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My Final Assessment
Look, I am putting myself out there for the shots if I’m wrong. I get that. But I might as well.
Here are the things you have to keep in mind. History does not care. History is history. It does not pick a winner or loser. It is until the final day, and then there is one winner and His team. Until then, we go through it.
Historically, presidents’ parties fair poorly in midterms. Presidents’ parties who control both houses of Congress during the midterms fair worse because the voters blame them exclusively for problems. Presidents’ parties who control both houses of Congress during midterms and who see us head into economically troubling times fair worst of all.
It is, after all, the economy, stupid. Democracy is an abstraction to voters who are deeply cynical of the democratic claims of both parties. Gas prices are real. So too are grocery prices.
When the incumbent President’s party loses both the Virginia gubernatorial race and the Virginia House of Delegates before a midterm election, the President’s party tends to be in for a real ass-kicking.
When the above happens and the President’s approval rating average is in the low 40’s, the President’s party tends to be in for a real ass-kicking.
When the President is a Democrat whose approval is in the low 40’s, and the GOP is ahead on the generic ballot, doom awaits.
For the last year, because of some races in Washington State, a poorly worded abortion referendum in Kansas, and some special elections around the country, Democrats have pushed a narrative in the media that 2022 is different because of the Dobbs decision.
But, here at the end, all the momentum has headed to the GOP. When the President and Vice President have to campaign in deeply blue territory, and we’re suddenly seeing them trying to prop up Democrats in Washington and New Hampshire who were not in trouble a few weeks ago, something is really happening and none of it is good for Democrats.
In the summer, Democrats won several special elections and New York congressional races appeared off the table for the GOP, even after redistricting. That so many Democrats in New York are now in trouble, including the Governor, is another indicator that something out there is happening.
Here’s my first theory.
I think the national political press is both sympathetic to Democrats overall and hostile to Republicans overall, and the political press itself has bought the narrative that the GOP is a threat to democracy.
Consequently, I think the political press is far more likely to play up and overplay positive news for Democrats that paints a picture of 2022 defying historical norms. The press, like the Democrats, wants to believe it.
Here’s my second theory.
On top of wanting to believe it, the press is far more worried about bullying from the left when the press defies the election narrative set by Democrats.
Consider Erik Wemple of the Washington Post, who admitted he kept quiet about the New York Times’s editor, James Bennett, for two years. The Times fired Bennett for publishing an essay by Tom Cotton that incited progressives in and around the press. Wemple, a media critic at the Post, admitted he largely avoided speaking up about the story to protect himself from the pitchforks and torches.
I think the same is happening now.
Were MSNBC to come out and tell the Democrats the Dobbs case won’t save them and history won’t be denied its scalps, the progressive viewers and Twitterati would burn down the building, metaphorically.
Conservatives tend to be nicer than progressives when we disagree with the press. Therefore, the press is more scared of telling the left difficult truths. Add to it the press’s general sympathies for the left, and it becomes far more difficult to declare a red wave than a blue wave.
Here’s my third theory.
I think the GOP has a very good election night.
I think the GOP wins Nevada and Georgia while holding Wisconsin and therefore takes the Senate. I think the GOP could get thirty-five seats in the U.S. House.
I think Dr. Oz v. Fetterman is far too close to call in Pennsylvania and that more Pennsylvania voters than you realize would rather have a native vegetable than transplanted New Jerseyan. That doesn’t mean Oz can’t win. But I won’t put money on it.
What I will put money on is that if he loses, Republicans will yet again claim the election was stolen, even if it is not. But I also think if it is very close, Oz better have some incredible lawyers.
In Arizona, I’m inclined to think Blake Masters wins.
Here’s my fourth theory.
I think Lee Zeldin wins in New York, and the issue is crime.
The give away here is Edward-Isaac Dovere. Dovere is a reliable progressive and also a CNN reporter. His friends in the press may deny it, but Dovere is of the left and is one of the White House’s favorite reporters. He’s running a story at CNN about Democrats blaming Eric Adams for Kathy Hochul’s pending loss.
The Democrats are setting up a fall guy, and New York’s mayor is it. The hilarious reason is that Adams highlighted New York crime and Democrats claim crime is not a problem in New York even though it is.
Because Adams shattered their narrative, he must be the fall guy. Also, look at Democrats attacking Adams behind the scenes for deviating from their narrative and go read my second theory again.
Here’s my fifth theory.
Democrats will not accept their losses and accept no blame. They will claim it was Elon Musk at Twitter. They will claim it was Russians. They will claim it was voter suppression. They will claim it was angry voters. They will claim it was racists. They will claim it was misinformation, lies, and fears. They will not acknowledge they must make changes.
Here’s my sixth theory.
Joe Biden is over. The media is already beginning to slow walk the negative stories to the front page. That will accelerate. Joe Biden is too old, spends too much time in Delaware, has trouble concentrating, and has abdicated his leadership to others in the White House who will throw him under the bus on background.
Kamala Harris is done too. She’s been largely absent on the campaign trail. She says other stupid things and is never well prepared. The press will savage her more than Biden because they feel bad about Biden and actually like him.
No one really likes Harris.
Here’s my seventh theory.
There will be more riots. The left has internalized the GOP is a threat to democracy. There will be violence and riots from the left. The media will accept no responsibility for escalating tensions over democratic threats and will largely find ways to excuse or downplay what happens. That then helps the GOP.
Here’s my eighth theory.
Crime, homelessness, inflation, gas prices, and everything else will suddenly be covered very prominently by the political press and the spin will be that everything got worse after the GOP took over.
This goes back to the first theory. The press is sympathetic to the Democrats and despises the GOP more now than ever. So all the things from which the press has provided Democrats cover will suddenly become the problems the GOP said they were, but the GOP will be blamed.
Here’s my ninth theory.
Beto O’Rourke will run again for something — probably Mayor of El Paso. Maybe, one day, he will want to spend time with his family.
Stacey Abrams will become a race hustler in the vein of Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton. She won’t seek office again for some time but will make good money shaking down corporations and Democratic donors in the name of racial injustice.
She wore Tennessee orange on TV the day the University of Georgia played the University of Tennessee. She’s done caring, knows she is toast, and will fundraise off racial grievances hereafter.
Her failures will cost Raphael Warnock his seat on Tuesday, sparing Georgia a runoff. Abrams will get blamed locally, but not by the national press that made her. She will leave the reality of Georgia for the fiction of United Earth and buy a house in Los Angeles.