US foreign policy that fails to understand and factor-in Christian and Islamic eschatology is doomed at worst and ineffective at best. A baseline of absolute military superiority (which requires technological superiority) is essential for security...and peace.
It is hard for the US to be a "world Leader" when we have no serious leadership. Biden is driven by his base. He wants votes and is willing to chastise Israel on the world stage in an attempt to appease the anti semites in his base. The Democratic party is now pushed by a Progressive base which is completely pro Hamas. The Republicans are not much better. There are Republicans in the House which are embarrassing at best, MTG, and forcing moderates to have a second look at Dementia Joe Biden for some form of stability. These Republicans would rather have their time in front of a camera for fund raising while damaging the Republican party. I am having a hard time pointing out a real , strong, national leader in the US today.
I wish I could say we know what the Israeli's did last night over Iran. We don't. But I suspect the F35 played a key role. We don't know what weapon system was delivered by the F35. We don't know how many. We don't know the flight path.
What we do know is that the targets were in Central Iran, which is "far" from Israel. Call it about 1000 miles. Or 200 miles round trip. How long did the F35 loiter to acquire its target? What is the combat radius of the F35.? Did the F35 refuel during the mission? The 1000 mile distance is over Jordan and Iraq. Can the F35 flyover these countries without being seen? There are a lot of questions one must ask and answer to plan this mission.
I think one also needs to understand what the F35 can do. Other than being stealthy and flying a long way, it is also a sensor platform. This Year the US enters high volume production of the PrSM (Precision strike missile). The PrSM is the next generation of the HIMARS which is the next generation of the MLRS (a 1980s weapon system). An F35 can fly over the enemy, identify a target, relay location to the PrSM and launch. This takes just a few minutes from the F35 identifing the target to the PrsM hitting the target. On a dynamic battlefield, mobility is restricted. You cannot "stop" and refuel or change the oil for a period of minutes.
I assume the Israelis hit a fixed target in Iran (missile production facility) that is difficult to reconstitute and stops Iran from producing more missiles. Do you target production facilities or production personnel? Both? What do the lawyers tell you is a legal target?
AI powered drones introduces many more questions, which makes an opponent's life far more uncomfortable.
I think we can tell our southern rural men and women to stay home and build many more weapons to arm the forces of liberty. We don't need to send our sons and daughters to fight Iran or Russia or China. We just need the determination to arm ourselves and our allies to confront the forces of liberty.
By the way, Iran should never sell another barrel of Oil or Cubic foot of gas. Now if the government is overthrown and Iran regains its liberty from the clutches of religious lunacy, then maybe they can sell some oil. This is the simplest and cheapest form of deterrence.
I didn’t care for Gen. Colin Powell’s politics but his military views were great.
Go to war only when you have to.
Throw in the kitchen sink and make it a short war. (No generational wars)
Have an end plan before you start.
In 1914 everyone thought that the war would be over quickly. It wasn’t. The next big battle would decide the outcome. It didn’t.
I seem to be the only one who mentions that the Iranians await the coming of their Messiah, the 12th Iman. He can only return if the world is covered with blood. They are trying their best to make it happen.
Re: the Mahdi, i don't think most politicians take that fact seriously...any more than they believe what the Imams publicly declare. That's a strategic mistake, imho.
Not everyone who wants to de-escalate these conflicts or who has questions about US involvement is isolationist or anti-Semitic. Inserting such accusations shuts down important discussions. "Anti-Semitic" has become the new "racist" or "homophobic" or "TDS" that gets thrown into a conversation to end it. Ending debate isolates people and radicalizes them, instead of giving them the opportunity to change their minds. I'm worried where this country is headed when we can't talk civilly and reasonably about the most important of issues.
Contrary to popular belief, it is possible to (1) question the actions of the government of Israel without being anti-Semitic or (2) fully support Israel without accusing everyone who disagrees with you of being anti-Semitic. There are plenty of valid and convincing pro-Israel arguments to be made. Try making those without accusing people of hating an entire race of people. You may change someone's mind.
I am not clear on your response, but be clear with this.
There is overwhelming evidence of past and current antisemitism in this world. I don't want to prejudge every comment made by media and leaders around the globe, but the probability of antisemitism is high.
Also, we should not nitpick a tiny country trying to defend itself from actual bombs that are being launched at its citizens by a large country hellbent on its ultimate destruction.
