I Told You So
I’ve been talking about this so much on the radio and here that several listeners and readers complained. I’d like to say now I told you so. The wind the Democrats thought was at their back turned out to be an economic hurricane building that will sink their ship of state.
In the Real Clear Politics polling average, there are now only three polls that give Democrats a lead, two of which are still registered voter polls. Five of the remaining six have a GOP lead and one has a tie.
The CBS News Battleground tracker had a reduced lead for the GOP to 1 point and is now back to 2. The more curious one is the Harvard/Harris poll. The bottom line number is not as interesting as the trend.
The Harvard/Harris poll captured the full shift over time that every other poll saw. In March, it had a GOP lead of six percent. By the end of July, the race had collapsed for the GOP into a tie with the Democrats. By September, the Democrats were leading nationally by two points. Now, the poll has swung back to the GOP, putting the party back to a six point lead.
Across polls, voters have high anxiety about the economy, crime, and immigration. The voters most concerned about the first are already leaning Republican. Now, the GOP is closing with crime and border security to persuade remaining voters. They timed their arguments perfectly.
Democrats got distracted by the Supreme Court. They threw themselves into an abortion argument, which will still serve to mitigate their losses in some Democrat areas of the country. But with swing voters in swing states and districts, that message takes the Democrats off their game.
On the Senate front, Dr. Oz continues to close into John Fetterman’s lead. Fetterman still leads but is inside the margin of error.
In Nevada, both Adam Laxalt for the Senate and Joe Lombardo for the GOP are ahead in the polls, both inside the margin. That is a good sign for the GOP when their gubernatorial and senate candidates lead in Nevada concurrently.
In Georgia, Herschel Walker stunned Democrats on Friday night with a strong debate performance. Reporters were shocked. I can offer no comment and just quote Democrats on the debate. Here’s one of the leading Democrats in Georgia:
When a prominent Georgia Democrat shifts to “the debates don’t really matter,” you know Walker had an impressive night.
The danger for Democrats is that Walker’s performance minimizes ticket-splitting. He reassured independent voters who like Kemp that he, too, is up for the job. Outside GOP groups have poured last-minute money into Georgia to pound Raphael Warnock for standing with Joe Biden and ruining the economy.
Now, Barack Obama is headed to Georgia to campaign with the Democrats. It’s a pretty damning indictment on Biden that he is persona non grata. As much as Democrats have Obama can increase black voter turnout, late polling in Georgia shows Kemp winning a significant share of the black vote, particularly among young black voters.
The Senate remains at play, and the GOP trend lines suggest even if they lose Pennsylvania, which is possible though not probable, the GOP can pick up Nevada and Georgia.
As the economy has soured, Joe Biden is eating ice cream while declaring the economy strong. The winds at the Democrats’ back have turned into a storm that will sink them.
We are 21 days away from the election. If the polling is right, Democrats will not have a good night. If the polling is, for the fourth straight polling cycle undercounting Republicans, Democrats will have a very, very bad night.
Here's an easy prediction IF the red wave is true. Election night across the nation ballrooms in swanky, and not so swanky hotels can be heard overflowing with laughter and post election glee. Just under the raucous laughter, "Happy Days Are Here Again" can be heard playing on an old tired sound system pulled out of a dusty, dirty, hotel housekeeping closet. On the news programs in January, or maybe before, all we will here is, "The Republicans are in charge of everything but the White House, and JUST LOOK AT HOW TERRIBLE THINGS ARE!" The 2024 campaigns will run on the same issues as the 2022 campaigns and the media's talking point will be that Republicans didn't do anything in their two years in power. Gridlock!
(Erick, feel free to improve upon this for an upcoming monolog.)
"If the polling is right, Democrats will not have a good night."
True may be bad night for Dems, but don't ignore the month following the election when all the mail-in ballots magically appear from cemeteries across the nation ;-).
Only half-kidding. Some states have come down on the various "anonymous" ballot box efforts used so effectively in 2020, others still allow/support that mischief-ridden opportunity. I'm not a "stolen election" guy myself, just pointing out that with narrow margins we face in Senate races, it doesn't take too much late "ballot stuffing" to change outcomes.