Reality Check

I have to be really, really honest with all of you — not that I am ever not honest with you, but there are some things I just don’t say out loud. So let me say that thing.

I really did think for a good portion of the year that I’d be spending the last month of this election slowly building my audience of readers and listeners to a place where they could accept Trump's loss without immediately descending into stolen election conspiracy theories.

Instead, I find myself having to rein myself in from explicitly saying he has won thirteen days before the election. This is rather wild.

On the surface, this is a tied race. I thought it might be helpful for you and me to review some of the basic data on where things stand right now because I don’t think I am crazy. I actually believe a tied race helps Trump, considering his historic overperformance in the polls.

So here are the data points.

According to polling averages, the people most likely to vote are those who voted in 2016 and 2020. Kamala Harris is winning those people by about five points.

Low-propensity voters are still voters. They show up in presidential years, not midterms. So Trump could win this year and then see the GOP suffer a generational wipeout in 2026 as his base does not turn out for people not named Trump.

But low propensity voters still vote in presidential election years.

Early voting totals tell us little right now, but they do suggest that low-propensity voters are participating in early voting.

Democrats tend to win the early vote and are winning it right now. But Republicans are holding closer than they have in the past few years, which suggests election-skeptical Republicans are participating in early voting and not just voting on Election Day.

In Nevada, a state I believe Harris will win, her polling is collapsing. The trendline is distinctly down enough that even Nate Silver is noticing it.

Kari Lake will get crushed in Arizona, but the trend for Trump is positive, with momentum in his direction.

In Georgia, Trump is winning. Black voter turnout is lower than it should be. North Georgia Republicans are outpacing their 2020 and 2022 turnout.

In North Carolina, it is close, but Trump is campaigning hard there.

In Pennsylvania, the Senate race has moved from Democrat to toss-up, and Bob Casey is now running ads featuring Donald Trump.

Kamala Harris is redeploying resources from Wisconsin ad buys to Philadelphia ad buys as Pennsylvania Democrats sound the alarm that her team is failing to generate voter turnout in Philly.

McCormick and Trump are both surging in Western Pennsylvania.

In Michigan, the Democrat Senate candidate is openly distancing herself from Harris and Biden.

In Wisconsin, it is the same story with the Democrat incumbent, who voted to impeach Trump, running ads about how she and he see eye to eye on issues.

Harris has decided to campaign in Texas, Florida, and Kentucky in the last thirteen days. She will not win those three states but might save some Democrats. In doing so, she is off the campaign trail in swing states that are publicly tied in the polling. This, as I said late yesterday, is what Bob Dole did in 1996, conceding afterward that he knew he was losing and wanted to bolster the Republican congressional numbers.

Trump is doing more events in swing states than Harris. Today, for example, Trump will hit multiple states, and Harris will be off the campaign trail.

Behind the scenes, Democrats are increasingly frustrated with Harris’s team and more openly complain about Harris, her campaign, and Joe Biden. Some of that is making it to the national media.

Trump looks like he is having a good time. Harris looks miserable on the campaign trail, and she and her surrogates sound frustrated.

Harris starts with joy and ends with fear. She hasn’t separated herself from Joe Biden.

Democrats are lecturing Americans. Republicans are making them laugh.

65% of Americans are unhappy with the status quo.

52% of Americans say they are worse off today than they were four years ago, according to Gallup.

62% of Americans say the economy is “getting worse,” also according to Gallup.

A majority view Harris as the status quo.

Trump has slightly higher likeability than Harris.

For the first time in 40 years, more Americans identify as Republican than Democrat.

Republicans and Trump lead on who will fix the economy, immigration, inflation, and crime — the top four issues in voters’ minds.

Polling trends show a shift to Trump; Democrat Senate candidates are now using Trump in their ads; Harris is abandoning swing states to shore up congressional races; and Democrats instead of Republicans are already publicly attacking their own side.

It continues to feel like Trump has momentum, and the Democrats are increasingly vocal that Trump needs low-propensity voters. He does. However, a low-propensity voter is still likely to vote in presidential elections.

Oh, by the way, last night Kamala Harris rejected the idea of religious exemptions for abortion, which means she’d seek to force religious hospitals and staff to perform abortions against their will in violation of their conscience. A lot of religious voters who David French’s argument for Harris might have persuaded just dropped that idea and will now vote Trump or leave it blank.