I fully agree that there is anti-Semitism in the world and that it is increasing and usually obvious when it's present. I also largely support Israel, though I recognize that no country's government is perfect. I just think Israel supporters shouldn't accuse all those who don't support Israel of being anti-Semetic. Many are. Some aren't. My belief is that shutting down debate is actually increasing anti-Semitism, which will only hurt Jews and Israel. Batya Ungar-Sargon, a supporter of Israel, is one of the best Jewish voices on this subject.
It has always struck me as weird how Israel is just expected to tolerate everyone else in the region firing rockets and missiles in their direction like it's the weather. The fear that Israeli retaliation against Iran could provoke a larger regional war ignores that a larger regional war is already happening. The West, primarily under Biden and Obama, have been operating under the assumption that if we treat Iran with diplomacy, a nuclear deal, and send them gobs of cash that somehow moderates will take over and Iran will become an ally. In order to maintain the delusion, we ignore/let them off the hook for the funding of terror proxies throughout the region and continue to send them money despite their support for Hamas leading up to the 10/7 attack. 10/7 is a wake-up call for the Israelis because their national survival is at stake and they can't afford to suffer such delusions as the rest of the West. The Israelis can see down the road at not just the precedent set by Iran being allowed to fire missiles and drones at their territory, but how the region will change if/when Iran gets a nuclear weapon. Our leadership needs to get with the program, stop catering to the pro-Hamas Leftist psychopaths on college campus. We need to support Israel and do what needs to be done with Iran in order to prevent WWIII.
Jonah Goldberg wrote a piece for The Dispatch that used that same metaphor - that Israelis treat the constant bombardment as bad weather, and worse, the world expects them to. I was struck by what an accurate description that is (and found myself a bit stunned that I'd never thought of it that way.) No other nation is asked to just take that kind of abuse. They need, and deserve, our support.
Concise and to the point, that is one of the reasons I enjoy your website and analysis. I believe that our country is growing weak. Our enemies are gathering their forces around us. At the same time, internally, our morals, public trust, and pride in our country are destroyed by the hate America First crowd. If the U.S. fails, the world will go dark and may never recover.
I wholeheartedly agree. The only thing I would like to see is spending our money wisely. Stop just throwing cash at everything. Help Ukraine’s military with military stuff and strategy. What is our money buying? Is there an ammunition store somewhere over there? Just asking.
We loan a patriot system to Ukraine. The system consists of the radar system and missile batteries (I think 4). These are spread around a few square miles. Yes, the enemy can see the radar because it can sense the radar signal. But it cannot see the batteries. Severa months ago, you may have heard about 5 or 10 Russian planes being shoot down. What I bel3eive the Ukrainians did was position patriot batteries "close" to the front line and ambushed Russian planes. Unfortunately, the prevalence of Russian drones identified some of the patriot batteries and two were destroyed. But we did shoot down 2 of the Radar planes. I think Ukraine has used all its patriot missiles. They need more. So, we give them more which they agree to pay us back and we use the value to give to our domestic producers to replace the ones we gave to Ukraine. Maybe Ukraine will pay us back. Maybe we forgive the loan. I think Europe has agreed to guarantee the loan. Not sure of all the terms of the deal.
IN the early 1980s the US Army built the MLRS (multiple launch rocket system). It is now called HIMARS, which is a wheeled vehicle versus the tracked MLRS. In the 1980s we built the ATACMS. An ATACM is a larger version of the MLRS round. ThE MLRS had two banks of 4 rounds. The ATACMS fit in the space of the 4 MLRS rounds. The ATACMS could fly farther and more accurately. Now we are building the PrSM, smaller than the ATACMS with greater range and greater accuracy (harder to jam by the way). We don't build the ATACMS anymore and we have 1000s that have reached their expiration date and are scheduled to be dismantled. We could send them to Ukraine, but Biden did not want to provoke Russia. Here is another tidbit. We stopped making Stinger decades ago. A lot of the Stingers did not work. But we rehired the guys (now in their 70s) to go back into work and teach the young guys how to dismantle and "repair" the old Stingers. I think they were able to repair about 70% of the 1000 or so expired stingers. Now they are restarting the production line with new parts to replace the ones no longer able to be produced.
