One Day More

I am in the minority and think we will have a good sense of who the winner is by midnight after polls close tomorrow. I know that whoever wins, the other side will say it was stolen.

The reality is pretty simple. Based on the fundamentals, Donald Trump should win. But based on emotions, Harris should win.

The fundamentals are that this election comes as the incumbent White House party has wrecked the American economy. The press claims we’re doing better than every other country, which is true, but the reality is voters vote on microeconomic issues and not macroeconomic issues. At the microeconomic level, prices are still too high and not offset enough by growth in wages. Gas is higher than when Trump left office. The border is less secure and American communities are overflowing with illegal aliens. International gang activity in the heartland is on the rise. Abroad, we are less stable and less secure. The Chinese have hacked into our internet service providers and have access to our data. The Biden Administration does not know how to stop them from that access. Iran is on the verge of more strikes against Israel. Americans are still being held hostage by Hamas.

And did you see the jobs numbers on Friday?

Emotionally, if you are reading this you are probably voting for Donald Trump and might be in such a bubble that you do not understand the anxiety he provokes in people. You can say “mean tweets,” but it is more than that. People do believe Trump brings out the worst in others. He is outlandish. He did provoke people to go into the Capitol on January 6th. He is a narcissistic whose supporters can be crude, vulgar, mean, and bullying to those who lean Trump, but dare criticize him. Harris may be inept, but a lot of Trump supporters do not understand how many Americans would rather stay with Team Inept than Team Asshole, pardon my language.

I’m sure there will be people in the comments who insist that no, actually, that’s the other side. But you miss my point — you see the race as you see the race and I’m telling you a majority of Americans see exactly the opposite of you. It has shown up consistently in the data for eight years. Voters think Harris is inept and have no idea what she’d really stand for. They know what Trump would do. They just really don’t like him. Emotional creatures go with emotion, not reason.

The fundamentals should win the race. Regardless of whether people like Trump or not, a majority of Americans actually do think his Administration delivered a more stable world with better economics. That should prevail.

A tipping point came last Sunday. That the campaign thought an insult comic should start the last week of the campaign with racial insults just reminded a lot of people, again, that they like neither Trump nor those who surround him. And then, five miles from me on Sunday night, Trump let Herschel Walker introduce him. Walker, a very nice guy, is also a man who lost Georgia two years ago after being blasted by his son and revelations that he’d pointed a gun at his ex-wife and was physically abusive. Trump’s last week has been unstable and off message.

I think the New York Times/Sienna poll and Ann Selzer polling are not showing us Kamala Harris will win. I think, however, they are showing us that in the end a lot of fence sitters decided they really didn’t want four more years of an Insult Machine in the White House and late breakers moved towards Harris. Also, I think progressive white women love to talk to pollsters, which has put more of a bias in polling than most realize.

I don’t think a late shift to Harris will be enough though. I think enough voters are genuinely frustrated with the direction of the country that they’ll go with Trump. I also suspect polling still undercounts Trump voters.

The early voting trend lines actually suggest a good night for the GOP and Trump. I think whoever in Trumpland decided Hinchcliffe was fine needs to never work in politics again, whether Trump wins or loses. I think the late jobs numbers and the Biden “garbage” comment mitigate the comedian. I think Herschel Walker’s intro will not be that big a deal because it comes at the end of the last Sunday before the election.

Also, Robert Kennedy, Jr. proclaiming flouride will be banned from drinking water if Trump gets elected is just so fringe. Don’t be surprised some people decide to vote Harris or not vote because they want the freaks far away from the White House.

My guess is that Trump wins. But I won’t be at all surprised if Harris wins.

If Trump wins, the Democrats and the media need to ask themselves if covering for Joe Biden as long as they both did wound up destroying all their credibility.

If Trump loses, his supporters need to ask themselves if they really thought a man who couldn’t stop his re-election from being stolen when he was President really ever had a chance of stopping the steal as an outsider and why on earth would you go with that guy a second time?

Because we all know, if Trump loses, nothing about his loss will matter. It’ll just be stolen again. That means his supporters will never have to acknowledge they backed the weakest Republican and pretty much any other Republican would be set up for a massive win.

If Harris loses, Democrats and the press will need to re-assess just how left on culture and economics their wealthy socialist supporters have pushed them and maybe, just maybe, understand that boys really shouldn’t be in girls’ sports and Americans really expect an apology for what they did to the economy.

The Democrats and the press lack the capacity for self-reflection, but four years of lecturing Americans that they’re doing better than the Americans believe they are only to see jobs revised downward by a million a month before the election followed by a 12,000 increase and an additional two months downward revision the Friday before should really tell them something.

If Trump wins, and I suspect he might, the Democrats and press are going to tear themselves apart and it will be deserved. But the press’s ratings will go up.

On a more personal note, I think too many reporters in Washington and New York have become arrogant, condescending, and inside a progressive bubble. They elevate Republican voices who hate Republicans. They do not appreciate the concerns of many ordinary Middle Class Americans who actually do think letting minors chop off their breasts or penises is insane and it is even more insane to let a male with a penis hang out in the girls’ bathrooms. By the way, all that stuff actually is happening.

They’ve decided a lot of Americans are just not smart and do not like them and it shows in their coverage.

I think it is nuts that Democrats think it is no big deal to fill the country with illegal aliens and transform some local communities and cultures into islands of third world non-English speakers who overwhelm social services all while the media says it is not happening and it is bigoted if you complain about it.

I think the Democrats have been feckless and weak in how they are letting Ukraine defend itself and have given into their antisemitic impulses in dealing with Israel. Because they hate Netanyahu, they have forced Israel to pull punches that should have been thrown. I think they have looked and acted weak to China and have emboldened our enemies.

To the south of us, China, Iran, and Russia are presently working with both the Cubans and Venezuelans while our sitting President drools on the beach and Democrats tell us he is okay. Haiti has collapsed and is ripe for foreign influence.

I think Democrats wrecked this economy and used members of the press to blame Trump for their own profligate spending. I think members of the press hate Donald Trump so much that they went all in on helping Kamala Harris. I think Democrats and the media have conspired together to destroy the credibility of the United States Supreme Court not because of its decisions process or appearances of impropriety, but because they do not control it. I look at the reaction to NBC News hiring Ronna McDaniel and the Atlantic hiring Kevin Williamson and the collective freak out about the Washington Post choosing not to endorse anyone and I think they need to be humbled.

And I think a group of people who think their children might need to miss school because of the psychological pain of losing need to lose to build their character and the weak children they have raised. A country cannot sustain itself and be prosperous when held hostage to the whims of neurotic wealthy white progressive women who write big checks to Democrats.

So yeah, I do actually hope Donald Trump wins. As much as I don’t care for him, I care for the other side even less. They are the authoritarians they warned us about and don’t even realize it.

But wow the GOP will get annihilated in the 2026 midterms if Trump wins.