I Just Don't Know
I don’t know. I just don’t know. There is a lot of bravado from a lot of people who do not live in Georgia assuring me that Herschel Walker is still going to win after the allegations he paid for an abortion thirteen years ago. I think it is still possible. I think it is less probable than two days ago. Two days ago, I was convinced he would win. Now? I keep going back to the number 27,967.
There are five groups of voters, and four of them matter in this election.
The first are those voters voting for Raphael Warnock, the incumbent Democrat, either because they like him or hate Herschel Walker and want to stop him.
The second are those voters voting for Herschel Walker because either they like him or they hate Warnock and want him out of office.
The third group, the one that does not matter, are the libertarians and possible protest voters — they may cause a runoff but otherwise are dismissable. They are protest voters, and they could throw the race into a runoff, but that would just get us back to Warnock v. Walker.
The fourth and fifth groups matter most of all.
The fourth group is the group that hates the Democrats and wants to hold them accountable but isn’t sure they can stomach a vote for Walker. But they’ll come down to a simple calculation — Herschel Walker allegedly paid for an abortion thirteen years ago, and Raphael Warnock wants you and me to pay for them right now. This is the voter who doesn’t like either man, wishes there was a better choice, but is going to go vote for Walker because the voter is voting to hold Democrats accountable for the economy, crime, and the progressive insanity out there. Some are economic, and some are cultural. This group usually votes for the outsider to hold the insider accountable. This group is voting for a party, not a man, and their party is Republican this time.
The fifth group is 27,967 voters. In 2020, 27,967 voters voted in the election in Georgia and refused to vote for anyone for President. This happens every year. In 2016, the number was double that. More people refused to choose between Clinton and Trump than between Biden and Trump. Of those who would not vote for Clinton or Trump, a sizeable portion voted for Biden to return us to normal and Biden got hijacked by the left of his party. Some of them may move to group four as a result.
Here’s why I don’t know what is going to happen.
I don’t know if group four is bigger than group five in 2022.
Will more people who hate both candidates go vote or stay home?
Will Walker persuade those voters in group five to move to group four?
27,967 is not a lot of people. But Joe Biden only won Georgia by slightly more than 11,000 votes. Had just half of those people who did not vote gone to vote for Trump, Trump would have won Georgia.
Walker needs to get those people to vote.
He has a plausible path forward, but time is running out to make his case. He has to do so aggressively, on television and radio, at a maximum quantity of ads for everyone possible to see and hear them.
His ad message has to be that Democrats are attacking him and his family to avoid talking about what they’ve done to your family and community.
His ad message has to be that Democrats are telling a damnable lie about him from thirteen years ago, so you don’t know Raphael Warnock wants taxpayer-funded abortion on demand until birth.
His ad message has to be the “Reverend” Warnock has chosen to define Herschel Walker by his darkest days that he has overcome and rejected the very foundational belief of his supposed faith — redemption.
His ad message needs to be hard, dominate the airwaves, and get people back to focusing on the economy and, especially now, crime.
He has to do it this week. He has to lock this in before the weekend — before the weekend shows people watch before church keep talking about an abortion from thirteen years ago without showing Walker’s response.
It is possible, but not probable that Walker wins now. In normal times, those 27,967 voters who sat out 2020 would sit out 2022 and hand the race to Warnock.
But in focusing on an abortion from 2013, the Democrats hope you don’t focus on your 401(K) and the random violence down your street. If Walker can make a hard, aggressive pivot in that direction, maybe he can save himself.
At this point, Republicans are just holding on because they have no other choice. The Georgia Republicans are ready for it to be over. They hear the bravado of talk radio hosts and overnight Fox hosts assuring them everything is okay and Walker can win.
But they remember just two years ago 27,967 voters skipped the top race on the ballot and handed victory to Joe Biden. This year, the Warnock v. Walker race is the top race on the ballot. This year, Georgia Republicans and I just don’t know how many voters will skip the race versus how many will hold their nose and vote. So I just don’t know if Walker can win now. We will find out in five weeks.