For many years the US used the arsenal concept. These were government facilities that produce weapons (rifles, bullets, cannons etc.) You may know of Harpers Ferry and John Browns raid. He was an abolitionist and he raided the Harper Ferry arsenal. When we brought Von Braun and his rocket scientists to the US in the late 1940s, we eventually set them up to work at Redstone Arsenal (a chemical warfare plant) that was converted to a missile plant. It became home to the US Army Missile Command and Marshall Space flight Center. The facilities at MSFC were designed to produce all the Saturn Launch Vehicles. But Congress in the 1960s saw all this money being spent and moved away from the Arsenal concept and moved to a private industry concept of weapons production.
My point is we have to rethink how we maintain and supply the forces of liberty in a world facing the tyranny of Russia, China, Iran and North Korea. BTW Japan has 21 Patriot Systesm to protect itself from the NK threat.
The West has a lot of weapons lying around that we could put to good use in Ukraine to hopefully stop Russian aggression and bleed them dry so to speak. The West has lots of arm producers that can be pressed into a higher level of production. This is complex but doable if People focus on the threat.
But the really smart thing to do is prevent Iran from selling oil and gas, allowing domestic producers great liberty to produce energy (and build modular nuclear reactors) to allow the west to isolate Russia and especially Iran. But climate change and the rise in global temps is the only existential threat the left will devote significant resources. The left is willing to empower Russia and Iran and Venezuela etc. in order to drive the west to a no CO2 future (a much poor future BTW).
Artillery ammunition for their big guns to try and match Russia. Anti-aircraft and anti-missile systems to defend their cities and infrastructure against Russia. Armored vehicles since Ukraine doesn’t do “meat wave” attacks like the Russians. Much more, mostly built here and Western Europe.
Ukraine was doing a pretty good job and bombing the Russian refineries until Austin told them to stop. It was interfering with the price of oil and making gas prices rise here at home and that would make Biden look bad come November.
Erick, I thought NATO was formed to defend Europe against Russia. Surely they should care more about this than us. We are more in debt than any other country and technically broke.
I believe and I could be wrong, but technically we are loaning the money to Ukraine. The loan is guaranteed by Europe (whatever that means). IN turn the money is then transferred back to the US to our Arms producers to replenish our ammunition that was given to Ukraine.
The reason we are broke has nothing to do with Ukraine our military spending. It has to do with profligate spending on social welfare programs and stupid "investments" by our federal government.
Would NATO be better defensively if Ukraine was entirely taken over by Russia? What about Moldova?
All I know is what was stated in various news broadcasts. The deal is simple. We transfer munitions to Ukraine; we book the value. This is the loan value. The EU guarantees the loan. Then we take this value and use it to buy new munitions to replenish the stockpile.
This is the difference between the real world and lawyers, accountants and politicians trying to conform to various rules, regulations and laws. I hate it but that is the way the world works.
But Ai P. is right. When my dad arrived in Korea in 1975 as an Aviation battalion commander, he told his troops to take everything out of the hanger. The stuff we need for battle goes in one of those three trailers. Everything else we get rid of. They found 9 landing light systems. The battalion only needs one. They also found 3 brand new engines for a helicopter the Army stopped flying over 10 years earlier. So ,my dad said, send the landing light systems back to Division. Send the three engines to the South Korean unit down the road. Why did he give the engine to the Koreans. Because they still flew the helicopter. A sergeant protested. Sir, I have to record this and send it back to the depot. My dad looked at him and said, "Sergeant, if those engines are not on the back of a truck in one hour headed out the gate to the Koreans, I am writing you up." My dad's logic is simple. I am on the DMZ, with a country (the North Koreans) that have agreed to a cessation of hostilities (technically north and south Korea are still at war) and I might have to be in the battlefield in 24 hours. I would rather my allies have three brand new engines in their helicopters fighting with me.
The Army had no idea they had 8 excess landing light systems at this battalion base. And they sure did not know these three engines were there either.
The US needs to clean out the closet, send all the excess stuff we have lying around to the Ukrainians. And get on with confronting the tyranny threatening our friends and allies. Letting 1000 or so 20 year old ATACMS sit around waiting to be dismantled is just stupid.
All of the former Warsaw Pact countries in NATO are having a great garage sale handing off old Soviet defense hardware to Ukraine. They'll be restocking with NATO-standard hardware, most of it made in 'Merica by 'Mericans.
Btw, England made is last WWII payment to the US Treasury in 2006. The US has often give weapons to allies on the basis of a loan. We are doing the same with Ukraine. But I have not seen the agreement in writing.
