the individual states, I think it's virtually impossible for a Democrat to win the Electoral College while losing the popular vote, what with the two biggest Democrat states, NY and CA, tilting heavily to the Democrats, but the two biggest Republican states, TX and FL, much more closely divided.
Looking at the battlefield states individually, moreover, we see that he has real leads in 6 of the 7 states, and even a fractional lead in the 7th (Wisconsin +0.6). In Nevada, which he lost in 2016 by about 2.4 points, he's actually 6.2 points ahead now. Of course, things could change between now and November, but the current polling suggests that Trump is headed for victory in 2024.
If I've said it once, I've said it a thousand times: November is a long way off, and never underestimate the Democrat cheat machine.
I've been saying for 30 years that in any close race, expect the Democrats to cheat their way to victory. I saw it happen in close race after close race in both Iowa and Virginia. Democrats would hold back the ballots in the state capital 9 (and in Virginia the DC suburbs) and then at the last minute turn in enough ballots to flip the election.
They mounted a monumental cheating effort in 2020, yet the Trump still did better than the polls projected. The national polls showed Biden beating him by 7.2 points, but Biden won by only 4.5 points. In the average of the battleground states, the polls showed Biden winning by 2.3 points, but he won by only 0.03 points. Trump currently isn't simply doing better than he did when he lost in 2020, or he's doing better than he did when he won in 2016. Despite the cheating too, moreover, he did better than the polls suggested. I'd say something more than just cheat on the 2020 scale needs to happen between now and November to keep Trump out of the White House. ☺️
The Democrats are today working on the cheating plan and the Republicans are doing nothing to investigate it and stop it.
And this. https://x.com/VDHanson/status/1790156802296090684
Best summary yet of Joe Biden's record. ...and i only had to look up a couple of words. i love VDH's style.
That pretty much says it all about the entire Biden charade.
One needs to wonder… They’re not worried??? Fix already in? Lawfare with an extra dose of judicial activism. The next pandemic, this time bird flu? Forced relaxed voting standards, combined with denial of voting oversight with projecting accusations of nazism and racism! Trump and down ballot Republicans need to win by commanding majorities, then get their crap together! Do it right, not screw it up and snatch defeat from the jaws of victory!
The dems won’t just sit back and lose.
What I think will happen…
Trump wins NV GA and AZ.
Trump will be up in WIs MI and Penn But not enough to overcome the midnight charade and Biden winds those by JUST enough.
What you have then is a tie. 269 to 269.
This then sets up for it to go to the individual states by house delegate vote. A person then only has to win 26 states. The GOP owns house majority in 32 states. However….. some of those states area 9-8 split like NC. But then there is some blue states like VA where republicans have more house members than the Dems.
Yet there is a huge “BUT for”.
While all Dems will 100% vote for Biden. Not all republicans are assured of voting for Trump. Which sets up some upsets in red states like NC and even GA.
This is how the Dems steal it at the last second. They convince enough squishy republicans to sway it to Biden.
Biden wins.
So Trump doesn’t just need those three swing states. He needs one of those rust belt states and all are ruled by dem governors and SoS as well as all have no ID and unsigned unsolicited mail in ballots. Good luck with that. Only hope is somehow VA goes red. Fat chance.
They will NOT let Trump win. And it’s going to setup civil unrest like you’ve never seen since the civil war.
I don't agree that they won't let Trump win, but I do agree they will apply every trick to stop a legitimate win. We have to be smarter and work harder, but can't give in to hopelessness. That's given us two DNC senators in Georgia we're stuck with 'cause a number of republicans couldn't bother to vote.
Does anyone trust the democrats to leave the election to chance? I certainly don’t.
We just finished watching PBS Master Piece Theater, “Mr Bates vs The Post Office”, a four episode streaming show. It's a true story of a 20 year scandal in Britain still being worked out with powerful interests stomping on very small people. There’s a level of dishonesty and amoral activities that are inflicted upon us by powerful elites, prevalent across the world. I know what Erick believes but I believe the DNC elites and others wouldn’t care a bit of doing whatever they could to get away with turning an election their way…to save ‘democracy’. We must vote, of course, and be on our toes for shenanigans, because if they can’t win fairly, they’ll try and do what they can get away with. We have to overwhelm them with lots of honest votes, by real, living, citizens.
I worry that they will use the Clinton way of dealing with a problem.
The only bounce for Joey from Scranton is his head bouncing off the steps on Air Force One this guy is a disaster period
😂😂😂
Biden’s not winning Michigan and everyone knows he created the inflation and he has never run a business or a company. He doesn’t have the knowledge and nor does Obama. No one wants Kamala or Gavin Newsom.