Is Gavin Newsom in Trouble?

This is a transcript from my radio show yesterday. Today’s show is about to start and you can listen live here.

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The more the California recall becomes a Gavin Newsom versus Larry Elder race, the more likely it is that Gavin Newsom wins. The reason is that California is a clear Democrat-leaning state. So if you make it Newsom versus conservative Republican Larry Elder, then people are going to vote to keep Newsom in office. If it's all about Newsom and it becomes about all of the failures on his watch, the collapse of the California economy and the like, then it becomes about Gavin Newsom and he loses.

There's real worry by the way, that Gavin Newsom and the Democrats have not locked up the Latino vote in California. The Latino voters in California are looking at Larry Elder. He's polling very well with them. They're tired of Gavin Newsom. They feel left behind. They feel like Newsom's policies have hurt them in their businesses, and their jobs. But the moment you make it Newsom versus Elder, Newsom still has an overwhelming democratic state to go in his direction. But some of this is starting to border on the absurd. Jean Guerrero is a columnist of the Los Angeles Times. I'm not making this up. This is the headline, How Anti-California Propaganda And Racism Are Driving The Recall.

"In the summer of 2019 as early efforts to recall governor Gavin Newsom foundered, right-wing commentators launched a smear campaign against California to discredit its progressive policies and stoke anger at its leaders. They co-opted a myth popularized by white supremacists, and neo-Nazis, and border vigilantes of the 1990s across San Diego and Orange Counties. And which conservative organizers such as the Claremont Institute have spent years pedaling. California is a third world state decaying due to racial diversity."

No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no.

California is a failed third-world state. It has nothing to do with racial diversity. She's making that part up. This belies the fact that Larry Elder, a black man, is in the front of the pack. Now, I believe she is the same woman who said that Larry Elder is the black face for white supremacy. I think she may be. Somebody at the Los Angeles Times did.

Months into Newsom's term, Fox News personalities claimed zombies were taking over California streets and aired dozens of segments on the disproportionally brown and black homeless population. In the National Review, Victor Davis Hanson, a Hoover Institute Senior Fellow, called California America's first third-world state. A place filled with a spiking population of history's banes of fleas, lice, and rats. He's not wrong.

Have you been to California? There's literally a Google third-party app that pulls up a Google map and shows you where all the human poop is in San Francisco. In San Francisco, there's human poop. There are heroin needles everywhere. I've got friends of mine who lived in San Francisco who have fled the city because it's so bad. It's a third-world hell hole. There are parts of Los Angeles that are not much better. There's always Beverly Hills, which is fantastic if you're rich, but if you're poor, it's not. You've got gang violence. You've got the crime wave growing in California.

Yet this woman in the Los Angeles Times wants you to know that it's racism that is getting a black man into the lead in the California recall. And I think, I think this is the same woman. It was somebody in the Los Angeles Times who said that Larry Elder was the black face of white supremacy, or white nationalism, or white racism, or some such. It's ridiculous. When you are a progressive, woke, everything is racism that you disagree with. The fact of the matter is Gavin Newsom, there's a good chance he's recalled.

This goes to show you the level of coordination between parts of the press and the Democratic party. As long as they can make it about Larry Elder, because his name ID only, Newsom has a shot. Kevin Falconer is a more moderate Republican, who is well-organized in the state with the Republican party there. But he is having a hard time overcoming Larry Elder's name ID. Larry Elder is a popular California radio show host.

He's got a national platform, but he's overwhelmingly listened to in Southern California. And so he's got a huge platform. He's got a high name ID, and favorables from his audience. Yet Falconer, who's the guy that the California Republican party wants, is having a hard time overcoming Elder's name ID. The fact though that a black man has the high name ID and the favorability to get elected kind of discredits all of the talk about white supremacy and racism in California. But the left can't let it go because, I mean, it is the thing that white, rich Progressive's have seized on.

The reason they're bringing up Elder so much is because if Newsom and Elder are tied together, it becomes a race between Gavin Newsom and Larry Elder. If it's just Newsom, Newsom loses. Newsom loses because he's been a nuisance to California. He has allowed his kids to go mask-free at camps, while demanding everyone else wear masks. He has dined at restaurants during lockdown when no one else was allowed to. He has shown himself to be an aristocrat when he's forcing all the other people to be serfs in the field. He held himself to a higher double standard of a looser standard than everyone else and people resent it. People resent the lockdowns. People resent the mask mandates. People resent the filling in of skate parks with sand, so people couldn't be outside. People resent Gavin Newsom squandering the economy in California.

This is the first time California will not see an increase in its number of representatives in the US House because of a loss of population under Gavin Newsom. People resent that, so they're willing to make a change. People just frankly aren't willing to change him with a Republican in an election, it's got to be a recall. This gives the Republicans an advantage and Democrats are getting very, very nervous. This recall is coming up. The odds are still in Gavin Newsom's favor and the odds for Gavin Newsom go up the more they make it Gavin Newsom versus Larry Elder. But if Californians just focus on Gavin Newsom, he gets hurt and Latino voters in California are not locked in for Gavin Newsom. They are not sold on him. And that's giving Democrats heartburn at night.