Yes, Russia has an advantage in manpower and logistics (kind of). Ukraine is limited in manpower and production capacity for arms. But Germany is not that far from Ukraine. Europe could send lots of weapons to Ukraine. The question is how much of Ukraine sovereignty is the West willing to sacrifice. All of Ukraine? Everything west of the Dnepr River? We have not lost a single American soldier in this conflict. We have spent maybe $100 billion in weapons we had stockpiled to protect NATO from a Russian attack. This money was spent in the US (mostly) to build these systems. If Ukraine wants to fight and defend their liberty, is the US willing to watch them die? In 2022, we could build 10,000 155 mm shells a month. Now I think we have expanded production to 20,000. Do you know how many 155 mm shells we fired in Afghanistan? More than you think. The US has plenty of ATACMS and various other 80s/90s weapons we are unlikely to ever use given the impact of drones on the modern battlefield. The Army clearly knows the concept of combined arms maneuver is in need of significant revision. The point is we can sit back and shrug our shoulders and let the forces of tyranny overwhelm a nation that is fighting and dying trying to survive. Or we can give them the weapons we won't use (the 1000's of ATACMS) and use the money (the billions we are spending to replace the weapons we are sending to Ukraine) to build the new weapons (the PrSM) to fill our ammunition stores.
When my father died in 2012, we started to clean out stuff. We found boxes of 45 caliber rounds he brought home after he retired from the army. These 45 cal rounds were decades old--severely tarnished. Would you put them in your pistol to work on your shooting accuracy? My cousin said, hell no am I putting that in my gun. But if we gave it to Ukraine? They use it in a heartbeat. Why on earth would we dismantle 20 year old ATACMS (because they are past their due date) instead of giving them to Ukraine?
Russia may win this war and they will if the force of liberty walk away. But Ukraine is fighting and dying to protect their language and nationality. Ukraine maybe unlikely to retake their eastern areas and Crimea. But Russia can lose an entire generation of men doing so.
Just like with Iran, we could tell Russia we are not doing business with you. No oil and gas sales for you. This would limit Russia's ability to continue to exert their will and over time erode the strength of their federation.
You can not equate Blinken with Erick. Blinken is the guy that put together the Hunter laptop narrative of Russian propaganda. Blinken is just another weak leader of the pathetic Biden administration. Strong leadership is need to confront Tyranny.
I think Russia is going to win in Ukraine because it’s next door to them and Russia wins these types of conflicts. They just grind down their opponent. Ukraine is running out / has run out of men to fight. The only way Ukraine can beat back Russia is if the West gets in the fight directly and then that’s WWIII. American leaders have helped get Ukraine in this awful situation by meddling and using Ukraine as their laboratory. It’s disgusting to me the Ukrainian boys are dying and many in America are willing to fight to the last Ukrainian.
Here’s the additional problem which I have heard ZERO explanations for. If Ukraine is in a fight for its existence, why is their draft age 25? And that was just very recently. It was only dropped from 27 to 25 with a major fight in their parliament. A nation fighting for its existence should have every able bodied man available. Our draft age is 18. Israel has mandatory conscription for both men and women down to age 18. I was all for supporting Ukraine to the hilt, but after I heard this I wonder how serious they are in defending their country.
We are not sending our wages to Ukraine. This is how the current deal works. We send weapons to Ukraine. Ukraine agrees to a loan (backed by Europe) to repay us for the weapons. The money is then given to our domestic arms producers to build the munitions we sent to Ukraine. So, we are really trading old weapons for new weapons and employing a lot of Americans to do so. For instance, we have several 1000 ATACMS we built in the mid 1990s that are schedule for dismantlement. We could send them to Ukraine and in exchange we loan them the value and we then use the money to build new PrSM munitions.
For example, when my dad died in 2012, we started to "clean out the house". We found boxes of 45 cal. ammunition. He was a helicopter pilot in the Army. He retired in 1981. No one wanted those rounds (1000's of them). But I will promise you if you put the rounds in the hands of a Ukrainian on the front line, he use them in a heartbeat.
Only Democrats have forgotten that their agenda is an axis of evil.
It only works that way when those espousing the 'restraint' idea are part of (or sympathize with) the oppressed class.
US foreign policy that fails to understand and factor-in Christian and Islamic eschatology is doomed at worst and ineffective at best. A baseline of absolute military superiority (which requires technological superiority) is essential for security...and peace.
It is hard for the US to be a "world Leader" when we have no serious leadership. Biden is driven by his base. He wants votes and is willing to chastise Israel on the world stage in an attempt to appease the anti semites in his base. The Democratic party is now pushed by a Progressive base which is completely pro Hamas. The Republicans are not much better. There are Republicans in the House which are embarrassing at best, MTG, and forcing moderates to have a second look at Dementia Joe Biden for some form of stability. These Republicans would rather have their time in front of a camera for fund raising while damaging the Republican party. I am having a hard time pointing out a real , strong, national leader in the US today.
Right on and "Amen!"
I wish I could say we know what the Israeli's did last night over Iran. We don't. But I suspect the F35 played a key role. We don't know what weapon system was delivered by the F35. We don't know how many. We don't know the flight path.
What we do know is that the targets were in Central Iran, which is "far" from Israel. Call it about 1000 miles. Or 200 miles round trip. How long did the F35 loiter to acquire its target? What is the combat radius of the F35.? Did the F35 refuel during the mission? The 1000 mile distance is over Jordan and Iraq. Can the F35 flyover these countries without being seen? There are a lot of questions one must ask and answer to plan this mission.
I think one also needs to understand what the F35 can do. Other than being stealthy and flying a long way, it is also a sensor platform. This Year the US enters high volume production of the PrSM (Precision strike missile). The PrSM is the next generation of the HIMARS which is the next generation of the MLRS (a 1980s weapon system). An F35 can fly over the enemy, identify a target, relay location to the PrSM and launch. This takes just a few minutes from the F35 identifing the target to the PrsM hitting the target. On a dynamic battlefield, mobility is restricted. You cannot "stop" and refuel or change the oil for a period of minutes.
I assume the Israelis hit a fixed target in Iran (missile production facility) that is difficult to reconstitute and stops Iran from producing more missiles. Do you target production facilities or production personnel? Both? What do the lawyers tell you is a legal target?
AI powered drones introduces many more questions, which makes an opponent's life far more uncomfortable.
I think we can tell our southern rural men and women to stay home and build many more weapons to arm the forces of liberty. We don't need to send our sons and daughters to fight Iran or Russia or China. We just need the determination to arm ourselves and our allies to confront the forces of liberty.
By the way, Iran should never sell another barrel of Oil or Cubic foot of gas. Now if the government is overthrown and Iran regains its liberty from the clutches of religious lunacy, then maybe they can sell some oil. This is the simplest and cheapest form of deterrence.
There are a few edits. Last word in the second to last paragraph should be tyranny.
A HUGE Amen to your last paragraph. For our Grandchildren's sake as well as ours.
I didn’t care for Gen. Colin Powell’s politics but his military views were great.
Go to war only when you have to.
Throw in the kitchen sink and make it a short war. (No generational wars)
Have an end plan before you start.
In 1914 everyone thought that the war would be over quickly. It wasn’t. The next big battle would decide the outcome. It didn’t.
I seem to be the only one who mentions that the Iranians await the coming of their Messiah, the 12th Iman. He can only return if the world is covered with blood. They are trying their best to make it happen.
Re: the Mahdi, i don't think most politicians take that fact seriously...any more than they believe what the Imams publicly declare. That's a strategic mistake, imho.
Not everyone who wants to de-escalate these conflicts or who has questions about US involvement is isolationist or anti-Semitic. Inserting such accusations shuts down important discussions. "Anti-Semitic" has become the new "racist" or "homophobic" or "TDS" that gets thrown into a conversation to end it. Ending debate isolates people and radicalizes them, instead of giving them the opportunity to change their minds. I'm worried where this country is headed when we can't talk civilly and reasonably about the most important of issues.
It is antisemitic if they call for Israel to stand down, but equally to call on Iran to stand down.
That didn't take long.
Contrary to popular belief, it is possible to (1) question the actions of the government of Israel without being anti-Semitic or (2) fully support Israel without accusing everyone who disagrees with you of being anti-Semitic. There are plenty of valid and convincing pro-Israel arguments to be made. Try making those without accusing people of hating an entire race of people. You may change someone's mind.
I am not clear on your response, but be clear with this.
There is overwhelming evidence of past and current antisemitism in this world. I don't want to prejudge every comment made by media and leaders around the globe, but the probability of antisemitism is high.
Also, we should not nitpick a tiny country trying to defend itself from actual bombs that are being launched at its citizens by a large country hellbent on its ultimate destruction.
That tiny country has invented so many positive things for humanity
and receives no Thanks. You want to increase your portfolio. Invest in Israel.I read the other day that they
Invented the USB Jump Drive.
I fully agree that there is anti-Semitism in the world and that it is increasing and usually obvious when it's present. I also largely support Israel, though I recognize that no country's government is perfect. I just think Israel supporters shouldn't accuse all those who don't support Israel of being anti-Semetic. Many are. Some aren't. My belief is that shutting down debate is actually increasing anti-Semitism, which will only hurt Jews and Israel. Batya Ungar-Sargon, a supporter of Israel, is one of the best Jewish voices on this subject.
It has always struck me as weird how Israel is just expected to tolerate everyone else in the region firing rockets and missiles in their direction like it's the weather. The fear that Israeli retaliation against Iran could provoke a larger regional war ignores that a larger regional war is already happening. The West, primarily under Biden and Obama, have been operating under the assumption that if we treat Iran with diplomacy, a nuclear deal, and send them gobs of cash that somehow moderates will take over and Iran will become an ally. In order to maintain the delusion, we ignore/let them off the hook for the funding of terror proxies throughout the region and continue to send them money despite their support for Hamas leading up to the 10/7 attack. 10/7 is a wake-up call for the Israelis because their national survival is at stake and they can't afford to suffer such delusions as the rest of the West. The Israelis can see down the road at not just the precedent set by Iran being allowed to fire missiles and drones at their territory, but how the region will change if/when Iran gets a nuclear weapon. Our leadership needs to get with the program, stop catering to the pro-Hamas Leftist psychopaths on college campus. We need to support Israel and do what needs to be done with Iran in order to prevent WWIII.
exactly
Jonah Goldberg wrote a piece for The Dispatch that used that same metaphor - that Israelis treat the constant bombardment as bad weather, and worse, the world expects them to. I was struck by what an accurate description that is (and found myself a bit stunned that I'd never thought of it that way.) No other nation is asked to just take that kind of abuse. They need, and deserve, our support.
Lead or be led.
Concise and to the point, that is one of the reasons I enjoy your website and analysis. I believe that our country is growing weak. Our enemies are gathering their forces around us. At the same time, internally, our morals, public trust, and pride in our country are destroyed by the hate America First crowd. If the U.S. fails, the world will go dark and may never recover.
Peace to all
I wholeheartedly agree. The only thing I would like to see is spending our money wisely. Stop just throwing cash at everything. Help Ukraine’s military with military stuff and strategy. What is our money buying? Is there an ammunition store somewhere over there? Just asking.
We loan a patriot system to Ukraine. The system consists of the radar system and missile batteries (I think 4). These are spread around a few square miles. Yes, the enemy can see the radar because it can sense the radar signal. But it cannot see the batteries. Severa months ago, you may have heard about 5 or 10 Russian planes being shoot down. What I bel3eive the Ukrainians did was position patriot batteries "close" to the front line and ambushed Russian planes. Unfortunately, the prevalence of Russian drones identified some of the patriot batteries and two were destroyed. But we did shoot down 2 of the Radar planes. I think Ukraine has used all its patriot missiles. They need more. So, we give them more which they agree to pay us back and we use the value to give to our domestic producers to replace the ones we gave to Ukraine. Maybe Ukraine will pay us back. Maybe we forgive the loan. I think Europe has agreed to guarantee the loan. Not sure of all the terms of the deal.
IN the early 1980s the US Army built the MLRS (multiple launch rocket system). It is now called HIMARS, which is a wheeled vehicle versus the tracked MLRS. In the 1980s we built the ATACMS. An ATACM is a larger version of the MLRS round. ThE MLRS had two banks of 4 rounds. The ATACMS fit in the space of the 4 MLRS rounds. The ATACMS could fly farther and more accurately. Now we are building the PrSM, smaller than the ATACMS with greater range and greater accuracy (harder to jam by the way). We don't build the ATACMS anymore and we have 1000s that have reached their expiration date and are scheduled to be dismantled. We could send them to Ukraine, but Biden did not want to provoke Russia. Here is another tidbit. We stopped making Stinger decades ago. A lot of the Stingers did not work. But we rehired the guys (now in their 70s) to go back into work and teach the young guys how to dismantle and "repair" the old Stingers. I think they were able to repair about 70% of the 1000 or so expired stingers. Now they are restarting the production line with new parts to replace the ones no longer able to be produced.
For many years the US used the arsenal concept. These were government facilities that produce weapons (rifles, bullets, cannons etc.) You may know of Harpers Ferry and John Browns raid. He was an abolitionist and he raided the Harper Ferry arsenal. When we brought Von Braun and his rocket scientists to the US in the late 1940s, we eventually set them up to work at Redstone Arsenal (a chemical warfare plant) that was converted to a missile plant. It became home to the US Army Missile Command and Marshall Space flight Center. The facilities at MSFC were designed to produce all the Saturn Launch Vehicles. But Congress in the 1960s saw all this money being spent and moved away from the Arsenal concept and moved to a private industry concept of weapons production.
My point is we have to rethink how we maintain and supply the forces of liberty in a world facing the tyranny of Russia, China, Iran and North Korea. BTW Japan has 21 Patriot Systesm to protect itself from the NK threat.
The West has a lot of weapons lying around that we could put to good use in Ukraine to hopefully stop Russian aggression and bleed them dry so to speak. The West has lots of arm producers that can be pressed into a higher level of production. This is complex but doable if People focus on the threat.
But the really smart thing to do is prevent Iran from selling oil and gas, allowing domestic producers great liberty to produce energy (and build modular nuclear reactors) to allow the west to isolate Russia and especially Iran. But climate change and the rise in global temps is the only existential threat the left will devote significant resources. The left is willing to empower Russia and Iran and Venezuela etc. in order to drive the west to a no CO2 future (a much poor future BTW).
Excellent explanation.
Artillery ammunition for their big guns to try and match Russia. Anti-aircraft and anti-missile systems to defend their cities and infrastructure against Russia. Armored vehicles since Ukraine doesn’t do “meat wave” attacks like the Russians. Much more, mostly built here and Western Europe.
Ukraine was doing a pretty good job and bombing the Russian refineries until Austin told them to stop. It was interfering with the price of oil and making gas prices rise here at home and that would make Biden look bad come November.
Erick, I thought NATO was formed to defend Europe against Russia. Surely they should care more about this than us. We are more in debt than any other country and technically broke.
I believe and I could be wrong, but technically we are loaning the money to Ukraine. The loan is guaranteed by Europe (whatever that means). IN turn the money is then transferred back to the US to our Arms producers to replenish our ammunition that was given to Ukraine.
The reason we are broke has nothing to do with Ukraine our military spending. It has to do with profligate spending on social welfare programs and stupid "investments" by our federal government.
Would NATO be better defensively if Ukraine was entirely taken over by Russia? What about Moldova?
From what I’ve read, that is not the case. I will grant that the U.S. wastes money in many other ways.
https://www.cfr.org/article/how-much-aid-has-us-sent-ukraine-here-are-six-charts
Loans guaranteed by Europe? Oh, that is funny...
All I know is what was stated in various news broadcasts. The deal is simple. We transfer munitions to Ukraine; we book the value. This is the loan value. The EU guarantees the loan. Then we take this value and use it to buy new munitions to replenish the stockpile.
This is the difference between the real world and lawyers, accountants and politicians trying to conform to various rules, regulations and laws. I hate it but that is the way the world works.
But Ai P. is right. When my dad arrived in Korea in 1975 as an Aviation battalion commander, he told his troops to take everything out of the hanger. The stuff we need for battle goes in one of those three trailers. Everything else we get rid of. They found 9 landing light systems. The battalion only needs one. They also found 3 brand new engines for a helicopter the Army stopped flying over 10 years earlier. So ,my dad said, send the landing light systems back to Division. Send the three engines to the South Korean unit down the road. Why did he give the engine to the Koreans. Because they still flew the helicopter. A sergeant protested. Sir, I have to record this and send it back to the depot. My dad looked at him and said, "Sergeant, if those engines are not on the back of a truck in one hour headed out the gate to the Koreans, I am writing you up." My dad's logic is simple. I am on the DMZ, with a country (the North Koreans) that have agreed to a cessation of hostilities (technically north and south Korea are still at war) and I might have to be in the battlefield in 24 hours. I would rather my allies have three brand new engines in their helicopters fighting with me.
The Army had no idea they had 8 excess landing light systems at this battalion base. And they sure did not know these three engines were there either.
The US needs to clean out the closet, send all the excess stuff we have lying around to the Ukrainians. And get on with confronting the tyranny threatening our friends and allies. Letting 1000 or so 20 year old ATACMS sit around waiting to be dismantled is just stupid.
All of the former Warsaw Pact countries in NATO are having a great garage sale handing off old Soviet defense hardware to Ukraine. They'll be restocking with NATO-standard hardware, most of it made in 'Merica by 'Mericans.
Oh yes, the news broadcasts...
Btw, England made is last WWII payment to the US Treasury in 2006. The US has often give weapons to allies on the basis of a loan. We are doing the same with Ukraine. But I have not seen the agreement in writing.
Yes, Russia has an advantage in manpower and logistics (kind of). Ukraine is limited in manpower and production capacity for arms. But Germany is not that far from Ukraine. Europe could send lots of weapons to Ukraine. The question is how much of Ukraine sovereignty is the West willing to sacrifice. All of Ukraine? Everything west of the Dnepr River? We have not lost a single American soldier in this conflict. We have spent maybe $100 billion in weapons we had stockpiled to protect NATO from a Russian attack. This money was spent in the US (mostly) to build these systems. If Ukraine wants to fight and defend their liberty, is the US willing to watch them die? In 2022, we could build 10,000 155 mm shells a month. Now I think we have expanded production to 20,000. Do you know how many 155 mm shells we fired in Afghanistan? More than you think. The US has plenty of ATACMS and various other 80s/90s weapons we are unlikely to ever use given the impact of drones on the modern battlefield. The Army clearly knows the concept of combined arms maneuver is in need of significant revision. The point is we can sit back and shrug our shoulders and let the forces of tyranny overwhelm a nation that is fighting and dying trying to survive. Or we can give them the weapons we won't use (the 1000's of ATACMS) and use the money (the billions we are spending to replace the weapons we are sending to Ukraine) to build the new weapons (the PrSM) to fill our ammunition stores.
When my father died in 2012, we started to clean out stuff. We found boxes of 45 caliber rounds he brought home after he retired from the army. These 45 cal rounds were decades old--severely tarnished. Would you put them in your pistol to work on your shooting accuracy? My cousin said, hell no am I putting that in my gun. But if we gave it to Ukraine? They use it in a heartbeat. Why on earth would we dismantle 20 year old ATACMS (because they are past their due date) instead of giving them to Ukraine?
Russia may win this war and they will if the force of liberty walk away. But Ukraine is fighting and dying to protect their language and nationality. Ukraine maybe unlikely to retake their eastern areas and Crimea. But Russia can lose an entire generation of men doing so.
Just like with Iran, we could tell Russia we are not doing business with you. No oil and gas sales for you. This would limit Russia's ability to continue to exert their will and over time erode the strength of their federation.
You can not equate Blinken with Erick. Blinken is the guy that put together the Hunter laptop narrative of Russian propaganda. Blinken is just another weak leader of the pathetic Biden administration. Strong leadership is need to confront Tyranny.
Man I admire your attempts to explain things. Excellent!
I think Russia is going to win in Ukraine because it’s next door to them and Russia wins these types of conflicts. They just grind down their opponent. Ukraine is running out / has run out of men to fight. The only way Ukraine can beat back Russia is if the West gets in the fight directly and then that’s WWIII. American leaders have helped get Ukraine in this awful situation by meddling and using Ukraine as their laboratory. It’s disgusting to me the Ukrainian boys are dying and many in America are willing to fight to the last Ukrainian.
Here’s the additional problem which I have heard ZERO explanations for. If Ukraine is in a fight for its existence, why is their draft age 25? And that was just very recently. It was only dropped from 27 to 25 with a major fight in their parliament. A nation fighting for its existence should have every able bodied man available. Our draft age is 18. Israel has mandatory conscription for both men and women down to age 18. I was all for supporting Ukraine to the hilt, but after I heard this I wonder how serious they are in defending their country.
We are not sending our wages to Ukraine. This is how the current deal works. We send weapons to Ukraine. Ukraine agrees to a loan (backed by Europe) to repay us for the weapons. The money is then given to our domestic arms producers to build the munitions we sent to Ukraine. So, we are really trading old weapons for new weapons and employing a lot of Americans to do so. For instance, we have several 1000 ATACMS we built in the mid 1990s that are schedule for dismantlement. We could send them to Ukraine and in exchange we loan them the value and we then use the money to build new PrSM munitions.
For example, when my dad died in 2012, we started to "clean out the house". We found boxes of 45 cal. ammunition. He was a helicopter pilot in the Army. He retired in 1981. No one wanted those rounds (1000's of them). But I will promise you if you put the rounds in the hands of a Ukrainian on the front line, he use them in a heartbeat.